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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

The ecm is showing potential at T12 :good:

Are the building blocks present? Will we be given another bite of the cherry?

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Are the building blocks present? Will we be given another bite of the cherry?

That rather depends on whether you are currently sniffing the coffee.

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54 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well on the sinking high, Fergie has said it is the favoured outcome but UKMO does not suggest any quick evolution toward that solution.

The GFS has been fairly consistent with it though but we shall have to wait and see which is correct, not sure how we can call one solution over the other based on current output and divergence emerging at just T96?

I don't hear a rhythmic "death rattle" of GFS toward a Southwesterly regime nor the steady drum beat toward winter blocking of UKMO - I just hear dissonance.

 
1
1
 
 

And all at t+10,800 minutes distance at least before the forecast breakdown (albeit temporary in nature) even if it does occur. :shok: The high sinks one way then the tother, increase in strength and decreases. It matters not, the planes (NWP outputs) are stuck on the runway and aren't flying anywhere soon, we are stuck in the HOLDING pattern for many days yet.

 

Note to all. Not quite sure why certain members get ridiculed when speaking of the reliable but there you go.

Personally, I make FI as somewhere around December 6th at the moment while shortwaves or surface feature developments, far from our shores prior to this, will likely alter current projections slightly. For now, its HP dominance and I don't see that theme relenting for several days yet. Tonight's ECM will probably be similar to yesterday's in its evolution if you ask me, but time will tell.  :friends: 

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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21 hours ago, Tamara said:

archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.png 

After mid December   ????:wink:

 

Hi all ,

Numerous experienced long range forecasts (GP, Met etc..) have highlighted the possibility of a blocking to the north west/east from mid December on....is this through the progression of the current high pressure in situ drifting north or with this sinking and a new block setting up??

sorry just a little confused on what to look for at present with regard to these forecasts 

cheers

edit...not sure why tamara's post is being referred...

Edited by WINTRY WALES

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Just now, WINTRY WALES said:

Hi all ,

Numerous experienced long range forecasts (GP, Met etc..) have highlighted the possibility of a blocking to the north west/east from mid December on....is this through the progression of the current high pressure in situ drifting north or with this sinking and a new block setting up??

sorry just a little confused on what to look for at present with regard to these forecasts 

cheers

I think, reading Fergies morning summary, it is predominantly for the high to sink and a short period of mobility before renewed Atlantic ridging. I didn't get the feeling that all blocking was exclusively delivered in that manner though.

The forecast beyond 5/7 days looks fraught with difficulty at the moment so it is developing situation (isn't it always).

Keep track of ECM and GFS ensembles because they too were somewhat at odds this morning - one shifting toward the other may give better indications of trends than single Operational output or even single ensemble suits.

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Looking at the GFS ensembles....

I'd say 3 of them back the UKMO to some extent in developing an evolution where the high looks set to persist over us at T144(more then the 06z at least.....)

The high may sink... but there is a Signal in the GFS ens for pressure to build in the Mid North Atlantic once again. If that transpires then the mild SW winds may not last very long, thats if they ever transpire at all...

P17 is the pick of the bunch although there are a few stinkers in there.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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The GEFS 6-10 anomaly is consistent with the HP drifting SE. But on the horizon a first glimpse of a new dawn?

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.pnggefs_z500a_nh_65.png

Edited by knocker

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It would be interesting to know GP and Steve murrs take on the current models. I feel something is a foot this month, but cant help feel a bit cautious with the models all producing different synoptics. It did seem there was a lot of positive thoughts and ranping fron our significant and more professional members yesterday when we saw a better amplification on some of the models. But now the knife twists again in modelling, theres not half as many comments from a few of the professional members. Would be nice to hear your thoughts and views :)

Edited by WeatherGuru2012

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12z mean heading down again around mid-month something to keep an eye on over the next week                                                                                                                                                                                                           

gefsens850London0.png

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

12z mean heading down again around mid-month something to keep an eye on over the next week                                                                                                                                                                                                           

gefsens850London0.png

Yes, ive noticed the last few runs have had the odd flatliner or 2 thrown in, that's what we are looking for, if you want it to turn colder, at some point more and more have to flatline low temps.

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12z mean heading down again around mid-month something to keep an eye on over the next week                                                                                                                                                                                                           

gefsens850London0.png

I fancy no17 SS, the orange one!

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P17 GEFS 12z is my idea of perfection..stunning!:crazy:

17_336_850tmp.png

17_360_850tmp.png

17_336_2mtmpmax.png

17_360_2mtmpmax.png

17_384_2mtmpmax.png

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When speaking of 850s does anyone know what today's forecasted figures were for my area (Newbury, Berkshire) as I wasn't far off an ICE day in the end. I reckon tomorrow might yet see one in my region somewhere locally? That's no poor show for late November in any recent year for sure. 

 

Here's the ECM 12z take on the present 850s which is what confuses me somewhat. 

 

Anyway, onwards and upwards from here. Will it be HP all the way in one form or another, I think it will?

ECM 12Z 291116 1300hrs t+0 - 29th November 2016 850s UK VIEW.GIF

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

P17 GEFS 12z is my idea of perfection..stunning!:crazy:

17_384_2mtmpmax.png

Wow, trying to work out my daytime temperature from that last chart were something similar to verify.  I'm a little way ESE of the bottom right hand corner... That would be a daytime maximum in the negative double figures for me, I think... :cold:

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Just now, Nick B said:

Wow, trying to work out my daytime temperature from that last chart were something similar to verify.  I'm a little way ESE of the bottom right hand corner... That would be a daytime maximum in the negative double figures for me, I think... :cold:

It's perfection isnt it:D I would happily sit under high pressure waiting for P17.

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ECM and UKMO at 120....

IMG_0950.PNG

IMG_0951.GIF

ECM looks good so far. We just need to see if that atlantic low can dive south in the next frame and undercut similar to the UKMO.

Edited by Kieran

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5 minutes ago, Nick B said:

Wow, trying to work out my daytime temperature from that last chart were something similar to verify.  I'm a little way ESE of the bottom right hand corner... That would be a daytime maximum in the negative double figures for me, I think... :cold:

Here's the greatest run ive ever seen for your location.

ECH1-168.GIF?12

 

Beat that!!!!!!

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Just now, Kieran said:

ECM and UKMO at 120....

IMG_0950.PNG

IMG_0951.GIF

looks like the ECM has taken a step towards the UKMO

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