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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Vortex being squeezed over to Siberian side in this run. Is this not the hemispheric pattern that we 'need' looking back at @nick sussex's post earlier?

gfsnh-0-192.png

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Get the feeling we are taking steps backwards today. That was the most downbeat post from GP for quite some time. What I want to know is what is causing the (four) sudden storms in the indian ocean? I assume the models never saw them forming?

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I don't want to kill anyone's joy and I'm sure the 1962 analogy will come off one day, but for the sake our sanities I must add:

- Every single year, we get to a point where the daily chart is compared to  a chart from 1947 / 1962 (even 2010 now).

- The synoptic pattern for early December 1962 is comparable to probably 30% of winters in the past 50 years.

 

Yes over comparing of previous winters only gets false hope up, it does look like the sinking of the high will now take place,and we will be back in sw flow for a while:nonono:

 

 

Edited by snowice

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12 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Thanks for your help, guys. I see tonight is predicted to be a night of generally less severe frosts. According to the Beeb forecasts I've seen, this GFS t+21hrs (7am December 1st) chart from the 6z showing relevant 2m Temperatures should be somewhat accurate.

 

This is obviously what I should have been looking for, before getting confused with my 850s and inversion issues. You live and learn. I will also keep an eye out for dew point charts in conjunction with the forecasted 850 charts. Simply proves to me, we shouldn't take everything at face value and need to account for several parameters at once when second guessing what the model predictions are indicating. :)

 

GFS charts - 30th November 2016 06z UK 2m Temperatures t+21hrs.gif

Have a look at http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=&y=&lat=51.40&lon=-1.32&run=0&ext=com&mode=7&sort=0

I set the location to Newbury, which is where you say you are in your profile. This shows the GFS and ensembles. You can play with the 2m temp, 850, 500, precipitation, etc. 

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Re the sun - we want a quiet rather than active sun at the moment

if we had significant n Atlantic to scandi blocking in place and a southerly jet firing through to the eastern med then I wouldn't be too concerned about an uptick in solar activity. At this early stage of the season with the blocks falling into place, any kind of curve ball is going to cause potential problems, especially given our locale on the eastern side of a large ocean. 

Thats my non technical take anyway!

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3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Pacific side it's better, our side it's decidedly worse with pressure sinking

Not to worried about the high sinking its the amplifcation in the days after we want to see what the lrf have been predicting, after all they did state a mild blip leading to the HLB.

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I don't want to kill anyone's joy and I'm sure the 1962 analogy will come off one day, but for the sake our sanities I must add:

- Every single year, we get to a point where the daily chart is compared to  a chart from 1947 / 1962 (even 2010 now).

- The synoptic pattern for early December 1962 is comparable to probably 30% of winters in the past 50 years.

 

I was just going to post in the moans thread that if I see 1962 mentioned once more it could well turn me into a mild ramper And this nit picking of every GFS run could well swing me that way as well. :wallbash:

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I was just going to post in the moans thread that if I see 1962 once more it could well turn me into a mild ramper And this nit picking of every GFS runcould well swing me that way as well. :wallbash:

1962

06Z completely different in FI this time. Zonal flow at 240

Just testing :D

 

Edited by warrenb

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Well I'd like to see the block flattened faster. It's actually proving to be a pain in the @rse. If it flattens sooner, we can get some troughing into europe and hopefully allow a new ridge to form to the north west.

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6 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Don't confuse being careful and precise with trigger mechanisms with downbeat ! Just one storm in the Indian Ocean (tropical storm four). Meantime 06z GFS continues with a highly amplified hemispheric long wave pattern. Oh, and a nice trough developing in the Western Pacific :bomb:

Or in other words, keep calm and carry on.

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That's the problem when you have snow starved snow lovers, it's like an addiction.

We need all our cherries to line up to get the jackpot, nearly always impossible for our neck of the woods. If something going to slightly alter the situation in another part of the world, then it seems to be us that suffer the consequences!

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At least the hills and ski resorts up here might get something from this...

gfsnh-0-240.png?6

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Think some people need to relax a little. The gfs and ecm model only go out to t240 which takes us to the 9th of December. The professional amongst us have always suggested we will see a westerly spell of weather. The models wont yet be picking up any signals for mid December. My advice would be take a week to 10 days break from the models then come back. I'm sure as we enter mid December the worm will turn. 

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I think the best way to describe the GFS FI at the moment is "Clueless".

Completely different 4 runs in a row. It just doesn't have a clue as to what to do with the PV, or lack or stretched or displaced PV

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Dear me what an underwhelming GFS run. No PV split and any upstream amplification doesn't last long.  Again bad timing here, the upstream amplification that does happen comes at a time when the ships already sailed in Europe and we won't manage to retrogress the high, earlier events including the parcel of low heights that run nw past Ireland already mean that all amplification does at that point is keep us on the warm side of the jet. In a word dire so far.

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29 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

This is obviously what I should have been looking for, before getting confused with my 850s and inversion issues. You live and learn. I will also keep an eye out for dew point charts in conjunction with the forecasted 850 charts, thanks Nick F. Simply proves to me, we shouldn't take everything at face value and need to account for several parameters at once when second guessing what the model predictions are indicating at any one time. :)

 

GFS charts - 30th November 2016 06z UK 2m Temperatures t+21hrs.gif

As Knocker mentioned, 850-1000mb (partial) thickness charts are a good guide too to show where a colder/drier source of air is coming from, that may lower temps. For example, loop below of partial thickness this weekend shows colder/drier continental air feeding in from the near continent, bringing sunnier skies but also a return of frosts after a milder, cloudier and frost free end to this week:

gfsgif_thk850.gif

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People should be looking for trends in GEFS/EPS etc at times like these, slowly you should start seeing a few colder FIs creep in  - if that is the way the weather will turn....The last few runs have started throwing some colder option in.  Hopefully the 6z will follow the trend.  Remember FI can become completely wrong if something is slightly wrong happens in the medium range - a kind of snowball effect.  Until the METO say otherwise I think all coldies have plenty to be positive about, I also hope their long range forecast starts giving a bit more confidence in their long range models but maybe a little early just yet.

Edited by Ali1977

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3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I think the best way to describe the GFS FI at the moment is "Clueless".

Completely different 4 runs in a row. It just doesn't have a clue as to what to do with the PV, or lack or stretched or displaced PV

Now if it could only push this, say, oh, a thousand miles or so further south we might wake up a bit...

gfsnh-1-336.png?6

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I do hope that these longer term signals for cold aren't derailed by what we've seen so far. The issue as I said a few days ago is that these early problems could be undermining those foundations. The Pacific ridge now doesn't keep the PV family apart and instead is allowed to ping pong across Greenland.

Theres zip chance of deep cold if this PV tennis game continues. Anyway after this mornings outputs it can't get much worse. Let's hope for better this evening!

 

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2 minutes ago, Nicholas B said:

Pretty Sure only the CFS has a handle on this topsy turvy episode (tongue in cheek). But what an amazing run!!!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=696&mode=0&carte=0&run=0

That is an awesome run, and in line with the longer range Pro models.  Maybe the CFS is better than people think.

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40 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Pacific side it's better, our side it's decidedly worse with pressure sinking

Something I've noticed since the move to the sinker which is very beneficial is the movement of the centre of the high moving westwards away from Spain. This is a much better starting point to get anything other than what we have ATM having the high slap bang on top. 

Personally having a short reset moving the high west will be worth it in the long run so when it does climb we are on the eastern flank in a Wintery Northern flow.

gfsnh-0-192.png.90b1e4a871ee8a359f1c623d22c078c4.png

Edited by geordiekev

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