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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

According to the UKMO model, there's a possibility of a weak arctic blast on Friday.

UW96-21.GIF?14-06

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Now look at the ENS means for 500hPa and MSLP.... & bear in mind the potential for 3-month anomalies re temperature etc to be skewed (because of ongoing uncertainty re outcome 2nd half of winter).

(PS also bear in mind the consistent signal has been for blocked/colder propensity into *early* winter... indeed as Adam Scaife recently blogged, to put perspective on the signals, this does NOT necessarily reflect winter as a whole; moreover the signals have not strongly leaned towards 'very cold' category in GloSea ENS, merely a bit colder than average, with higher potential for E/NE'ly outbreaks. The latest output remains consistent and shows strong parallel to latest EC Seasonal in broadscale pattern).

The DJF sea level pressure anomaly should please most even if the 2 metre temps are not showing anything cold.

2cat_20161101_mslp_months24_global_deter

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ens mean maps have updated

Dec to Feb high pressure looks centered over Scandinavia

2cat_20161101_mslp_months24_global_deter

Last months update

2cat_20161001_mslp_months24_global_deter

The 850 hpa temp is above average

2cat_20161101_t850_months24_global_deter

Rainfall looks close to or slightly below average

2cat_20161101_prec_months24_global_deter

 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ens mean maps have updated

Dec to Feb high pressure looks centered over Scandinavia

2cat_20161101_mslp_months24_global_deter

Last months update

2cat_20161001_mslp_months24_global_deter

The 850 hpa temp is above average

2cat_20161101_t850_months24_global_deter

Rainfall looks close to or slightly below average

2cat_20161101_prec_months24_global_deter

 

You couldn't really ask for anything better for cold lovers!

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

Fascinating update from Ian as always (for which many thanks). I'm beginning to wonder if this may be a winter for fans of cold rather than for fans of snow.

Blocked anticyclonic conditions in midwinter can easily deliver ice days under inversion - lingering mist/fog can easily keep even London close to or below freezing - and it doesn't matter if there isn't a huge cold pool source to tap into.

I'm wondering if we may be due something we've not been for a fair while - cold winter anticyclonic conditions, no snow, but plenty of cold.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all :)

Fascinating update from Ian as always (for which many thanks). I'm beginning to wonder if this may be a winter for fans of cold rather than for fans of snow.

Blocked anticyclonic conditions in midwinter can easily deliver ice days under inversion - lingering mist/fog can easily keep even London close to or below freezing - and it doesn't matter if there isn't a huge cold pool source to tap into.

I'm wondering if we may be due something we've not been for a fair while - cold winter anticyclonic conditions, no snow, but plenty of cold.

We need to know if Mrs Stodge has an opinion yet?

the old adage that everything evens itself out says we won't have a dry winter but that could be back loaded wet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ens mean maps have updated

Dec to Feb high pressure looks centered over Scandinavia

2cat_20161101_mslp_months24_global_deter

Last months update

2cat_20161001_mslp_months24_global_deter

The 850 hpa temp is above average

2cat_20161101_t850_months24_global_deter

Rainfall looks close to or slightly below average

2cat_20161101_prec_months24_global_deter

 

2 things less blocking over the pole but also lost the heights to the south so that would suggest a southerly jet tracking which is good news! 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
11 minutes ago, stodge said:

Afternoon all :)

Fascinating update from Ian as always (for which many thanks). I'm beginning to wonder if this may be a winter for fans of cold rather than for fans of snow.

Blocked anticyclonic conditions in midwinter can easily deliver ice days under inversion - lingering mist/fog can easily keep even London close to or below freezing - and it doesn't matter if there isn't a huge cold pool source to tap into.

I'm wondering if we may be due something we've not been for a fair while - cold winter anticyclonic conditions, no snow, but plenty of cold.

I'm pretty sure you get snow at least once with any cold Winter... But, yes it's looking that way seen as the predictions are for a drier than average Winter, but what we mustn't forget is even though drier than average conditions look likely, that doesn't mean there will be less snow, it normally means there will be less rain.

Edited by Grimers
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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
2 minutes ago, Grimers said:

I'm sure you get snow with any cold Winter at least once? But, yes it's looking that way seen as the predictions are for a drier than average Winter, but what we mustn't forget is even though drier than average conditions look likely, that doesn't mean there will be less snow, it normally means there will be less rain.

When "drier than average" is indicated, it will mean all precipitation types.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Personally, that GLOSEA update is not for me...I'm looking at that thinking there would be frequent interludes of S'ly winds as low pressure stalls to the W and SW rather than running underneath the block which, may at times, be further S than Scandi.

If anything, that run departs from the Metoffice narrative so far as it looks as if it actually gets colder further into winter/early spring.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Just now, Nick L said:

When "drier than average" is indicated, it will mean all precipitation types.

Understood!

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

All in all, I'm happy with what I'm seeing at the moment. 

