Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Here's the greatest run ive ever seen for your location.

ECH1-168.GIF?12

 

Beat that!!!!!!

but turned out like this! a snowy day here as Atlantic bumped into cold air

archives-2012-2-4-12-0.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

When speaking of 850s does anyone know what today's forecasted figures were for my area (Newbury, Berkshire) as I wasn't far off an ICE day in the end. I reckon tomorrow might yet see one in my region somewhere locally? That's no poor show for late November in any recent year for sure. 

 

Here's the ECM 12z take on the present 850s which is what confuses me somewhat. 

 

Anyway, onwards and upwards from here. Will it be HP all the way in one form or another, I think it will?

ECM 12Z 291116 1300hrs t+0 - 29th November 2016 850s UK VIEW.GIF

How come you're confused? That the 850 temperatures are quite high?

In high pressure situations you'll often get temperature inversions, temperatures at the surface will be lower than higher up. This is why 850 temperatures in these set ups are pretty useless at predicting temperatures at the surface.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Tom Jarvis said:

looks like the ECM has taken a step towards the UKMO

Indeed however there seems to be lots of energy over Greenland at +120 on the ECM which isn't there on the UKMO. Probably will spoil things in the next frame but we shall see...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM 144 very much the middle ground between UKMO and GFS.

UN144-21.GIFECH1-144.GIF?29-0gfsnh-0-144.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but turned out like this! a snowy day here as Atlantic bumped into cold air

archives-2012-2-4-12-0.png

Yes I know, I was gutted we only got about 3 or 4 inches in that whole cold spell, I remember that whole weekend that run came out though, I was at my mates in brum and had to as k to watch the afternoon runs come out, the forum caught light proper, steve Murr was having an orgasm over that run!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some major differences over the USA between the UKMO and the ECM/GFS at T144hrs.

The ECM though has the trigger shortwave in Scandi, that chunk of the PV though pushed south by the Pacific ridge needs to track se away from Scandi otherwise we won't get that shortwave to track favourably.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, Nick L said:

How come you're confused? That the 850 temperatures are quite high?

In high pressure situations you'll often get temperature inversions, temperatures at the surface will be lower than higher up. This is why 850 temperatures in these set ups are pretty useless at predicting temperatures at the surface.

 
 
 
 
 

Yes, Nick, they seemed way too high for today. Thanks, I thought inversions were something to do with it but couldn't see how they related to actual Temperatures on the ground. How come then when most of us chase charts in deep FI with -5c or below 850s are we not happy when +4c 850s can bring entrenched cold? This bit just seems odd to my mind, especially when the warmer oranges and yellows come in and everybody (not ALL) overreact to said chart when in reality it could be darn CHILLY. Simply proves to me that 850s are NOT the only indicator for cold, in fact (here's where your knowledge comes in) what else should we be looking for, Nick L or anyone else?

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

How come you're confused? That the 850 temperatures are quite high?

In high pressure situations you'll often get temperature inversions, temperatures at the surface will be lower than higher up. This is why 850 temperatures in these set ups are pretty useless at predicting temperatures at the surface.

Yes, in fact you will actually see the 850hPa values rise under axis of the high cell... due to effects of subsidence at that level. This is not reflective of surface temps rising..   (yet)!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snowmut said:

Poor old feb could be the first of many to gaga :D,3 crap winters and current model tedium,It'll be like one flew over the cuckoos nest in here soon if we don't see some decent white stuff modeld sharpish!!!:crazy:

gfs-1-240.png?12 :nonono:

 

I still think we will be ok - the high will sink but the pattern will re-amplify.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JMA on the way out, more in line with UKMO than GFS :wink:

JN132-21.GIF?29-12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

ECM backs ukmo!!!

Say hello to Winter '17☺

Close to a full blown easterly at 168hrs.

The backtrack to COLD has begun!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

To illustrate my point, the sounding from Camborne earlier (actual obs):

03238_2812.gif

The red line is the temperature, you can see it spike up to nearly double figures at the 850hpa level, considerably warmer than at the surface (4.2c). So when looking at the models for likely temperatures in set up for the next week or two, don't look at the 850s!

 
 

Thanks @MattHugo has also mentioned these among others, I knew such things existed but couldn't connect the dots. :D

Edited by gottolovethisweather

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM T168hrs not bad we won't get the sunken high. And we could see a cross polar flow if we can carve some more amplitude upstream at T192hrs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not too bad from the ECM

ECM1-168.GIF?29-0 ECH1-168.GIF?29-0

We do get that cut back of cold air into Europe with an increasingly cold easterly flow. But more intriguing is that deep low pushing into Russia that is associated with the main lobe of the tropospheric vortex, could it align towards Scandinavia and allow the high to retrograde?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECH0-168.GIF?29-0

Just need the blues to get their act together and spread Westwards a bit quicker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It appears

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Close to a full blown easterly at 168hrs.

The backtrack to COLD has begun?

I've corrected you're last sentence:acute:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

ECH0-168.GIF?29-0

Just need the blues to get their act together and spread Westwards a bit quicker

 

I think you might falling into my trap? It will already be nicely cold at the surface I think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Whatever happens with the rest of the ECM we want rid of that crap GFS output. Why should we have to put up with some mild sw tosh when we can lock the cold in and get the ground cold and dry ready for the snow!

 

GFS over doing the sw Tosh?

Ecm over doing the Easterly! 

The wait goes on!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Almost get the split right down to the Atlantic  at day 8/9 but the jet looks like riding across the top of the block. quite an interesting run although the back end may look less exciting. Separating the Siberian and N greeny vortex is a big step forward. Hope it stays that way. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM pushing the block north which may link with heights over pole - no breakdown in the high over us here. I wonder if we can go from a cold dry high,  to a colder snowier setup without really getting slightly milder at all. 

IMG_3659.PNG

Get used to scraping the cars anyway - they didn't get much use last year at all, in fact I've used it more this year before winter than the whole of last winter!!

Edited by Ali1977

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...