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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Isn't that suggesting a reversal as we reach the end of November?

If so then there could be some very interesting output over the coming days :)

It is, although it has been a little up and down the last few days, but nice to see all the same :)

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1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

...and - as over successive runs across many days - GloSea remains keen on a blocked story emerging into December. It'll be interesting to see how ECMWF Monthly handles things later this evening.

Hi Ian

thanks for that and nice update.  Blocking to our W and NW?

 

BFTP

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Hi Ian

  Blocking to our W and NW?

 

BFTP

Please say yes:cold-emoji:

The models show a good chance of the jet tilting NW / SE from later next week, always good for coldies if lows are diving SE and the Ecm shows the PFJ digging south meaning the uk is on the cold side of the jet with Atlantic lows on a more southerly track so they bump into colder air which would produce a wintry mix with snow for some!..all good.

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Lets hope GLOSEA has this nailed and ECM Monthlies follows suit tonight, I expect we may start getting some great charts in FI if so, and start getting some heights building in the North again - With Zonal indicated to fall again I expect things could easily become very interesting in Dec, totally different from the norm and would take a serious recovery to get back close to normal.

Any idea on how the ECM Ens were this morning?

Edited by Ali1977

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lets hope GLOSEA has this nailed and ECM Monthlies follows suit tonight, I expect we may start getting some great charts in FI if so, and start getting some heights building in the North again - With Zonal indicated to fall again I expect things could easily become very interesting in Dec, totally different from the norm and would take a serious recovery to get back close to normal.

Any idea on how the ECM Ens were this morning?

3

Mild till Tuesday them temperatures slowly falling

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.pngECMAVGEU00_168_2.pngECMAVGEU00_216_2.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

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A better GFS 06Z with the azores high stretching further NW into Labrador.  Not sure how it will play out but by next Thurs it looks chilly and most certainly hill snow on the cards, in the North with a keen NW flow and -4/5c 850s.

Nice run, by next Fri we could see hill snow as far south as the Midlands as the cold NW flow digs South, in the North Wintery showers will fall to increasingly low levels.  

Unfortunately the high in NW canada looks like getting shunted away by a low swinging up the Eastern flanks of America, this scuppas progression of any blocking to the NW - stiill, it's only 1 run and quite different from the last.

Edited by Ali1977

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So an interesting update this morning from Ian F. Where will the blocking take hold my feeling is to the north east time will tell.:D

IMG_0100.JPG

Edited by abbie123

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Certainly a  very interesting time a looming ,so going by current long range charts we i think are looking at possibly something for coldies arriving after next fri/sat , so we should start to see some good charts appearing later this week end .

Of course time will tell and many twists and turns let downs etc to come ,but as others have pointed out its only November so patience is required .But looking at northern hemisphere charts i,m hoping that with just a bit of luck [and of course mother natures help ] we can see some good cold air flood south across our neck of the woods , so keep the prozack locked away and treat your pram with respect we dont want Mother getting upset so early in our Season of ups and downs .

Right now going to see what GFS as cooked up on current run ,cheers gang :friends::yahoo:.

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Can't post pictures - but what an FI !!! Sure others will post some imagery!! Could just do with a link between Atlantic WAA and the Polar high.  Just for fun at this stage, but I expect some interesting ensembles on the way.

Edited by Ali1977

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GFS6Z offers plenty of Pm incursions with the increasing likelihood of frost and snow showers further North as we head towards the last third of Nov, much as yesterdays METO mrf depicted ...:cold:

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The GFS continues with a variation on the blocked Atlantic theme this morning, a far cry from the zonal Westerlies it was showing this time yesterday. We know the background signals are primed for blocking to return late/Nov into early December so the GFS, being one of the few models that go out that far is probably starting to pick up on these signals.

Likely to change back and forth for a few days, but we should hopefully start to see the other models picking up the same signal in the next 5-7 days or so.

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On 11/5/2016 at 20:42, northwestsnow said:
32 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I fail to see why anyone should be disappointed with prospects when you see this sort of chart being churned out on a fairly regular basis in November.

 

Meanwhile, somewhere in Scotland this morning...

Lecht 10_Nov_16.jpg

 

I don't believe it's from today, that screenshot is from years ago, who hasn't ditched winxp years ago :p

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53 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This looks good from the Gfs 6z with reloading cold shots from the nw / n:D

Further upstream looks promising too:santa-emoji:

h850t850eu (1).png

h850t850eu (2).png

h850t850eu (3).png

h850t850eu.png

 

Thankyou GFS 6z, the 17th onwards is where's it at once again.

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Just now, gottolovethisweather said:

Thankyou GFS 6z, the 17th onwards is where's it at once again.

Indeed, not deep FI..just outside the reliable timeframe:D

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3 hours ago, Ravelin said:

I fail to see why anyone should be disappointed with prospects when you see this sort of chart being churned out on a fairly regular basis in November.

gfsnh-0-324.png?6

OK, it's FI, but it's not screaming ranging PV.

Meanwhile, somewhere in Scotland this morning...

Lecht 10_Nov_16.jpg

 

 
 

I had to chek the date twice on that chart, lol. I thought it was 2010.

When the UKMO Met Office blog updates went from this on the 19th November.

 

Rain, rain and more moisture-laden Southwesterlies than you could shake a stick at!

 

To this, just over a week later.

 

Why is it so flippin' cold, it's the weather, extremely cold weather at that!

 

As we all know, as they say, the rest is history. 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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What's not to like!:D

From what the models, the MetO and one's albeit fragmentary memory of past years all seem to be saying, substantial and long-lasting blocking to the W and NW of the UK can only lead to one thing: an extensive pool of cold/very could over Europe and Scandinavia?

Of course nothing can be guaranteed but every little helps!:yahoo:

Edited by Ed Stone

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40 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

I fail to see why anyone should be disappointed with prospects when you see this sort of chart being churned out on a fairly regular basis in November.

gfsnh-0-324.png?6

OK, it's FI, but it's not screaming ranging PV.

Meanwhile, somewhere in Scotland this morning...

Lecht 10_Nov_16.jpg

 

Ok will probably not happen but sort of goes to prove that us and the east coast usa can be v cold.

 

 

 

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GFS 06Z delivers!

OK T+162 a week today but it's on the march down from T+135

One to watch - chance of a reload but maybe a bit far too deep in FI.

Good to see such a trend so early in November.

 

 

h500slp.png

uksnowrisk.png

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2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Lets hope GLOSEA has this nailed and ECM Monthlies follows suit tonight, I expect we may start getting some great charts in FI if so, and start getting some heights building in the North again - With Zonal indicated to fall again I expect things could easily become very interesting in Dec, totally different from the norm and would take a serious recovery to get back close to normal.

Any idea on how the ECM Ens were this morning?

I storngly feel / believe that blocking will appear after this disruption by a displaced PV next week as we get to the last week of Nov and carrying through going into early Dec .  I have it to our NW too.  Be interesting to see where GLOSEA5 has it 

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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