Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[lorenzo]

To a few points before - 

a) no one is letting anyone down

b) no one is tempering expectations

c) folks are just commenting on what is in front of them given a crucial lead period into winter.

No cause for despondency or otherwise !

Plus never in a zillion years of model watching will an 18z determine anything, it's crazy but only as a close second to the 06Z GFS which should have been binned around 8 years ago. Think of the 06 as an episode of a binge TV series that is a filler. It doesn't advance the plot, it throws up curveballs and adds little value..

Folklore says the GFS 18z due to increased Obs input follows the ECM 12z - this happens once in a blue moon to my eye, what it can do on rare occasions is sniff out a solution ahead of a wholesale pattern shift given it's timing. Other than that it is usually a fun run to watch... and it's ensembles given it produces a carnage operational run can lead to proper weather modelling porn of either bias.

A good steer on where the various suites are can be found in the CPC Ens commentary where they talk about the consensus blend on offer an example of which is here. Note they do include 10% of the 06Z GFS but I guess the USA has had a tough day...

 http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO HIGH MODEL SPREAD AND A PREDICTED LOW AMPLITUDE, PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.

 

 

[Ali1977]

This looks a great chart , but similar ones haven't materialised into anything to talk about yet. High over Greeny, WAA into Canada , no PV, Scandy high!! Sounds good, but no cigar - yet !!

Full of potential 

Edited November 9, 2016 by Ali1977

[Cheshire Freeze]

18z very good IMO in context of recent runs...difference upstream from 12z is clear to see

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Sounds like we have gone from uncertain to very uncertain over the last 24 hours.

We are still in a better place than this time last year with at least polar maritime incursions likely during the next few weeks as the models show the jet alignment becoming wnw / ese and possibly nw / se by late next week onwards..no need for any coldie to be downbeat on the 9th November

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

18z very good IMO in context of recent runs...difference upstream from 12z is clear to see

It's the tonic we needed tonight. I don't even care if it is way off the mark! We just needed it

[January Snowstorm]

1 minute ago, lorenzo said:

 

Plus never in a zillion years of model watching will an 18z determine anything, it's crazy but only as a close second to the 06Z GFS which should have been binned around 8 years ago. Think of the 06 as an episode of a binge TV series that is a filler. It doesn't advance the plot, it throws up curveballs and adds little 

 

I disagree.

Whatever run be it 06z or 18z incorporates the latest data.

The 06Z gfs run a week ago was the first run to indicate the vortex becoming more organised. It was spot on!

[karlos1983]

I feel like somebody would feel, if the last time they saw Donald Trump was doing an interview with Ali G, before slipping in to a coma for ten years and seeing him being elected as president of the United States when they woke up.....

extremely confused by the last couple of pages of conflicting messages. 

Reading between some very blurred lines, I don't think we are any nearer to knowing what the start of winter may bring? 

 

 

[Zakos]

GFS definitively firming up on the Atlantic ridge/Siberian high link up over Greenland on the last 3 runs.

 

Edited November 9, 2016 by Zakos

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

18z very good IMO in context of recent runs...difference upstream from 12z is clear to see

And that smashed up PV is in a pseudo reliable timeframe too.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I disagree.

Whatever run be it 06z or 18z incorporates the latest data.

The 06Z gfs run a week ago was the first run to indicate the vortex becoming more organised. It was spot on!

It hasn't happened yet..so it's not spot on

[Hocus Pocus]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

And that smashed up PV is in a pseudo reliable timeframe too.

Is it being over progressive though as the 18z sometimes can be. I think Ian's update shows just how volatile the models are at the moment  but still it's a bit of a choker considering how upbeat they were for cold just a week ago towards the latter end of the month. I suppose a week is a long time in weather. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Bit of a bonkers run to be honest...just look at all that WAA heading due N straight up through W Russia...would think that would have consequences through deep FI

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Bit of a bonkers run to be honest...just look at all that WAA heading due N straight up through W Russia...would think that would have consequences through deep FI

+ EYE EYE  _   HERE COMES THE BEAST!!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

+ EYE EYE  _   HERE COMES THE BEAST!!!!

Oh, here we go..

[Ali1977]

Well hello pub run!!  Best FI chart for a fair while!! 

No cold uppers associated with it, but nice potential . If this was "later into Winter we'd have a nice snowstorm in the SW with this.

Edited November 9, 2016 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Oh, here we go..

Pity this run doesn't go out to the 400+ mark!!!!!!    -     we would see a right f blizzard.

