Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[knocker]

 

[Johnp]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Over the years the ECM / UKMO has pretty much thumped the GFS in Scandi High Scenarios, however the atlantic ridge in this scenario is equally as plausable from the GFS ( against the background signal ) as the ECM is - which is flatter but likely to be excellent at day 11 -

we could end up with middle ground here which is equally as good in the long run - Generally High pressure to the North in that 'sausage' shape usually retrogrades back towards greenland anyway-

I would say its good news & win win either way...

Agreed. I'm not sure what all the bed wetting regarding the ECM was about, but I'm pretty sure by day 15 the ECM would be very similar to the GFS.

p.s can someone remind IDO of tonight's runs, the next time he accuses ECM of overdoing blocking?

[Cheshire Freeze]

There's clearly ramifications in the closer timescales RE how that upstream low is handled...IF the ECM is proven correct then my old age comment about the ensembles being pretty meaningless will hold true because the GEFS are fully behind the GFS op in that regard. If they flip (as I've seen them do before) then in my eyes ensemble agreement and clustering is relatively useless as they just follow the flaw that caused the op to be wrong in the first place. 

Edited November 15, 2016 by CreweCold

[Ali1977]

When are the ECM ENS out, it will be interesting G to see if the Op has support!!

[Frosty.]

The GEM 12z also finishes on a high note..literally

Frost & Fog

[nick sussex]

 From the NJ State Forecaster, still waiting for the later update which should be out within the hour.

For now, I have
put a bit more weight on the GFS which shows eastward movement a
bit slower than the ECMWF. This would match the large scale
pattern only showing 4 Rossby waves at this time (indicating not
too progressive). Have included a mention of snow from Sunday
afternoon through Monday, but this will remain uncertain until
there is better model agreement on the exact track of the low.

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

When are the ECM ENS out, it will be interesting G to see if the Op has support!!

10pm for short I think.

[The Northern Ramper]

If the 18z holds firm then I am going to do something I haven't done in six years model watching and that's back the gfs over the ecm.

The Gfs is so Atlantic driven that when it consistently shows blocking its time to sit up and take note. Historically it models Greenland highs better than the ecm.

[Grimers]

The GFS model shows cold and unsettled conditions for all parts of the UK from Thursday to Sunday! 

       

Edited November 15, 2016 by Grimers

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

10pm for short I think.

9pm for the whole runs.

[booferking]

The mean looking better than the op ECM 144hr 

[Summer Sun]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

When are the ECM ENS out, it will be interesting G to see if the Op has support!!

Out now

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

[fergieweather]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

9pm for the whole runs.

We have the 10d meteograms already for 12z. The DET runs right at mildest end of T2 spread, but this sort of marked disjunction versus ensembles has been typical of some recent runs. The most important signal remains the conspicuous spread from Sunday onwards. As I've mentioned in previous posts, we're not expecting speedy resolution to this kerfuffle and raft of outcomes post-Sunday (and rest of Nov) remain possible. 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

We have the 10d meteograms already for 12z. The DET runs right at mildest end of T2 spread, but this sort of marked disjunction versus ensembles has been typical of some recent runs. The most important signal remains the conspicuous spread from Sunday onwards. As I've mentioned in previous posts, we're not expecting speedy resolution to this kerfuffle and raft of outcomes post-Sunday (and rest of Nov) remain possible. 

Thanks for the update - yes the 10 day mean updates on meteociel  at 830 and the dutch site have the full 15d graph at 9 along with the usual suspects that describe them to us on here around the same time so presumed 9 was the time they were fully out.

Edited November 15, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

We have the 10d meteograms already for 12z. The DET runs right at mildest end of T2 spread, but this sort of marked disjunction versus ensembles has been typical of some recent runs. The most important signal remains the conspicuous spread from Sunday onwards. As I've mentioned in previous posts, we're not expecting speedy resolution to this kerfuffle and raft of outcomes post-Sunday (and rest of Nov) remain possible. 

As an employed control freak, this uncertainty is my worst nightmare 

thanks for the update though Ian, appreciated as always. 

Side note from an earlier post (not Ian) the 18z won't decide anything..ever! 

Edited November 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z ens mean also finishes on a high note..literally

Frost & Fog

[A.J]

*sigh*......some off-topic waffle removed....please stay on topic

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Impressive

What is?

 

BFTP

[Zakos]

AO firmly set to dive negative now.

Also, for the first time (to my knowledge) this season, we have a significant cluster of runs sending the NAO deeply negative.

I dont believe Ive seen such a significant cluster heading below -2 at all this autumn, its been hovering around neutral for many month now.

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2016 by Zakos

[Spah1]

Can anyone advise how to view model and regional discussion archives before 2012. Can't seem to be able find out how to do it. 

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ECM 12z ens mean also finishes on a high note..literally

Frost & Fog

Nice Frosty, lets get those soil temps down with some nice sharp frosts, then the low  slides North and BOOM - maybe!! Quite possible though!!

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

We have the 10d meteograms already for 12z. The DET runs right at mildest end of T2 spread, but this sort of marked disjunction versus ensembles has been typical of some recent runs. The most important signal remains the conspicuous spread from Sunday onwards. As I've mentioned in previous posts, we're not expecting speedy resolution to this kerfuffle and raft of outcomes post-Sunday (and rest of Nov) remain possible. 

 

 

 

Glad, you're thinking what I'm thinking, well matching up to my thoughts at least.

Post Sunday everyone. Don't go looking into things in too much detail at ALL is all I'll say. WAA either side of the trough and will be in the middle or will we be under the influence of the WAA thereafter, we simply DO NOT KNOW the answer yet, sadly, although it's all part of the fun of chase. Gut feeling tells me my special November prediction could yet come off. 

Edited November 15, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Banbury]

The main thing is the Atlantic looks pretty much out of the equation , lets be honest that is one big obstacle out of the way

 

 

 

P.S why does my screen keep scrolling down grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[damianslaw]

34 minutes ago, Ramp said:

If the 18z holds firm then I am going to do something I haven't done in six years model watching and that's back the gfs over the ecm.

The Gfs is so Atlantic driven that when it consistently shows blocking its time to sit up and take note. Historically it models Greenland highs better than the ecm.

Agree with you on this, the GFS does tend to be the better model with regard to developments over Greenland, as opposed to ECM which tends to model developments over scandinavia much better. I do tend to take much more notice of the GFS when it holds firm with the idea of height rises over Greenland. Alas as others have stated, the ECM run if it went out to day 11 and 12 would no doubt show retrogression of heights towards Greenland, as we have a deep trough anchored over scandi which thanks to the meridional jetstream forecast profile will ease southwards forcing heights to ridge north. Both models are therefore consistent in the theme of strong mid atlantic heights ridging north towards Greenland with the UK exposed to polar air, sitting on the cold side of the jet.

Before such a potential polar plunge occurs, we have a very interesting situation developing over the weekend, with the GFS and UKMO showing a secondary low development scenario, and a possible slider event, with the chance of a significant snowfall for northern parts, depending on its track. At this range lots of room for changes, but some places may see another surprise snowfall event before the week is out.

In the short term - tomorrow will see the last of the temporary milder conditions, as we see increasingly chilly air invade from the north, expect blustery showers Thursday and Friday, with snow showers down to increasingly lower levels in the north as the week wears on and the return of frost. Its turning into a very interesting November.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Channel low all but disappeared on the 12Z..... this the pick of the bunch for Sunday

LP wheels away SW to NE should be interesting to say the least.

Attached archives from 19th 20th November 1988 I was out "in It" - an unforgettable few days so early like the potential for this weekend.