Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[fergieweather]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

i would say we could get better with a greeny high as it will be further down the line, that's why i would prefer that to my usual mid winter favourite of an easterly, that's why I'm a bit disappointed at todays output, still though until GP and Fergie rules out a Northerly late Nov / Early Dec i wont write it off.

Well, latest EC Monthly still broadly favours the northerly quadrant outcome through early Dec, with troughing E of and across the UK; +ve heights to our NW. So, a general consistency, but we are of course still only at 10 Nov. Early days...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Well, latest EC Monthly still broadly favours the northerly quadrant outcome through early Dec, with troughing E of and across the UK; +ve heights to our NW. So, a general consistency, but we are of course still only at 10 Nov. Early days...

Can I ask Ian, why is it monthly and seasonal models (most of them anyway) tend to either over do the temps or offer no coherent signal when the pressure patterns do, EG - your saying EC monthly still favours troughing to E but that chart above shows No signal for UK when a Northerly with heights to the NW would at any time of year surely indicate below average temperatures for the UK?

[karlos1983]

And sleep. Good news. Cheers for the update Ian 

[Mark Neal.]

  Good 18z GEFS with a raft of colder solutions as we go further out into the FI. Blocking evident once we go through this phase of slightly less colder and wetter conditions as the atlantic shows its head for a bit. Good positive update from Ian Fergie with regard to the ECM Monthly. The polar Vortex is very very weak and if the stars align, a cold spell shouldn't be that far away, hopefully we are the lucky ones who are in Pole Position, i'd certainly say we have a very good chance! 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.

[Mapantz]

There's some quite potent areas of low pressure harbouring in and around the UK on some of the peturbs at days 8 / 9 - I don't know what the likelyhood is, of at least one nasty low in the next 14 days?

[Cheshire Freeze]

25 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Well, latest EC Monthly still broadly favours the northerly quadrant outcome through early Dec, with troughing E of and across the UK; +ve heights to our NW. So, a general consistency, but we are of course still only at 10 Nov. Early days...

Current CFS run

Edited November 11, 2016 by CreweCold

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Current CFS run

Safe to say, the CFS is being rather consistent with its height anomalies being higher towards North of the UK. NW/N/NE and lower heigh anomalies to the South. Just like the long range models are also hinting at. Interesting. 

[northwestsnow]

6 hours ago, Mark N said:

 Good 18z GEFS with a raft of colder solutions as we go further out into the FI. Blocking evident once we go through this phase of slightly less colder and wetter conditions as the atlantic shows its head for a bit. Good positive update from Ian Fergie with regard to the ECM Monthly. The polar Vortex is very very weak and if the stars align, a cold spell shouldn't be that far away, hopefully we are the lucky ones who are in Pole Position, i'd certainly say we have a very good chance! 

 

Anyway- good news from the EC 32 with still the signal for some kind of blocking high in the North Atlantic - promoting winds from a northerly source, fingers crossed that TD out towards the Carribean doesn't spoil the potential ..

Edited November 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To snip off topic.

[Mucka]

Ouch!

That would make up for the lack of storminess this autumn.

Just look at those polar heights though

[ITSY]

Very interesting 06GFS! Can't post as late for work, but thanks for update Fergie - really good news that!

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning continues to advertise a cool N/W Pm flow from next Tue/Wed, Before a deep low rattles in off the N/Atlantic with come pretty unstable air for next weekend.. 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

Of equal interest is the parallel ec46 and current are in broad agreement  (or at least no big disagreement) now for weeks 3 thru 7

no appetite for any high height anomoly over w Europe (transient days 32-39 on para) 

No appetite for low height anomoly to nw/ne Uk 

Looks like a pretty decent southern arm as we head into December which maintains 

tough to be anything like specific on a mean for this timeframe but the broad background is conducive for wintry conditions which is very much different to this type of modelling over the past couple winters

[carinthian]

Morning all. Chart from ECM at day 10, very different from the GFS at the same time with its Atlantic dart board low. The ECM sinks the Scandinavian trough into Central Europe and keeps low heights there and high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles. The GFS has been the form horse at this range but all very uncertain . However, the common denominator remains the powerful cold block resident over Russia on all models and that's not going nowhere and could still be the major player rather than the Atlantic zonal attacks/flow. We wait and sit on the fence, however the early start to winter has produced record snowfall in Sweden, early snow in up land regions of Northern Britain and widespread snow cover over much of Russia and Northern Europe. Here in the Alps , one of the best early snow covers I have seen since being out here (2005).

 C

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z shows we are well on track for a cold plunge later next week, good continuity from the Ecm

Some quite low thicknesses too with 520-522 dam!

There would be some snow!

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[jvenge]

Past GFS runs have been more bullish in terms of bringing colder air to Eastern Europe. Good support from this in GFS ensembles from T72 all the way to T384. Very few mild options showing. Does it mean it is right? Of course not! But a trend is a trend :-)

 

[northwestsnow]

Getting some consistency now at 144 from the big 3, signal for a deep low to swing in towards the UK with a pressure rise in the Atlantic, ECM introduces some pretty cold uppers into the UK longer term and i wonder what the evolution would be post day 10-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

The Siberian high is indeed a monster at 1050mb but will the Atlantic play ball and allow for some retrogression?

