Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[phil nw.]

It's having a struggle but by the week end we see the Atlantic finally breaking through as more fronts move in giving us a wet Saturday

Pressure building across the south afterwards from the Azores high which pushes some milder air in for a few days but by day 8 -this on the ECM mean chart -we see this starting to pull back into the Atlantic as the Greenland upper trough starts it's move east.

 and day 10

it's from there that the mean jet meanders south across us again with some incursions of polar air from the north west..As Blue alluded to the London graph showing a wide spread in week 2 which i would think reflects the changeable regime with a mix of air masses.

 

We seem to have lost the signal for any notable Atlantic ridging for the time being,so as it looks currently nothing out of the ordinary is on the agenda.The movement of the PV  across the north looks like bringing us more normal November weather off the Atlantic in a brisk west to north westerly flow,with some rain and showers,which will be colder at times,especially further north.

Edited November 9, 2016 by phil nw.

[karyo]

57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

06z GFS keeps the heating on in the Strat.

That's now becoming a bit more consistent. Anyone know what the ECM is showing? 

Cheers 

I would be happier if the warming was projected on a different location.

Correct me if I am wrong but this can keep the vortex over our side of the north hemisphere with Atlantic depressions in control while North America freezes.

[karlos1983]

22 minutes ago, karyo said:

I would be happier if the warming was projected on a different location.

Correct me if I am wrong but this can keep the vortex over our side of the north hemisphere with Atlantic depressions in control while North America freezes.

Lets hope for a split then if it does evolve 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

38 minutes ago, karyo said:

I would be happier if the warming was projected on a different location.

Correct me if I am wrong but this can keep the vortex over our side of the north hemisphere with Atlantic depressions in control while North America freezes.

Looking at the GFS output at face value I'd suggest that it would go on to produce a SSW in the long run but I'm not clued up on that side of proceedings...far more learned members on here. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows a milder day on saturday but it probably won't feel that mild if you are stuck under a slow moving rain band across the east but once that's cleared out into the north sea, it becomes brighter / cooler from the west, however, the Azores high then ridges NE across the south of the uk introducing mild air once again which lasts a few days and brings some respite from the unsettled weather across the south. Further ahead we see an increasingly trough dominated outlook with cooler air from the north Atlantic and occasional polar maritime influence but later, the south becomes more benign with overnight frost and fog but it stays more unsettled further north.

Edited November 9, 2016 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

We seem to have lost the signal for any notable Atlantic ridging for the time being,so as it looks currently nothing out of the ordinary is on the agenda.The movement of the PV  across the north looks like bringing us more normal November weather off the Atlantic in a brisk west to north westerly flow,with some rain and showers,which will be colder at times,especially further north.

Thats the main thing I'm seeing from today's output, so all getting rather back to normal too me with a more stubborn PV and atlantic based weather which at times could be of a colder variety.

Still noticetable and perhaps a bit depressing at just how warm the Arctic is, all thanks to the NAO and constant southerly flow from the Atlantic but we can have a NAO all we like but if other things don't fall into place then we can see from the past, it might count for nothing in the end.

All in all, some normal autuminal weather coming up with a mixture of tropical and polar airmasses

[Tim Bland]

Echoing what others have said I'm getting a feeling of deja Vu with recent winters.  PV looks like firing up and centering in its usual place around Greenland and we are left looking at the far reaches of FI for a SSW which never gets any closer.  All of the blocking we have seen so far this autumn will be worth nothing once the dreaded PV over Greenland and heights over Europe pattern locks in.  Lets just pray the models flip back to showing a more mobile PV and heights over the pole.

 

The only thing giving me confidence of a cold winter is the fact Knocker has stopped posting  

Edited November 9, 2016 by Tim Bland

[phil nw.]

A post has been removed-sensible comments on the models only please-ta.

[karlos1983]

I don't really share the concerns, we all knew that the PV was going to temporarily setup back over Greenland, that was pretty well modeled a few days ago.

The AO is due to go negative again, The Jet stream is nothing like last November in terms of strength. We don't have weather system after weather system driving across the Atlantic at our shores.

The ECM, GFS and GEM for example, all agree that the PV will not be in placed over the pole at +240. I don't care if it's 10 days away, that's agreement of the theme!

Not a bad position to be in as we near a winter that hasn't even started yet, and some already have snow on the ground!

We are in a period of nailing down what happens next, but it's all positive from what I'm looking at, reading etc. 

Edited November 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z perturbations are a mixed bag of mild, cold and in between but these are my cherry pick of the colder ones!

