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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 hour ago, MR EXTREMES said:

i agree been watching from behind the sofa its beautiful fresh week or two on the way.

but its clearly showing that high pressure will establish over southern england or bit further south but cant see no sign of northern blocking.

but it is only november but even into december the vortex is being battered but lets see how powerful the vortex is by mid dec.

 

Ive seen nothing to suggest we wont get blocking from mid December by the way.

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
Off topic comment removed

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EDIT - doesn't matter, DELETE

Edited by Sawel

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS - Positive bias

25 Jan 12z 2009 ( yes nearly 8 years ago ) run forecasting for 01st Feb ( T168 ) -

T72 Scandi High in situ

IMG_9783.PNGIMG_9784.PNGIMG_9785.PNGIMG_9786.PNG

Look at all the positive tilt all the way through the run- zero undercutting enery 

net result the central european low stays over warsaw-

Actual verification chart 7 days later

IMG_9782.PNG

low pressure recurved west all the way from Eastern europe.

GFS FAIL.

To be fair though Steve, the 2012 feb cold spell had both models throwing out some real penetrating Easterlies when in the end we had to settle for a battleground, and as for the Dec 2012 model debacle - contrary to popular opinion, it wasn't just the ECM over amplifying the pattern, the GFS had 4 successive runs which were not too dissimilar from the ECM and nearly as cold (uppers wise) as the ECM from the 5th Dec 2012, just that there were more shortwaves involved and a bit more messy.

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49 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO 168 continues the eastward propergation of the Iberian low & sends a tighter squeeze of Easterlies over southern England - Very cold surface air - impossible to tell upper profiles

IMG_9781.PNG

Steve there's no WAA getting to the UK on that - more likely that the Atlantic trough will split again causing a block on warm air from the south. It's not far from full on freeze-up from there.

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If we get some good cloud-breaks, under that HP, frost and freezing fog would make for some spectacular hoar frosts, SS?:D

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6 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

In my personal opinion, 10th December 2010, and forecast for 2nd December 2016 look markedly similar? We all know how end of December ended;)

10th December 2010.gif2nd December.png

Just my amateur perspective of course!

They do look similar. The end of Dec 2010 was the breakdown of the severe cold which begun at the end of November I think, or am I going nuts?

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21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

They do look similar. The end of Dec 2010 was the breakdown of the severe cold which begun at the end of November I think, or am I going nuts?

Specifically why I posted this given the turnout of December 2010, not sure how the charts proceeded from there tho.

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Even by day 4 the high is showing slightly North or the 12z, step towards UKMO may be happening!! Early shout mind you!! 

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GFS 18z V 12z

IMG_9788.PNGIMG_9789.PNG 

Note the left (18z) has a weaker northern arm & a stronger southern arm

vis a vee better run...

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Latest run of CFS not great for December..

cfsnh-3-12-2016.png?00

January is a different story though..

cfsnh-3-1-2017.png?00

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Early days but definitely signs of improvement on the 18z.  Colder uppers lurking closer to the east coast at 96hrs

gfsnh-1-96.png

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Evening everyone, long time no post - 

Please someone correct me if I'm completely wrong, but i think i have just found public ECMWF ensemble data (freely available).

http://www.meteoguru.com/en/pro/ecmwf/?latlon=34.60,15.12

On the side panel where you can search for the city you would like ensembles for, select the city and click the ok button. Then, because for some reason you have to be at certain co-ordinates, drag the curser on the map to somewhere around the figure below:

 

Once the curser has been dropped around here, boom, you get your spaghetti ensemble forecasts, and now we can see why @bluearmy was talking about the control run....

Onto the 18z... Lets she what we have.

Screen Shot 2016-11-29 at 22.00.19.png

Screen Shot 2016-11-29 at 21.59.59.png

 

EDIT: Those are the 00z ensembles, not sure when it will update to 12z 

EDIT 2: No, the dream is over, It says London on the graph but the Lat and Long remain on the placement of the curser - Nearest i can get the cursor to us is Switzerland, still, guess we can have a look at Eastern Europes cold instead then... 

Edited by -uksnow-

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13 minutes ago, -uksnow- said:

Evening everyone, long time no post - 

Please someone correct me if I'm completely wrong, but i think i have just found public ECMWF ensemble data (freely available).

http://www.meteoguru.com/en/pro/ecmwf/?latlon=34.60,15.12

On the side panel where you can search for the city you would like ensembles for, select the city and click the ok button. Then, because for some reason you have to be at certain co-ordinates, drag the curser on the map to somewhere around the figure below:

 

Once the curser has been dropped around here, boom, you get your spaghetti ensemble forecasts, and now we can see why @bluearmy was talking about the control run....

Onto the 18z... Lets she what we have.

Screen Shot 2016-11-29 at 22.00.19.png

Screen Shot 2016-11-29 at 21.59.59.png

 

EDIT: Those are the 00z ensembles, not sure when it will update to 12z 

EDIT 2: No, the dream is over, It says London on the graph but the Lat and Long remain on the placement of the curser - Nearest i can get the cursor to us is Switzerland, still, guess we can have a look at Eastern Europes cold instead then... 

I may be wrong but if the cursor is in north Africa surely the temps would not be 0c?

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3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I may be wrong but if the cursor is in north Africa surely the temps would not be 0c?

850 temps can be, and in some very Northern areas will be very close in the next few days!!

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

850 temps can be, and in some very Northern areas will be in the next few days!!

Fair enough I stand corrected  :)

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