[Ali1977]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Getting some consistency now at 144 from the big 3, signal for a deep low to swing in towards the UK with a pressure rise in the Atlantic, ECM introduces some pretty cold uppers into the UK longer term and i wonder what the evolution would be post day 10-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

The Siberian high is indeed a monster at 1050mb but will the Atlantic play ball and allow for some retrogression?

It would be great if we did get the Siberian high to retrogress but there seems more support in the pro's models for blocking to the NW - This isn't quite showing it's hand yet; and they do say December , although the potential is there when the troughs sink down over the UK in the medium term. 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Ali1977

[Summer Sun]

ECM

14th to 20th

Temperatures above average for most with precipitation above average in the NW of Scotland and slightly below average in the far south and SW a weak signal elsewhere

21st to 27th

Temperatures slightly above average for the north weaker signal in the south - precipitation no strong signal

28th to 4th

No strong signals for both

Edited November 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z shows we are well on track for a cold plunge later next week, good continuity from the Ecm

Some quite low thicknesses too with 520-522 dam!

There would be some snow!

 

Yes Frosty - although the 00Z seems to have tempered somewhat the snow ppn amounts from yesterdays runs (unreliable charts I know) but we will see what happens on the 17th November as I have that date marked.

More interesting runs to look forward to.

[fergieweather]

31 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM

28th to 4th

No strong signals for both

Beyond that (to 12 Dec), the run develops +ve PPN anomalies consistent with a cyclonic broad northerly flow (N/NE Scotland/England; N Wales). Weak signals as would be expected at this lead time. 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Chart from ECM at day 10, very different from the GFS at the same time with its Atlantic dart board low. The ECM sinks the Scandinavian trough into Central Europe and keeps low heights there and high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles. The GFS has been the form horse at this range but all very uncertain . However, the common denominator remains the powerful cold block resident over Russia on all models and that's not going nowhere and could still be the major player rather than the Atlantic zonal attacks/flow. We wait and sit on the fence, however the early start to winter has produced record snowfall in Sweden, early snow in up land regions of Northern Britain and widespread snow cover over much of Russia and Northern Europe. Here in the Alps , one of the best early snow covers I have seen since being out here (2005).

 C

This mornings UKMO model seems to be heading along the ECM with a significant Polar Front pushing through all parts of the British Isles in the 7-10 day forecast period.  Can you prolong the cold after next week ? You will if GP thoughts of height rises poleward from the Mid Atlantic can be maintained, then the Russian block would still be in place and the all important deep trough formation over Western Europe. However, GFS latest runs seem to put this development on hold for a while longer. I think there will be lots of chopping and changing in the model runs at the 10 day period, so sit back and enjoy the roller coaster. I for one am enjoying these early winter type charts that so far have produced a bit of cold for most.

 C

[fergieweather]

Worth adding that we've seen strong agreement emerge now in past 24hrs for the cold outbreak later next week. We see a tipping point then in latest EC ENS: A direct split between those that go on to stall the pattern, thereby maintaining the cold cyclonic feed; versus those that revert to something a bit more mobile. By final days of Nov, the upturn in colder (N/NW or broad E'ly) solutions is quite striking v earlier runs, which may offer credence to the colder cyclonic offering for early Dec in latest EC Monthly. But we must remind ourselves that's still about a month away...

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Worth adding that we've seen strong agreement emerge now in past 24hrs for the cold outbreak later next week. We see a tipping point then in latest EC ENS: A direct split between those that go on to stall the pattern, thereby maintaining the cold cyclonic feed; versus those that revert to something a bit more mobile. By final days of Nov, the upturn in colder (N/NW or broad E'ly) solutions is quite striking v earlier runs, which may offer credence to the colder cyclonic offering for early Dec in latest EC Monthly. But we must remind ourselves that's still about a month away...

By the same token, this time last year there was no sign of any of the above looking further ahead which proved to be spot on so let's hope for firstly, a cold outbreak later next week as advertised by the Ecm 00z and then a cold Nly unstable flow by late Nov / early dec.

[legritter]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Worth adding that we've seen strong agreement emerge now in past 24hrs for the cold outbreak later next week. We see a tipping point then in latest EC ENS: A direct split between those that go on to stall the pattern, thereby maintaining the cold cyclonic feed; versus those that revert to something a bit more mobile. By final days of Nov, the upturn in colder (N/NW or broad E'ly) solutions is quite striking v earlier runs, which may offer credence to the colder cyclonic offering for early Dec in latest EC Monthly. But we must remind ourselves that's still about a month away...

From a former fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society  thank you Fergieweather for your contribution to our forum,This forum certainly beats having forecast charts [fax charts ]posted to me each day as i did back in the 80s .

Only thing very similar is that time past 120hrs ,big improvements these days of course ,and its great that we have that uncertainty still ,makes it more interesting and not so clinical  keeps the hunt more alive ,as for current charts it looks like some very interesting weather Could be heading towards our shores later next week ,but with many options on the table after that ,great forum gang cheers to all who post ,

[Scandinavian High.]

Hi all haven't had chance to look at the models Ian said chance of a colder outbreak later next week where are we looking north or east thank you. 

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