NAO going down down down, lots of blocking, oh and there pretty much isn't a pv ;).

Complete reverse of what was going on this time last year with very poor output predicted into December for cold, which ultimately verified.

If we want the cold, real cold, I firmly believe that would have to fall in December , as pretty Much all long range want a milder second half of winter. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Personally, that GLOSEA update is not for me...I'm looking at that thinking there would be frequent interludes of S'ly winds as low pressure stalls to the W and SW rather than running underneath the block which, may at times, be further S than Scandi.

Possibly  Crew  but all indications  at the moment seems to be going for a front loaded winter   the later half may be quite a lot more milder  maybe influenced more by southerly winds.    im still thinging we are looking at a cold if not very cold December.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
13 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Possibly  Crew  but all indications  at the moment seems to be going for a front loaded winter   the later half may be quite a lot more milder  maybe influenced more by southerly winds.    im still thinging we are looking at a cold if not very cold December.

That GLOSEA run does not suggest a front loaded winter though. The potential for cold actually intensifies in the Jan-Mar time frame with the jet diving down through the UK and a strong block to the E...

2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_global_deter

Looks like battleground UK to me on the above chart...the one that springs to mind is Feb 1996

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

What will be,will be would i take drier than average over last years mild rubbish oh yes indeed,at least with the cold in place you are in with a chance,think back 12 months low after low flooding and mild temperatures a coldies nightmare 

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Agree' with cc on this one.

The glosea paints a mysterious picture here! With aforementioned "back loaded winter"...and goes somewhat against the graphics/grain of current thought synoptic of front loaded. ...

However 'given' nearly unprecedented northern hemispherical state' id put this in the confused box and mix match with other output. Long or shorter range...I thibk many a model toying and struggling given current state....However its more likely than not'.... cold or very cold will be worthy of mention this season than a fair few past.

2cat_20161101_mslp_months35_global_deter_public.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
26 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Personally, that GLOSEA update is not for me...I'm looking at that thinking there would be frequent interludes of S'ly winds as low pressure stalls to the W and SW rather than running underneath the block which, may at times, be further S than Scandi.

If anything, that run departs from the Metoffice narrative so far as it looks as if it actually gets colder further into winter/early spring.

There is no doubt about it when looking at the percentage tercile maps, this is quite a big downgrade from their previous couple of updates. Darren Betts must have got hold of the controls :)

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, blizzard81 said:

There is no doubt about it when looking at the percentage tercile maps, this is quite a big downgrade from their previous couple of updates. Darren Betts must have got hold of the controls :)

I don't bother looking at the percentage terciles...IMO they're about as much use as a chocolate fireguard given vagaries which show over and over again with temperature plotting and deviation from long term means in terms of anomalies presented. The only one I'd look at is the precipitation output. I'm personally much more interested in the MSLP anomalies...I can extrapolate probable surface conditions from that!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
22 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Shame the GFS after holding back the main low eventually pushes that se so we don't see any trough disruption, it looks like it will be the longwinded route to anything more interesting unless the Euros do something different.

Give it time nick i reckon it will disrupt!!gfs just being stubborn maybe!!looked better than the 06z earlier on aswell!!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
2 hours ago, fergieweather said:

At present there's really little change to the dichotomy that has prevailed for a few days now and if anything, the 00z runs have exacerbated the uncertainty more (versus some continuity that seemed to be appearing prior). This weekend remains the 'fork in the road' of the medium range dichotomy: will NW Europe remain under blocked and generally colder conditions moving ahead, or will we move to a somewhat more progressive story of ridge-trough-ridge etc into the 15d period, bringing an oscillation from mild phases to colder and so-on? 

What *does* have higher confidence, in broadscale terms, is the clear tendency towards a very convoluted upper pattern hemispherically, making it prone to amplification and blocking. With -ve AO/NAO the preferred outcome on into December (and GloSea5 repeatedly and unwaveringly going for broad +ve MSLP anomalies across the UK into turn of month and a wholly blocked pattern into early Dec), there will come a tipping-point where we see better continuity in ensembles, but we're certainly not seeing that with any great faith....yet.

Hi fergie!!any news on what the models behind closed doors such as mogreps are showing for the end of this week cold snap ie snow amounts!!also any chance of that low from greenland at 120 hours sliding more rather than bombing over the uk!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

sensible model discussion posts please.....There have been numerous posts made today which are not really relevant to this thread, so please keep it to what the outputs are actually showing rather than personal hunches, talk of yester-year weather, and one-liners that are either off topic or add nothing to the discussion....many thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK

According to the ECMWF model, it's music to the ears for cold lovers.

ECM1-72.GIF?14-12 ECM0-72.GIF?14-12 ECM1-96.GIF?14-12 ECM0-96.GIF?14-12 ECM1-120.GIF?14-12 ECM0-120.GIF?14-12

Edited by Grimers
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