Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
2 minutes ago, Terminal Moraine said:

Not so sure about that, Knocker. Although the low approaches from the south west it then swings north/north east across the Midlands and exits over the North Sea somewhere near the Wash. That would take its area of precipitation north across the whole of southern England, the Midlands and into the southern half of northern England, probably with some temporary sleet and snow on its northern edge and particularly over any high ground.

Oh I wouldn't disagree with that TM. This morning's does have the precipitation SE of the line Bristol to the Wash and with cold air to the north who knows. Very much a knife edge situation and any minor adjustments alters the position considerable.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent

Models - mixed signals!

Well, still very early days and we're not even into the Winter months yet!

The encouraging part is the pattern/set-up at this early stage is markedly different to the past few winters.

Of course, this can and probably will change to more of a default pattern during the next few weeks!

But, there's still much to play for and hopefully our patience might pay-off by the time we get to January or February 2017?

Realistically though, as many have already said, it takes a virtual miracle to get really cold & snowy conditions entrenched across our temperate little island!  

Here's hoping!

Edited by snowblizzard
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Snow as far south as Wales by Sunday night most will be over high ground though some may fall temporally to lower levels

114-780UK.GIF?16-0

Long term NW Scotland keeps the snow longest as you'd expect

240-780UK.GIF?16-0

Rainfall totals in the SW get between 80mm and 90mm in week 2 on this run from GFS - Look at Portugal at the same time 150mm + possible for them

prec4.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

Hi,

Perhaps someone can educate me. Attached you have T192 temp anomalies for 2m and 850 hPa. As you see, where 850 hPa is showing no anomaly or even a warm one, the 2m is showing a strong cold anomaly. What am I missing?

 

gfs_t850_sig_eur_33.png

gfs_t2m_anom_eur_33.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
9 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Well, this is the Model Output Forum so I guess it's OK to look ahead and try to form some idea of what might be in store even though the models cant be expected to know exactly what the weather will do more than a few days ahead.   When I look at this:

image.pngr

I can't help comparing it to this:

image.png

which ultimately led to this:

image.png

History tells us what happened next.....

The current set up looks like the start of something special to me.....

It's not a million miles away is it.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

All the main models continue to forecast a deepening wave depression over the weekend. Probably no wonder considering the pronounced Baroclinic Boundary along the polar front. However, as of this moment there is nothing to report on the latest synoptic charts, so its all still in the air or in the laps of the various numericals. Expect further volatile outcomes in the models for another 48 hours, after that we should know the track and intensity of the low. It really all depends how far south the Polar Front and Jet resides before the formation starts. Could track further south or north, I at this stage think the former.

 C

Edited by carinthian
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
18 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Hi,

Perhaps someone can educate me. Attached you have T192 temp anomalies for 2m and 850 hPa. As you see, where 850 hPa is showing no anomaly or even a warm one, the 2m is showing a strong cold anomaly. What am I missing?

 

gfs_t850_sig_eur_33.png

gfs_t2m_anom_eur_33.png

Hello jvenge. That is because 850hpa temps don't always match surface conditions. Temperature inversions for example can see cold surface air pool under a lid of warmer uppers. This is often occurs under high pressure in the winter months and is referred to by some people on this forum as 'faux cold' although I hate the term myself because as far as I'm concerned if I walk outside and it is cold then it doesn't matter to me what the temperature is 1500m up, I just feel cold and thats it.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

06z coming up, it will be interesting to see the track of the low this weekend. The ECM had it further south keeping the UK in colder air (something Knocker mentioned earlier), this may give us the chance of something wintry further South on higher ground.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The best news so far today is the GEFS mean which once again shows plenty of support for a blocked, locked in cold mid / longer range pattern with a scandi trough, height rises to the west / northwest and a flow between N / NE..charts I posted already this morning.:)

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Id have to agree with geordiesnow earlier.Even given great background signals - poss ssw- tanking nao -ete its not a precursor to epic snow events in the uk. The pv will if things tramspire will continue to fail to form to its usual strength ete but any blocking can and will form in a number of possible areas.Below average temps "which ian mentioned" does not exclude a mlb or a block over the uk.Given inversion ete some low temps can and do happen esp in december onwards.My main point is esp for new members is there are a varied number of options during a -nao and blocking situation so which include dry and not snowy outcome synoptics wise

Just a thought to temper expectations.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by swfc
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

This is exactly what I was saying yesterday - all the nice blocked charts have stayed at D10 for a few days now, and as we get nearer the time, they start to somewhat fade away. Nothing too overwhelming to see as far as I'm concerned.

Agreed. Same as almost every Winter. Charts 10 days out seldom come to fruition. Winter will ramp up in the 'usual' way for UK come December. (Gut feeling)

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
7 hours ago, jules216 said:

Finally got home from my troublesome snowy trip in Tatra Mountains and hereby presenting you a link to an Italian site that describes the Ecmwf interpretation of December,that is some cold! http://www.freddofili.it/14887-dicembre-ultime-proiezioni-ecmwfens-freddissime-gelo-dalla-russia/

Despite the long range uncertainties of this sequence, I like the way very cold air is predicted to pool in Central Europe.  This is another important factor which we need if we are to get a much colder than average winter - with this Siberian sourced air in place an easterly will be that much colder.  There are so many different ways this could play out but at least it's looking possible to get a really amazing result from the present model output - we haven't been able to say that about the output at this time of year for many years.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
16 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Despite the long range uncertainties of this sequence, I like the way very cold air is predicted to pool in Central Europe.  This is another important factor which we need if we are to get a much colder than average winter - with this Siberian sourced air in place an easterly will be that much colder.  There are so many different ways this could play out but at least it's looking possible to get a really amazing result from the present model output - we haven't been able to say that about the output at this time of year for many years.

Nice, I like the look of this link - although I can't read Italian - looks like an Easterly signal though.

Onto this run, at 144 there is better WAA into Greenland, hopefully this helps the block that should form to be slightly further North.  We shall see.

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
38 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

 Winter will ramp up in the 'usual' way for UK come December. (Gut feeling)

I don't think it will be as awful as last December though, the models have a more seasonal flavour with at least some cold indicated both in the short, medium and GloSea5 longer range.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden

Still looks quite mild overall until the last days of november ( yes all parts of west europé) and lots of rain, after a dry late spring, summer and early autumn we still need to rise the groundwater levels up to normal. GFS were showing straight northerly winds the first day of december and in todays runs they are gone, fantastic! :nonono:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 hour ago, carinthian said:

All the main models continue to forecast a deepening wave depression over the weekend. Probably no wonder considering the pronounced Baroclinic Boundary along the polar front. However, as of this moment there is nothing to report on the latest synoptic charts, so its all still in the air or in the laps of the various numericals. Expect further volatile outcomes in the models for another 48 hours, after that we should know the track and intensity of the low. It really all depends how far south the Polar Front and Jet resides before the formation starts. Could track further south or north, I at this stage think the former.

 C

Just to follow on from the earlier post, there we have it , pressure falling and wave development at 48 hours between Newfoundland and Southern Tip of Greenland. Expect the low  development to follow the path of the Polar Front. On this present runs takes it further South.

 C

h500slp.png

Edited by carinthian
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...