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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Im a bit confused bt that   is the last figure the daytime temps   and the first night time?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Correct.

Edited by Grimers

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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Im a bit confused bt that   is the last figure the daytime temps   and the first night time?

2

1st figure is the lowest temp expected 2nd is the highest expected

Taking Monday week as an example temps would range from 5c in the north to 12c in the south

ukmaxtemp.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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Cold Northerly to end on the GFS 6Z Control run. 

cond north 2.png cold north.png 

I know the two pictures are 12hrs apart, but the much colder air is in the last picture. The 1st picture shows an impressive northerly line. 

Edited by Mark N

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2 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Cold Northerly to end on the GFS 6Z Control run. 

cond north 2.png cold north.png 

That looks similar to 6 years ago...

Edited by Grimers

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17 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

I can't attach an image because it's premium. however, WeatherWeb hinting at the chance of much Colder and wintry conditions back end of next week.

We can see there is a chance re the gfs op fi's with limited gefs support but to say it's more than that at the moment is rather 'maddenesque'

 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We can see there is a chance re the gfs op fi's with limited gefs support but to say it's more than that at the moment is rather 'maddenesque'

 

Oh, I totally agree. It is just a chance but fantastic output before the final calendar month.

850temp_384_ps_slp.png

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The sooner that Russian high gets lost the better. All it does is park the troughing too far west and stops some colder air being pulled south to the east. We need it to leave the scene quickly and allow the amplification upstream to develop high pressure to the nw which then means some colder air can filter south east over Scandi.

Earlier the models disagree as to how quickly low pressure will drop se and the depth of that but seem to be on the same page after that with the general pattern.

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9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

At present there's really little change to the dichotomy that has prevailed for a few days now and if anything, the 00z runs have exacerbated the uncertainty more (versus some continuity that seemed to be appearing prior). This weekend remains the 'fork in the road' of the medium range dichotomy: will NW Europe remain under blocked and generally colder conditions moving ahead, or will we move to a somewhat more progressive story of ridge-trough-ridge etc into the 15d period, bringing an oscillation from mild phases to colder and so-on? 

What *does* have higher confidence, in broadscale terms, is the clear tendency towards a very convoluted upper pattern hemispherically, making it prone to amplification and blocking. With -ve AO/NAO the preferred outcome on into December (and GloSea5 repeatedly and unwaveringly going for broad +ve MSLP anomalies across the UK into turn of month and a wholly blocked pattern into early Dec), there will come a tipping-point where we see better continuity in ensembles, but we're certainly not seeing that with any great faith....yet.

Thank you once more, for your fantastic output.

In your opinion , are there similarities to 2010? 

Did the same sort of confusion pop up?

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan

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3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

At present there's really little change to the dichotomy that has prevailed for a few days now and if anything, the 00z runs have exacerbated the uncertainty more (versus some continuity that seemed to be appearing prior). This weekend remains the 'fork in the road' of the medium range dichotomy: will NW Europe remain under blocked and generally colder conditions moving ahead, or will we move to a somewhat more progressive story of ridge-trough-ridge etc into the 15d period, bringing an oscillation from mild phases to colder and so-on? 

What *does* have higher confidence, in broadscale terms, is the clear tendency towards a very convoluted upper pattern hemispherically, making it prone to amplification and blocking. With -ve AO/NAO the preferred outcome on into December (and GloSea5 repeatedly and unwaveringly going for broad +ve MSLP anomalies across the UK into turn of month and a wholly blocked pattern into early Dec), there will come a tipping-point where we see better continuity in ensembles, but we're certainly not seeing that with any great faith....yet.

Another great update as usual Ian so thank you for this insight.  So - if this falls right (for coldies) in the medium term there is potential of a decent prolonged spell of chilly/colder blocked weather, this comes in many forms of course.  If we does stay with the progressive theme, then the potential of colder and progressively more wintry spells still on the cards, these Northerly incursions will start having more of a bite come December as the NH temps significantly drop.

This makes for good models watching if nothing else, substantially better than the last few years for sure.

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Thanks Ian , blocked clearly on the menu for early December , my only concern in all HP cases is where does it drop anchor.

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According to the ECMWF model, there's a possibility of a severe storm bringing severe gale force SW winds to SW parts of the UK, which would be perfect for my Davis Vantage Pro2! :D

ECM1-144.GIF?14-12 ECM0-144.GIF?14-12

Edited by Grimers

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20 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Shame the GFS after holding back the main low eventually pushes that se so we don't see any trough disruption, it looks like it will be the longwinded route to anything more interesting unless the Euros do something different.

Give it time nick i reckon it will disrupt!!gfs just being stubborn maybe!!looked better than the 06z earlier on aswell!!

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6 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

METO probability maps updated. 

 

 

3up_20161101_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public (1).png

Very "Bland" output there. no real signal either way.  roughly 40-60% Mild, 20-40% Average,  20-40% cold.

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7 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

METO probability maps updated. 

 

 

3up_20161101_temp2m_months24_europe_prob_public (1).png

3up_20161101_z500_months24_europe_prob_public.png

If im reading that correctly  doesnt that point to  the possibility of a warmer than average winter?   if so thats quite a bit different to what they were saying earlier in the month  as ever time will tell.

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7 minutes ago, Grimers said:

:help:

ECU1-144.GIF?14-12

it's quite interesting actually as a couple of days or so ago, the GFS picked up on a signal for a quite southerly tracking low to wizz through with potential for gales, heavy rain and dare I say it 'the white stuff' for the same time period.....one to watch

gfs1.pnggfs2.pnggfs3.png

Edited by ajpoolshark

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Very "Bland" output there. no real signal either way.  roughly 40-60% Mild, 20-40% Average,  20-40% cold.

Basically, if the output is right, we're looking either at a slightly milder than average, average or slightly cooler than average Winter.

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9 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

it's quite interesting actually as a couple of days or so ago, the GFS picked up on a signal for a quite southerly tracking low to wizz through with potential for gales, heavy rain and dare I say it 'the white stuff' for the same time period.....one to watch

gfs1.pnggfs2.pnggfs3.png

Yes, if that low took a more southerly track it could bring a widespread snow event to high and possibly low ground.

Edited by Grimers

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1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Now look at the ENS means for 500hPa and MSLP.... & bear in mind the potential for 3-month anomalies re temperature etc to be skewed (because of ongoing uncertainty re outcome 2nd half of winter).

Excellent point and no surprise you made it Ian ................cheers

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