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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


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10 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

I thought this was the case

Just seemed odd to me how quickly the siberian high seemingly vanishes.            gfsnh-12-192.png?12gfsnh-12-252.png?12.   .     gfsnh-12-312.png?12

Ah I see what you are getting at. From where I'm sitting the pattern (Atlantic ridge and trough) revolve clockwise from T192 which leaves the ridge orientated SW/NE to the north west  of Scotland by T252 whilst at the same time the east European HP moves east and decays.

Edited by knocker
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??????? Eh?   The next 7 to poss more days are signalled as below average!! The next 2 nights look firmly set to be coldest of this autumn!! I suspect there's people so obsessed with snow forecasts th

EC Monthly consistent with Glosea and it's last runs. Strong resurgence of +ve MSLP/GPH anomalies north of UK further into Dec, especially Xmas week, with marked -ve temp anomalies developing across a

That's a good tee up for this.. From a subseasonal and seasonal perspective, the gift that has kept on giving is the pattern over the Maritime Continent. I've used this a lot (to success) over th

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Hey guys! Time for me to end my sabbatical I think...Strat signs firming up on a truly sickly looking vortex, starting the winter from a very favourable point teleconnections-wise, and there's been a sustained push towards seeing this in the troposphere.  After a few years of meh, things could get very interesting over the next few weeks :drunk-emoji:

 

PS - 2010 repeat would be wonderful, but just look at my ava if anyone needed a reminder of just how obscenely perfect those synoptics were! 

Edited by weatherguy
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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ah I see what you are getting at. From where I'm sitting the pattern (Atlantic ridge and trough) revolve clockwise from T192 which leaves the ridge orientated SW/NE to the north west  of Scotland by T252 whilst at the same time the east European HP moves east and decays.

Ah right I see now, thankyou!  

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22 minutes ago, Grimers said:

Trying to keep up with this thread is incredibly tough, but I'm loving some of the output, especially from the GFS model! If the GFS model is correct, then this Winter could be a repeat of 2010-11!

With LPs threatening to head south i'm more inclined to see another 'December 1981' shaping up. Maybe it's my age showing.

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13 minutes ago, Zakos said:

I thought this was the case

Just seemed odd to me how quickly the siberian high seemingly vanishes.      

Is this not just a response to the strat vortex repositioning deeper into eastern Siberia. There is almost, if not quite, a reversal forecast. Another chance for the GIF as it shows the circulation going anti clockwise round where the core of the vortex is forecast to be

tempresult_wmo2.gif      eWEQBPb.gif

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4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

However' the yawn is on at western seaboard. ..and waa is applying there...and also begins exactin at Greenland. ..we shall see??!!

ECH1-120.gif

Better angle of WAA at day 5 than was showing on the 0z...by a fair margin.

Although by day 6, maybe not...

ECH1-144.GIF?15-0

Nick I think we could have a potential unfolding drama on our hands!

When compared to the GFS at the same timeframe, the differences are stark

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

Edited by CreweCold
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3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Is this not just a response to the strat vortex repositioning deeper into eastern Siberia. There is almost, if not quite, a reversal forecast. Another chance for the GIF as it shows the circulation going anti clockwise round where the core of the vortex is forecast to be

tempresult_wmo2.gif      eWEQBPb.gif

Isn't this all the response from the previous Strat. disruption about 12 days ago?

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Just now, nick sussex said:

The stand off continues between the ECM versus the GFS/UKMO. No inland runner low in the ne USA, flatter so its whether the ECM at T168hrs can clutch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Why can we never just have some form of consensus one way or the other over these things...there's always something to overcome Nick!

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The last cold spell the ECM consistently modelled a continuation of the cold whilst GFS/UKMO said no. ECM was wrong. 

Could be that it's just late to the party again. Solid GEFS mean

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The stand off continues between the ECM versus the GFS/UKMO. No inland runner low in the ne USA, flatter so its whether the ECM at T168hrs can clutch victory from the jaws of defeat.

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why can we never just have some form of consensus one way or the other over these things...there's always something to overcome Nick!

True, theres always some drama as soon as the models sniff something that might look interesting. I'll see what the US state forecasts think later because theres a chasm between what the GFS/UKMO think and the ECM/GEM.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

True, theres always some drama as soon as the models sniff something that might look interesting. I'll see what the US state forecasts think later because theres a chasm between what the GFS/UKMO think and the ECM/GEM.

Well if the GFS is wrong it's going to flip pretty much an entire ensemble suite in the GEFS....I'd like to say I haven't seen that happen before- but I have!

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Hmmm GEM, ECM V UKMO, GFS that is an unusual split.

 

How about JMA?

Keeps the low well to the South, possible snow on leading edge from that.

JN120-21.GIF?15-12JN120-7.GIF?15-12

 

And goes somewhere in the middle ground with the ridge, could be better.

JN168-21.GIF?15-12

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

I see your point and I wouldn't be in the slightest bit concerned if the ECM suite was similar to the GEFS suite and gather it supports it to some extent but have heard conflicting views, 1 or 2 rogue ECM op's V consistent Ensembles and I would back the latter but its difficult when you cant see all the data.

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The GEFS 12z mean turns into an absolute peach with height rises to the NW, high pressure in mid atlantic acting as a block and a negative tilted scandi trough with a cold Nly / NEly airflow for the uk, the mean has been supporting this evolution since yesterday and sounds similar to what GloSea5 must be indicating judging by the MO updates.:good:Blocked and cold by late Nov / early Dec..not a mild swly zephyr in sight!:D

21_312_500mb.png

21_336_500mb.png

21_360_500mb.png

21_384_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Why the panic nick? I don't see whichever solution becomes the mid term favourite affecting what happens in two weeks. the 00z runs had a decent undercutting atlantic by day 10 (op and para)

Because the ECM output continues to look worse and worse. Not easy to see how we get cold from there at day 8 (in an easy fashion)..which leaves 5/6 days until that 2 week timeframe... We're a gnats whisker of a shallow trough away from a pretty big +NAO at day 8.

This even more true with the GEM which was, quite frankly, hideous and quite possible if we don't get that initial amplification and drive of WAA northwards. I think you may be underestimating the importance of that in the overall progression. 

Edited by CreweCold
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