Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[festivalking]

Unable to post charts. Sure someone can in a second but at +288 on the 0z that's some storm for the southern part of UK.. it would be some event but it's 288 so probably won't happen but if it did...  

[AWD]

8 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Unable to post charts. Sure someone can in a second but at +288 on the 0z that's some storm for the southern part of UK.. it would be some event but it's 288 so probably won't happen but if it did...  

This the one:

[That ECM]

ECM at T144 has a very little heights to the NE. Apparently fed up of being told it always over amplifies!! Not much point looking past this time imo until this is resolved.

[winterof79]

Cool/Cold outlook for mid-November with snow in the mix for some

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Displaced PV episode ahead.   Entirely plausible run for me and seems to be a generally run theme.

 

BFTP 

Edited November 10, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I hate iphones, double post so have edited.  Can't seem to remove it

 

BFTP 

Edited November 10, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[northwestsnow]

Better 0z runs across the board this morning.

Obviously a lot of volaitilty across the models - however both ecm/gfs showing the jet diggging south again into Europe by day 10, that said ukmo/ecm look different at 144 so who knows...

And thats the key, getting the jet to dig south into Europe, then the doors open to some amplification in the Atlantic - very hard to envisage an extended + NAO with low pressure across Southern Europe..

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Better 0z runs across the board this morning. 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

 

If that low mid Atlantic moves SE i assume the cold flood gates would open?

[fergieweather]

33 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Displaced PV episode ahead.   Entirely plausible run for me and seems to be a generally run theme.

 

BFTP 

...and - as over successive runs across many days - GloSea remains keen on a blocked story emerging into December. It'll be interesting to see how ECMWF Monthly handles things later this evening.

[Frosty.]

Lovely charts from the Gfs 00z with reloading cold shots from the nw / n

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

If that low mid Atlantic moves SE i assume the cold flood gates would open?

That would be very nice MS, still, probs be different come evening time but at least the idea of the jet digging south is more evident on the ops this morning, Fergie has just posted about GLosea depicting a blocked setup into Decemeber so fingers crossed - to be brutally honest while i love to see snow falling i will happily take a blocked set up in any form for the start of December, nothing worse than going to christmas markets etc with wind and pouring rain!! A cold / foggy high will do for me !

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...and - as over successive runs across many days - GloSea remains keen on a blocked story emerging into December. It'll be interesting to see how ECMWF Monthly handles things later this evening.

Blocked is good, no floods etc. Would that be a high latitude block Or mid latitude block signal from GloSea Ian?

regards 

karl

[Frosty.]

Nice to see the jet digging south on the Ecm 00z with increasing cold potential for the uk.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[SteveB]

14 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...and - as over successive runs across many days - GloSea remains keen on a blocked story emerging into December. It'll be interesting to see how ECMWF Monthly handles things later this evening.

 

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Blocked is good, no floods etc. Would that be a high latitude block Or mid latitude block signal from GloSea Ian?

regards

karl

Preferred option would be high latitude block, but I would take any block over Atlantic dross all day long.

I think many flood victims from previous Winters would welcome a drier than average Winter.

 

Models look good this morning, things are quietly ticking along in the right direction.

Edited November 10, 2016 by SteveB

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, SteveB said:

 

Preferred option would be high latitude block, but I would take any block over Atlantic dross all day long.

I think many flood victims from previous Winters would welcome a drier than average Winter.

 

Models look good this morning, things are quietly ticking along in the right direction.

Of course, I'm just seeing Ian might be able to give us the form horse. Few days ago I would have said HLB but I've read a few posts saying could be west of uk, or even over us. I'm doing some digging basically :-)

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Of course, I'm just seeing Ian might be able to give us the form horse. Few days ago I would have said HLB but I've read a few posts saying could be west of uk, or even over us. I'm doing some digging basically :-)

Well if we get high pressure building north in mid atlantic we would be in for Arctic maritime which would be great at the start of winter with more chance of troughs swinging south and not 1 day topplers!

Edited November 10, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

24 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Blocked is good, no floods etc. Would that be a high latitude block Or mid latitude block signal from GloSea Ian?

regards 

karl

2

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

25 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice to see the jet digging south on the Ecm 00z with increasing cold potential for the uk.

 

 

 

 

 

And the ECM 0z continues to back up my observations from last night's post too. The 17th to the 19th November is my watch period! as it is with a few other netweather members in here.  We just need some consistency in the coming days of how the NW'rly is handled and whether the winds do indeed back around to the North/Northeast as I've been hinting at for a few days now. The ECM 12z and the last frame of today's UKMO run should be telling. Here's hoping the good news continues for coldies, although we are a good few days away yet from said timeframes becoming a reality!

Edited November 10, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Encouraging 0z runs this morning if cold (or at least not mild) is your bag.

Looking at the outlook over the next 7 days for at least my corner of the UK temperatures are going to struggle to exceed 7/8 degrees so no real mild to speak of.

Hopefully the jet will dig South towards the end of November as hinted at by ECM and GFS this morning and we then have a chance of some real cold weather if and when any amplification does occur.

[North East Blizzard]

After a massive up tick yesterday, the zonal winds are once again forecast to plummet.

[nick sussex]

Reasons to be cheerful if you're looking for colder weather. The PV turns up over Greenland but doesn't put its feet up and set in for the long haul. In recent winters the sight of the PV limpeted to the north has been very dispiriting for coldies in here.

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

After a massive up tick yesterday, the zonal winds are once again forecast to plummet.

Isn't that suggesting a reversal as we reach the end of November?

If so then there could be some very interesting output over the coming days

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Reasons to be cheerful if you're looking for colder weather. The PV turns up over Greenland but doesn't put its feet up and set in for the long haul. In recent winters the sight of the PV limpeted to the north has been very dispiriting for coldies in here.

 

Haha yes that made me titter nick

I for one get very jumpy when i see any signs of the PV moving over Greenland!

Like you say it looks like a brief visit as it stands, we gotta get rid of those pesky heights across Europe and then its game on!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Haha yes that made me titter nick

I for one get very jumpy when i see any signs of the PV moving over Greenland!

Like you say it looks like a brief visit as it stands, we gotta get rid of those pesky heights across Europe and then its game on!

Yes the sight of the PV in here normally sends coldies into despair. Not surprising given recent woeful winters. 

[Singularity]

9 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

After a massive up tick yesterday, the zonal winds are once again forecast to plummet.

An excellent example of why a single day's output can't be taken too seriously in isolation. This morning the next round of increasing high latitude GPH has suddenly appeared on the NWP radar - but if course there are many ways the models may interpret it. Should be entertaining, at least some of the time anyway.