[marksiwnc]

I remember the models were flipping and flopping prior to the major cold in 2010 and to have the met office on board surely is enough confirmation that's it's going to be colder.  especially after their outlook update today with the month getting colder and snow to even low levels in the north.  I expect the south and especially central parts to be hit by some of the white stuff by the end of this month.  time will tell I suppose 

[Hocus Pocus]

Though the models don't look great for entrenched cold nor do they look good/bad (depending on your viewpoint ) for anything other than  average with the odd mild day thrown in. Still no sign of anything organised towards Greenland and as long as that remains in situ then I'll keep the GP's appointment for anti-depressants on hold for now.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, marksiwnc said:

I remember the models were flipping and flopping prior to the major cold in 2010 and to have the met office on board surely is enough confirmation that's it's going to be colder.  especially after their outlook update today with the month getting colder and snow to even low levels in the north.  I expect the south and especially central parts to be hit by some of the white stuff by the end of this month.  time will tell I suppose 

Yes quite a positive update for coldies today, snow to lower levels up north towards the end of November!

Ties in to some extent with the sinking jet scenario suggested by the ECM 00z run, sounds like a cold north wester to me...

[North East Blizzard]

I'm not sure where this PV ramping up is coming from, there is a portion of the vortex moving transitionally through Greenland in the next week or so, but then we are left with a chart's like these at 240 hours which has the vortex in pieces. Nothing like the last few years at all.

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

 I'll keep the GP's appointment for anti-depressants on hold for now.

Maybe we need GP to launch another torpedo

The models look promising in the medium / longer range for a nw / se aligned jet with Pm / Am incursions and hopefully with some longevity too.

[Gael_Force]

59 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Echoing what others have said I'm getting a feeling of deja Vu with recent winters.  PV looks like firing up and centering in its usual place around Greenland and we are left looking at the far reaches of FI for a SSW which never gets any closer.  All of the blocking we have seen so far this autumn will be worth nothing once the dreaded PV over Greenland and heights over Europe pattern locks in.  Lets just pray the models flip back to showing a more mobile PV and heights over the pole.

 

The only thing giving me confidence of a cold winter is the fact Knocker has stopped posting  

I'm no strat expert but an avid reader of the posts on there. I think the purpose of the SSW is to split asunder the vortex but that does not seem to be required at present as there is no sign of a clumping vortex: pretty well scattered as is and signs of displacement to Siberia with the attendant chance of northerly flow if replicated at lower atmospheric levels.

I did wonder where @knocker was .... he is still visiting so hope all is well with him.

[daz_4]

Ensembles definitely have warming trend even for central Europe but the third decade is still 11 days away and we all know how quickly the northern blocking appeared in models at the beginning of October so I'm not overly concerned for now. Not to mention that models still haven't figured out how the next week will look like. Hopefully it won't be a boring inversion with extremely polluted air which is specialty of this region.

Nevertheless, cold weekend ahead of us with snow even in lowlands. Looks like that old proverb we have for 11.11. will come true this year: "Martin is coming on a white horse"  No complains from me.

 

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Ensembles definitely have warming trend even for central Europe but the third decade is still 11 days away and we all know how quickly the northern blocking appeared in models at the beginning of October so I'm not overly concerned for now. Not to mention that models still haven't figured out how the next week will look like. Hopefully it won't be a boring inversion with extremely polluted air which is specialty of this region.

Nevertheless, cold weekend ahead of us with snow even in lowlands. Looks like that old proverb we have for 11.11. will come true this year: "Martin is coming on a white horse"  No complains from me.

 

Hi Daz, Where exactly do you live in Czech Republic?

There is still quite an uncertainty as to how much snow will fall and at what altitude over the weekend in Central Europe.

I am flying over to Tatra Mountains in Slovakia tomorrow for 3 days and hope that kids will some of the white stuff, indeed there is a chance that Martin will come on the white horse as the proverb says, there is interesting article about Martin on the white horse on the official Slovak Met office site: http://www.shmu.sk/sk/?page=2049&id=766

 

[daz_4]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

Hi Daz, Where exactly do you live in Czech Republic?

In the eastern part 20 minutes from Polish and Slovakian borders (20 km south of Ostrava to be more precise).

And true, there are differences even at 90 hours. ECM being colder than GFS. We'll see but mountains are covered with snow already so you will definitely see some of the white stuff 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

In the eastern part 20 minutes from Polish and Slovakian borders (20 km south of Ostrava to be more precise).

