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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

h850t850eu.png

Sorry peeps, I'm not used to the new image-handling software...But, why is the optimism always at T+384!:wallbash:

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm lactating with excitement ,over two weeks of waiting for a mediocre PM flow! Off now have to start employing more customer service agents for the Prozac order line! Anyway we've been here before, why do we do this to ourselves! lol

What I don't get is why do lrf's when something like one unforeseen tropical storm or a slight uptick in solar flares could potentially derail the whole forecast. Sounds like a thankless task to me lol.

Edited by blizzard81

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7 minutes ago, legritter said:

I must admit i am watching nearly every run of the charts , but i,v just talked myself into taking some breaks before high level block syndrome kicks in .Pretty sure though that the pros have information and data which points to some kind of block setting up in about 12/15 days time ,so untill we get to early next week i am taking a big deep breath ,getting out on the garden for some digging [ when its thawed out ] tidy up the fish pond [when its thawed out ] replacing the grit in our bin [ some ones taken it ] all isn,t lost gang ,great forum probably by far the best ,with many more weeks of winter to come 13 in all ,cheers gang ,:cold::snowman-emoji:

Probably not a bad thing to do Legritter. I moved to the Alps just over 10 years ago to feed my snow obsession. Even now I still look for snow charts and the next week or so does not hold for good news under middle of that high. Remember there is always the pub to find sanctuary in and forget about charts, but we are in the snow business and that's not easy to manage when there is not much to work with. Thank god for snow cannons.

 C

Edited by carinthian

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Looking at the 06z GEFS updating on meteociel, plenty of perturbations looking more blocked (up to a half) at day 8 (T+192) with the ridge further north than the operational, which has sunk the high S/ SW by then. So 00z ECM deter may have some support.- which is also supported by EPS mean/anomaly.

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6 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Not yet (the wheels)  though a smile is a good thing for sure:D Also this is one of those situations where there is a lot to gain, looking at it another way:)

1) The value of setting the downsides as well as the upsides ahead of anticipating (hoped for) pattern changes and helping to manage expectations ahead of time is being excellently illustrated this morning

That is why I first referred to the 2012 parallel first back on 29/10 (and have revisited the cautionary theme since) in terms of how a promising -AO scenario and cold air advection phase was scuppered by a solar spike (and the MOD descended into chaos).  Discussion here:

However, until/unless anything changes further, keep trusting the broad-scale factors to prevail over the "noise". Which is the essence of GP's posts. The "noise" relates to both the storm(s) in the I/O and also the minor solar flare activity

2) To refer to the GSDM, there is one frictional torque in the tank (as posted the other day) and a second one c/o of the upper vorticity I/O > Maritime eastward propagation of tropical convection.

As posted previously, and alluded to by GP just now, these, in most simplified terms, are the flag-wavers to rises in angular momentum tendency that underpin the amplification ammunition in the tank which frameworks the higher latitude priming of the Atlantic holding pattern in tandem with stratospheric weakness.

There has been a raft of extended model data to keep supporting this programme, and until or if there is any further upgrading of solar activity (which would seek to nullify the cold pattern scenario in the ways described in the linked post), then calmness should prevail. I think, currently, the interference with the tropical convective evolution amounts to some low key shorter term fly ointment in terms of masking the bigger picture we want to see in terms of  a solid track of the MJO towards the Maritimes, but in itself is not a derailment at this time to the cold blocked patterns advertised of late - and which are still showing up in extended GEFS and GEFS suites.

It would be more of a worry if the broad-scale tropical convection feedback loop to the Maritimes that has prevailed for some months was showing signs of fading. That isn't yet the case.

Continuing to be aware of the potential pitfalls equates to forewarned is forearmed as I see it. That turns a (possibly phantom) negative into a rationalised positive.  If and when there are developments that threaten to override the broad-scale macro factors, then the early winter promise may be in trouble. We are not there yet. That is the other positive:)

 

Thank you Tamara. Brilliantly worded as ever. Shame the yanks never have to worry about solar flares lol :)

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If that last CFS run is even remotely like what the LR forecasters are predicting, I will take all the most raging SWlies the Atlantic can conjur until then! Truly ridiculous. FYI it all starts from 20th December and the advection didn't kick off until beyond +360hrs. plenty of time.
 
Ramp. Over.

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Shows the problem, GFS Control has a cracking end, and is the polar (get it) opposite of the det run. 850 ens are a bit useless as they both arrive at pretty cold but by completely different routes. I would say the majority of ENS now going for Greeny high.

Edited by warrenb

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Check out some of the ensemble finishes! 8 or 9 brilliant endings. We are at but the start of the interesting period, as Tamara has eloquently said. Just look at the spread on the 850 graphs. Plenty of time for things to ebb and flow in all sorts of directions from here. But do not expect snowmaggedon to appear as a cross model theme with the click of a button. Evolutions take time - and if we are to evolve into a colder pattern, it is likely to be from here in that we slowly begin to notice the shift. But it might take days, if not a week or two, to even get an idea of when, where, and what.

Edited by ITSY

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Looks like many have beaten me to it, but having been such a kill-joy earlier I feel the need to redeem myself with a selection of tasty GEFS members. Remember the key thing about long range ensembles is clusters, and the point in posting many charts is to demonstrate how a cluster is growing that builds heights to the NW:

gensnh-0-1-360.png  gensnh-16-1-360.png    gensnh-9-1-360.png   gensnh-4-1-360.png  gensnh-3-1-360.png  gensnh-20-1-360.png    gensnh-19-1-360.png

Edited by Man With Beard

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

a gefs suite to warm the cockles of any coldie set against the background monthly

 

 

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

what's that man say ? Something about ensemble means getting stronger the further they go out ?

Enlighten us boys. 

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10 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

 

Enlighten us boys. 

DIY

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=21&mode=0&carte=1

 

also worth running through the spreads to watch where the main area of disagreement in he Atlantic moves and more importantly, where it ends up

the oranges generally represent an area of high heights and you can clearly see a retrogressive signal 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=22&mode=0&carte=1

Edited by bluearmy

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Lol  We are all posting the same thing,  Some quite impressive blocking towards Greenland on a few of the Perbs   hopefully we shall start to see this firm up on the following suites.    ps  Its bitter here today  local pool is frozen over  first time in a few years.

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 Cfs/gefs.....

Let's not laugh at the cfs model just yet 'perhaps' !!!! €

cfs-0-696.png

gens-0-1-372.png

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 Cfs/gefs.....

Let's not laugh at the cfs model just yet 'perhaps' !!!! €

cfs-0-696.png

gens-0-1-372.png

Ah, come on. Not even close :-) 

 

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Lol...^^

Note snapshot dates...

And evolutionary possibility. 

.....perhaps. 

:yahoo:

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57 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What I don't get is why do lrf's when something like one unforeseen tropical storm or a slight uptick in solar flares could potentially derail the whole forecast. Sounds like a thankless task to me lol.

This thought has occurred to me at times - it's an interesting one. There is a great video on youtube about the link between solar-induced geomagnetic storms and storm development:

more interesting is that fact that 'solar upticks' seem to appear with planetary alignments - this suggests that long-range weather models might be able to incorporate some element of potential solar influence - although how it would be incorporated is beyond my level of expertise. It would be interesting to know if any weather models do incorporate this type of link: planetary alignment -> solar uptick -> storm activity.

For our cold hopes, it is worth bearing in mind that for a little while there has been an 'earth-facing-solar-quiet' in operation, that dampens sunspot activity when they face earth - so the particular sunspot may well go to sleep for a while!

Picked all this up from Suspicious Observers: http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/

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