Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Frosty.]

Perturbation 2 GEFS 12z caught my eye earlier..ouch I mean Brrrrrrr.. Boom

End of November will hopefully look like this..or this!

[Mucka]

And the winner is...

Number 12!

 

Extended JMA pretty nice.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Rasping northerly towards the turn of the month on the 18z

That would be some curtain raiser to winter 2016/17

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Mucka said:

And the winner is...

Number 12!

Yeah not bad

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[lorenzo]

[booferking]

Half way through GEFS and 7 already have the greeny high like the op have we got a trend

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

One word; WOW

[ITSY]

Of those that make it to Greenland, most do so via the Atlantic ridge collapsing into the UK then retrogressive NWard, heralding a cold northerly shot. Finally an identifiable synoptic route to blocking has emerged. Let's see how it develops or if it changes.

[Snowman.]

Certainly plenty of options in the GEFS however luckily it's early days as some of them seem to be tilting towards a west based -NAO.

Obviously far out so nothing to worry about as there is plenty of time for changes but caution is advised.

 

 

Edited November 13, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Mucka]

No cold showing on ECM ensembles, looks like we will need to be patient barring some nice upgrades.

[Mark Neal.]

8 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Of those that make it to Greenland, most do so via the Atlantic ridge collapsing into the UK then retrogressive NWard, heralding a cold northerly shot. Finally an identifiable synoptic route to blocking has emerged. Let's see how it develops or if it changes.

Yes quite agree. Does seem that while the mid term looks unfavourable for developing much colder conditions to our doors, that even if a high which looks unfavourable (located over Uk or just by) that then looks to retrograde towards NW/N or even NE occasinaly in weather model output. The impression i am getting is that this scenario which is starting to show from time to time gets colder air to our shores eventually but its a dragged out process. But the main thing, is that it looks like all roads point to a colder and more blocked end to November and proper winter could begin in earnest just after. Its like a jigsaw takes ages to make but only a few puzzle pieces left at the end.. last few days of November could well be very interesting! 

What fascinating weather model output viewing as Winter hasn't even begun yet! 

[Geordiesnow]

53 minutes ago, Mucka said:

No cold showing on ECM ensembles, looks like we will need to be patient barring some nice upgrades.

Is that really a surprise though? I'm still no-where near convinced regarding proper cold prospects, i see half attempts at amplfication which results in a chilly zonal weather at times and there has been at times hints in the outlook it could turn milder again eventually and not just on today's runs either. Of course, at this stage that has to be taken with a huge pinch of salt as the details will change.

I totally agree with Karyo regarding the Russian high that is being projected, now a Russian high which drops a huge amount  of deep cold air on its eastern flank like it does in the early part of the run has huge potential but when you see the Russian high which pumps up alot of milder air into Scandi and Western Russia with the angle its at, its just a huge waste of time, it will never in a million years affect our weather and its just sends any PV way towards Siberia and areas such as Japan/China, just exactly how it was in Jan 2016.

Regarding the PV over Greenland, at this present time, its strong and it is forecast to weaken but I have yet too see much concrete evidence the PV will get totally destroyed by any Ridging and for me unless that happens then I don't expect too see much in the way of proper cold set ups heading our way anytime soon.

All that being said, it will turn chilly by the end of  week with the risk of hill snow and frosts could become the main story as we head into the weekend as the low starts to fill although the ECM shows the next low could well hit us by Sunday which would result in a wet and very windy day.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Atlantic blocked by day 9 on the 0z GFS

Hard to see the Atlantic powering up after this point on this particular run. Let's see where the blocking takes up residence towards the end of the run and whether we get to tap in to any cold uppers...

We do indeed...bingo

The GFS 0z then locks us into the cold up until the end of the run, with a slight readjustment and an even colder flow poised to head down from the N

All in all, stunning output there in FI.

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

Happy with GFS, we are going to have to endure a little bit of pain(and rain) i suspect as the Atlantic comes up against the huge block but short term pain will hopefully lead to long term gain.

Steady as she goes, i expect big Steve Murr will (hopefully) be along soon in the run up to the end of November cold...

 

 

Edited November 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

Two important facets to the GFS output at present

one is the demise of the Russian ridge through week 2 and more importantly (and perhaps teleconnctively) the development  of the griceland cut off high around day 10.  ECM op and para were playing with that on their day 10 yesterday - watching the next frame to see if it repeats the trick on the 00z

EDIT: too Far East and we will likely see a broad block developing to our north but the Russian ridge will hang on. Will need retrogression and a second bite at the cherry as opposed to current GFS ops which are progressive in this regard. 

Edited November 14, 2016 by bluearmy

[snowbunting]

Wow you dont often see the 18z and 0z gfs runs marry up! 

[bluearmy]

Day 10 isn't bad at all. Important to note the trend in cutting off the Atlantic high (see the undercutting in the west Atlantic of the system off the e seaboard). That will keep the ringing high enough to allow the jet to run into w Europe to our south and support the the Atlantic ridge. Just need to split some energy n in America and that should drive some WAA to amplify further. if you want to see proper winter arrive before the end of the month, you need to find a way of advecting some cold uppers into nw Europe.  I can wait for the second or third bite if necessary. 

[doctor32]

Well i'm happy with the way things are looking on the models lately, good signs for blocking (even if not in right place for proper cold this time around) it is only mid november and upper 850's just aren't that cold yet. lots of possibilities as many have mentioned for cold options.

Yes a very mild couple days to start the week, but colder weather flooding south with plenty wintry showers to north and some frontal snow for some as bands of rain bump into cold air as we head into following weekend/next week.

 

[Duane S.]

I am not concerning myself with details in late FI, these will flip flop all over the shop in the coming week or so. The most important thing  that we need to occur first, and most models are now consistently going for it, is what is being projected mid next week. The cornerstone, the foundation of any half decent cold spell, namely low pressure digging southwards and ending up below us. Get that in place and with the background signals as they are, the dice are loaded.

[Polar Maritime]

Just sensible discussion please in here, A few off topic post have been hidden. Thanks.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning shows colder -5 uppers for Wed/Thur pushing in from the N/W giving better snow chances for parts of the UK. Into the run as we head into Winter the models continue to show some very cold blocked solutions..

  

The Net/W MR Model showing -6 850's pushing in by weeks end.

Edited November 14, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Gowon]

Anyone wondering which way the ECM might go after 240hrs, check out GFS control  - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=1

[winterof79]

Snow for some on a cold N/W flow

[Decemberof2010]

Morning all, first post so go easy

I've been reading this forum for a couple of years now, and find it fascinating. Some of the knowledge on here is astounding. 

Anyhow I decided to join you guys as the excitement builds over this coming winter

What I am seeing is some great building blocks that are now starting to manifest themselves in the models

I've got a feeling we may be seeing some BOOM charts very soon

I am aware how us cold fans have been let down big time over and over again by great looking charts never getting to T0

This year feels different

I have limited knowledge but I certainly look forward to seeing posts in this model thread from Ali1977, Frosty, Steve Murr, Mucka, BFTP, Febblizzard1991 to name some of my favourite posters (cold rampers, like me)

Anyway keep up the great work guys, everything crossed for our upcoming winter

Cheers

[Banbury]

Nice to see the 0z follow the 18z , lets hope this trend continues .