Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

A question to the more knowledgeable . GLosea and other seasonal output has indicated and still does to my knowledge point to a blocked start to December . But with 27 members going cyclonic albeit from a Nw quandrant does that suggest a slight shift change ?

No because the ECMWF ext ens are only rust coming within range of the last couple of days of November and from what I can gather in this forum, they have upgraded the potential for cold since the 0z run although cant be sure of that because I haven't seen them, another point of note as well is the GEFS go out 1 day further and it was only 24-36 hours ago that a really defined Atlantic ridge started showing on the mean (ie - a majority of members favouring this outcome) and it was only really defined at D16. My point is that we need to see the next few days modelling at least before we can start to draw definitive conclusions.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks to both above . Seems obvious now . :fool:. And thanks Fergieweather below . What an asset to this thread .

Edited by Mark wheeler

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Re this ECM bothersome LP.  Well a very active period of cyclinic activity which I described as displaced PV in my monthly outlook for the 3rd week.  Timing looking good and I think a potential very stormy hot could come and with secondary feature the south getting strongest of the winds.  Whether as bothersome as ECM....that is some severe storm though so one must hold back and await more runs and getting closer to the time

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Watch this saga run and run.... ;-)

I'd rather not unless it ends up a channel runner. :wink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These updates from Fergie are giving me the distinct impression that next week has a wider range of potential from the off than you'd be likely to imagine from looking solely at recent GFS det. runs or even recent GEFS suites.

The 12z GEFS features just one perturbation (P1) akin to the ECM 12z, although P5 gets close. The rest are either very close to the GFS det. or variations on that theme.

It all comes down to the assumption that the incoming low will manage to achieve independence from the old trough and spend the second half of its lifespan gradually filling in while to the SW of the UK. If it so happens that this proves erroneous then it will be a good example of how systematic error can render a whole ensemble suite poorly representative of the way forward. Not saying it will, of course.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Intresting GFS brings snow showers as far south as the M4 corridor

Friday evening

C.S

Edited by cheshire snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.

Thanks for sharing that eyebrow-raising information... and one which ties in pretty well with recent GFS runs for the evolution in the lower stratosphere in late Nov, when allowing for a lagged response plus a slight offset of the low heights.

Now if it could just be that simple for once...! :crazy:

I fear for the health of anyone who dares to take these signals more than a little seriously at this range (as good as we know EC can be, long-range forecasting remains experimental as ever), but it's enough to at least justify a positive angle on things :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Now this is an update - a while away yet but this could be quite some December we have coming if this came to fruition !!

Hahahahha Fergie playing the game surely is a good omen.  I think that weather systems pushing up against a strong block over the north of the British Isles would and hopefully will provide some snow at least although hopefully nothing major as I don't know how this country would cope to be honest.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.

I know this is a model thread and members are within their rights to post in detail however for those of us who like reading the excellent posts and are trying to learn all the time can someone unpick the post from Fergie and possibly give us a simpler version. Does it mean an easterly due to northern blocking???

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Meanwhile...

GFS 18z builds a very strong Atlantic ridge so at least it is remaining consistent for now.

Really interested to see if ECM goes back to a more amplified upstream pattern tomorrow.

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Intresting GFS brings snow showers as far south as the M4 corridor

Friday evening

C.S

96-779UK.GIF?14-18 

 

Yeah this weekend could produce a few surprises with a snow flurry here and there during the night when the temps are colder. 

 

EDIT: Pub run is really going for it

gfsnh-0-204.png?18

Edited by SN0WM4N

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm willing to find out, at all costs :spiteful:

Me too fellow Gooner :cold:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.

now THAT is an update of x-rated proportions! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WAA making its way further North into Greenland, this could help with a quicker formation of a Block and subsequent Northerly flow - Pub run special maybe? Best week of model watching for 3 years maybe on the cards. 

IMG_3533.PNG

Look how much warmer the air into Greenland is on this run - crazy for this time of year. 28c warmer than the 12z.

IMG_3534.PNG

IMG_3535.PNG

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ali1977 said:

WAA making its way further North into Greenland, this could help with a quicker formation of a Block and subsequent Northerly flow - Pub run special maybe? Best week of model watching for 3 years maybe on the cards. 

IMG_3533.PNG

I'm feeling a pub run special, aslong as the downstream goes well. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...