Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Team Jo]

Given that we are seeing snow right now, tonight, this early in the season, and there are plenty of indications of interesting things to come - far more so than previous years- the despondency this evening is surprising - maybe some reverse psychology at work...

I suppose I'd just like to remind everyone that we are not in the same position as we've been in for the last few winters and although it's natural to be cautiously excited, and indeed balanced, I don't think it's necessary to pick every single run to bits waiting for it to all go awry..

 

 

[damianslaw]

General consensus from the models is a period of rather average November conditions ahead under a predominantly NW/West flow, with polar maritime air inching out returning polar maritime air, no sign of a surge of tropical maritime air anything especially mild for the time of year. Polar vortex in no rush to form into a significant feature, just when it should be ramping into gear.

Typing this whilst moderate snow is coming down and sticking, under marginal synoptical set up, with no especially cold uppers, just the effect of evaporative cooling, cold surface air.

[fergieweather]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Greenland uppers remain above average with slightly raised anomolys in that area. 

...albeit equally interesting how we now have an emergent if presently minority cluster (circa 10% in 12z ENS) from the 19th, which - rather than raise heights over Greenland - instead do so markedly above Scandinavia and the White Sea, with a cut-off vortex to our south and a resultant net easterly flow. Varied medium-range shenanigans loom (persist!?), me thinks.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...albeit equally interesting how we now have an emergent if presently minority cluster (circa 10% in 12z ENS) from the 19th, which - rather than raise heights over Greenland - instead do so markedly above Scandinavia and the White Sea, with a cut-off vortex to our south and a resultant net easterly flow. Varied medium-range shenanigans loom (persist!?), me thinks.

The 06z GEFS had a similar picture with quite a few showing strong Scandy highs. Interesting !!

[marksiwnc]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

...albeit equally interesting how we now have an emergent if presently minority cluster (circa 10% in 12z ENS) from the 19th, which - rather than raise heights over Greenland - instead do so markedly above Scandinavia and the White Sea, with a cut-off vortex to our south and a resultant net easterly flow. Varied medium-range shenanigans loom (persist!?), methinks

 

Hahahahah Ian you know how to wind the coldies up lmao..  I can see December being cold with a wishbone effect on some costs resulting in quite a dumping of snow on exposed coasts.  that's my pounds worth.  interspersed with drier colder weather in-between.  also a few weather systems brushing the south at times.  .. see if I'm right come Christmas 

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...albeit equally interesting how we now have an emergent if presently minority cluster (circa 10% in 12z ENS) from the 19th, which - rather than raise heights over Greenland - instead do so markedly above Scandinavia and the White Sea, with a cut-off vortex to our south and a resultant net easterly flow. Varied medium-range shenanigans loom (persist!?), me thinks.

The lack of anomolys on the extended 12z run (inc those that do exist being weak) could be seen to be indicative of a possible change in pattern looming. Whilst 10% is small, at least it's a cluster! 

[bobbydog]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm, not keen on that Blue, i did notice the cold beginning to 'bottle up' over Greenland on the ecm12z. Interesting nonetheless..

Just to clarify, here's a bottle-

And here's the ECM at day 10 -

Here's YOUR bottle -

We like your bottle....

[Ali1977]

Stronger looking Scandy high on the 15th this run - maybe a tip of the hat to the 10 percent Ian mentioned around the 19th.

Latest below

JMA looking like hinting at a SH too!! Interesting .

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[Frosty.]

A truly wintry night is unfolding on the Gfs 18z with several inches of snow on higher ground of northern england and Scotland, and even some snow to lower ground too, snow will be heavy in places and tomorrow the snow only slowly peters out but it's a thoroughly cold day across the north and especially parts of scotland, amazing for early November and hopefully a sign of things to come when north, south, east and west will join in the snowy fun!

Edited November 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Stronger looking Scandy high on the 15th this run - maybe a tip of the hat to the 10 percent Ian mentioned around the 19th.

Latest below

Yep, for me aslong that high stays closer to scandi, you always got a chance down the line, especially if the mid atlantic ridge occurs. It was the main reason why I found the ECM dissapointing as its just shoved it out of the way back to its more normal position where it will never affect our weather, the 00Z ECM has the height rises closer to scandi also so hopefully it will prove to be an outlier and the morning runs will tell us more hopefully.

[Ali1977]

Urrrr - the Scandy high is retrogressing!!!

Could it!!!

Seriously cold air associated with it for mid Nov

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[Ice Day]

Stacked with potential at 210 - some proper deep cold over Scandi just needing a trigger to send it our way, although I don't think it's going to happen on this run.

Yet more 'shenanigans' to come over the next few days no doubt.

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Stacked with potential at 210 - some proper deep cold over Scandi just needing a trigger to send it our way, although I don't think it's going to happen on this run.

Yet more 'shenanigans' to come over the next few days no doubt.

That cold pool over southern russia is insane for November. Some serious cold that.

[Scandinavian High.]

I really do think we are in for some proper cold weather later this month with brutal cold coming from the east we'll see how it goes.

[Ravelin]

Whoops, there goes most of the East coast...

Edit: Most probably parts of Holland & Denmark too.

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ravelin

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Urrrr - the Scandy high is retrogressing!!!

Could it!!!

Seriously cold air associated with it for mid Nov

Yep at day 10 troughing slipping S and heights building over the top...an interesting FI coming up

[Ice Day]

Just now, Ravelin said:

Whoops, there goes most of the East coast...

a 960mb low in the North Sea  .  Where on earth did that come from?  Hope that's gone tomorrow.

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Whoops, there goes most of the East coast...

Wouldn't  that chart give snow to many? I know it won't verify by the way.

[Geordiesnow]

Think the GFS has lost it way slightly with that very deep low but from a coldie perspective, really hope its correct in sending the PV towards Scandi and we go from there, a lot more potential than the ECM 12Z run imo.

[Ice Day]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Wouldn't  that chart give snow to many? I know it won't verify by the way.

I would say not as the uppers are too high, although some high ground in the usual places would no doubt get a pasting!

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Whoops, there goes most of the East coast...

Edit: Most probably parts of Holland & Denmark too.

That's a possible snow event there,could be some serious blizzards if that came off.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's a possible snow event there,could be some serious blizzards if that came off.

A bit of sleet but the bigger picture on the Gfs 18z is full of potential for coldies with a bit of tinkering.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A bit of sleet but the bigger picture on the Gfs 18z is full of potential for coldies with a bit of tinkering.

Yes Frosty,i did say possible

we just need those polar heights to gain momentum now to force the jet further south,we will see on subsequent runs to see if this happens.

[Snowman.]

OP and Control at 192 looking similar control with a stronger block to our north-east.

[Allseasons-Si]

the gefs 18z going for a link up of heights NE Canada to NW Russia and we have that low pressure crossing over the uk too as did the op,fascinating stuff this.

Edit:didn't come off though,but i am not complaining

Edited November 8, 2016 by Allseasons-si