Edited November 9, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows cold incursions from both polar and Arctic..not bad!

[lorenzo]

16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I disagree.

Whatever run be it 06z or 18z incorporates the latest data.

The 06Z gfs run a week ago was the first run to indicate the vortex becoming more organised. It was spot on!

No worries.. disagreement is good, was just trying to give my take on how it behaves generally and some fun thrown in.

Nevertheless here are the figures http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/

Days 1,3,5 see a disconnect for 06Z modelling vs other runs and then it varies from there, have not been empirical with my thoughts just commenting on many years learning from others experience on here and how this run is viewed. Hey, maybe it's got better!

 

 

[Frosty.]

Charts from the 18z which would scream wintry potential for the uk with a bit of fine tuning..coldies can expect plenty to encourage us in the weeks ahead.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Just as a reminder. None of the great Winter's such as 1946/47, 1962/63, 1978/79 or even 2009/10 (though 2010/11 did, but remember that ended early just as it started early) got going early enough to be in anywhere near of the models reliable timeframe yet. It's very easy when we get to November to feel somewhat deflated by proceedings, as Winter is literally round the corner. But we've also got to remember that though this may be so, we're still a long way from having any confident idea how the Winter season will pan out (indeed even when it starts it's far from certain at least at the beginning). So as long as things look like they may be conducive to deliver cold weather at least further down the line we've got absolutely nothing to panic about yet. We've just got to recognise and appreciate exactly the time of year it now is, which is still the last third of Autumn which is a time of year whatever year, we should expect very little in terms of cold in these islands but at the same time we should appreciate and recognise that at this juncture we're doing not bad at all for where we are and this coming Winter has a lot to play for going forward. Yes we've been teased a little recently but at the same time whether or whether not some of these projections have materialised to the degree they have shown, has at least shown that the atmosphere is in a state to possibly deliver and this can only be a good thing as we head into the true Winter season which as yet still lies ahead in the distance.

[Hocus Pocus]

Well the 18z has certainly brought back a smile to my face, though the volatility of the  models will no doubt throw a completely opposite solution tomorrow. Such is life being a winter weather watcher.

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Just as a reminder. None of the great Winter's such as 1946/47, 1962/63, 1978/79 or even 2009/10 (though 2010/11 did, but remember that ended early just as it started early) got going early enough to be in anywhere near of the models reliable timeframe yet. It's very easy when we get to November to feel somewhat deflated by proceedings, as Winter is literally round the corner. But we've also got to remember that though this may be so, we're still a long way from having any confident idea how the Winter season will pan out (indeed even when it starts it's far from certain at least at the beginning). So as long as things look like they may be conducive to deliver cold weather at least further down the line we've got absolutely nothing to panic about yet. We've just got to recognise and appreciate exactly the time of year it now is, which is still the last third of Autumn which is a time of year whatever year, we should expect very little in terms of cold in these islands but at the same time we should appreciate and recognise that at this juncture we're doing not bad at all for where we are and this coming Winter has a lot to play for going forward. Yes we've been teased a little recently but at the same time whether or whether not some of these projections have materialised to the degree they have shown, has at least shown that the atmosphere is in a state to possibly deliver and this can only be a good thing as we head into the true Winter season which as yet still lies ahead in the distance.

Spot on - we have been spoiled recently and we have to remember tomorrow is only 10th November. 

When did we last have snow this early?

And as for next week, it looks like a period of raging north westerlies is looking likely which should at least liven things up a bit. And in 3 weeks, winter starts ;-)

[feb1991blizzard]

ECM ens are a massive downgrade on the 0z.

 

However - GEFS 18z are a slight upgrade - mean trough (all be it shallow) diving a bit further into continental Europe than the 12z.

Edited November 9, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[ITSY]

Lots of ups and downs to be expected. Signals all over the place, clearly. The 18z suite on GEFS sees about 50% with absolutely crazy Synoptics across the North Atlantic. Don't buy into the 'one run = my life's worth' game - you'll always be disappointed. Trends haven't shifted very much. Take them a few days at a time people!! Great 18z, slightly disappointed 12z, but all still to play for.

[sorepaw1]

Currently showing on the 00z at T+192 hrs..

Notice how tight the isobars and wind direction and the high and low pressure placements at 192 hrs.

I consider that not to be far from a guidance time frame. 

I'd like to go into more detail and post upto T+204hrs. But I have to set off for work and scrape ice off my subaru forester lol. But I'm sure they'll be lots to talkabout this morning. 

Edited November 10, 2016 by sorepaw1