And true, there are differences even at 90 hours. ECM being colder than GFS. We'll see but mountains are covered with snow already so you will definitely see some of the white stuff 

Beautiful place! I was in Morawa Poland a few years ago, and yes there will be snow there for sure in the mountains.

Pozdro

Here comes 12zgfs - hopefully a good run for cold lovers ..

Edited November 9, 2016 by northwestsnow

[jules216]

2 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

In the eastern part 20 minutes from Polish and Slovakian borders (20 km south of Ostrava to be more precise).

And true, there are differences even at 90 hours. ECM being colder than GFS. We'll see but mountains are covered with snow already so you will definitely see some of the white stuff 

Morava can get a lot of white stuff over 1Mt during some past winters on high ground, I am originally from town about 70km south of High Tatras and we unfortunately get snow shadows from High and Low Tatras from Notherlies or North Westerlies.

Fingers crossed for a reasonable weekend so I can get my winter snow fix early this year, although it will be fun driving across from Krakow on Thursday night to our hotel.

Next week looks quite mild so the snow will probably melt below 1000mts by about Wednesday, hopefully skying season can start early this year as the tourism depends so much on it in Winter

[Mucka]

The models seem pretty disinterested in any height rises to our NW in second half of November at the moment which I find a little surprising and a little disappointing as I thought we would see some signs of Atlantic blocking in FI by today.

That said the ensembles are showing wide scatter but with a noticeable cluster going for colder, if not frigid, temps from around the 19th within the ECM suite. Could just be a cool NW flow without Atlantic ridge though.

GFS a little less keen as yet although there has always been a reasonable amount of runs going for some type of blocking to set up, just no coherent signal.

Of the operational outputs there is broadscale agreement for a mean trough somewhere just East of the UK by around day 10 which would provide a cool NW flow, This trough is currently modeled to be shallower and further NE than may be the case and this has been an area they have continually struggled with overestimating the Westward progression of troughs and underestimating how far they will dig into Northern Europe or how much energy is disrupted SE. With that in mind we may see some favourable (for blocking) corrections over the next 24/48h and maybe something to watch for those of us who like to follow every run.

Eyes down for the evening output and congrats to those who saw their first snow of the season.

 

Edited November 9, 2016 by Mucka

[Seasonality]

42 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Hi Daz, Where exactly do you live in Czech Republic?

There is still quite an uncertainty as to how much snow will fall and at what altitude over the weekend in Central Europe.

I am flying over to Tatra Mountains in Slovakia tomorrow for 3 days and hope that kids will some of the white stuff, indeed there is a chance that Martin will come on the white horse as the proverb says, there is interesting article about Martin on the white horse on the official Slovak Met office site: http://www.shmu.sk/sk/?page=2049&id=766

 

Further north in central Europe my wife tells me there has been light snow on and off all day in Warsaw. Little settling in town but 5-10cm in the countryside just to the north-east with more forecast for Friday. You should be safe up in the Tatras for a bit of the white stuff I would think.

[Ali1977]

I agree with Mucka, I thought we may start seeing some better FI charts. I still think it's a few days too early if the possibilities the METO mentioned are correct however.

Has anyone got an image of the ECM ensembles?  I like the sound that a cluster are going for a colder setup.

The NH is by no means full of raging PV - keep an eye on the ensembles and I'm sure we will start seeing an improvement soon. The ECM has looked interesting at day10 a few times so don't discount that neither.

 

 

[fergieweather]

29 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The models seem pretty disinterested in any height rises to our NW in second half of November at the moment which I find a little surprising and a little disappointing as I thought we would see some signs of Atlantic blocking in FI by today.

 

With both long range suites (ECMWF and GloSea) still agreed on a zonal and/or cyclonic bias remaining into late November - and % likelihood of a blocked set-up emerging at some point from mid-month until then remaining very tricky to quantify - it's unsurprising we see operational models churning-out their present fare. It'll take a while for response to predicted MJO phase (to 7/8) in next week and half to be adequately resolved, with the favoured effect of these phases still apparently in conflict to the more mobile EC/GloSea signals we see at present. Indeed, it's only at the turn of the month when we see EC and GloSea both switch to a signal indicative of a more blocked regime (EC's Monday run developing heights to our NW, whilst GloSea evolves a broad +ve MSLP signal in vicinity of the UK). So there's still great cause for uncertainty and ditto, much room for suspicion about how models are handing the route ahead. As I mentioned yesterday, the ENS members going more blocked set-up mid-late Nov remain a sizeable minority... but ones that may yet prove prophetic. 

Edited November 9, 2016 by fergieweather