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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

I'd be interested to understand why you seem so certain of that since it's not what the UKMO & ECM currently show?

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Just now, warrenb said:

Your a cheery one aren't you.

I would still take the 12z GFS though, with the strat and trop profile it'd soon re-amplify.

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Just now, Ravelin said:

I'd be interested to understand why you seem so certain of that since it's not what the UKMO & ECM currently show?

Its going to be a clear sinker on the ECM if you look at 240, the UKMO and ECM may take more time but it'll be the same result.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would still take the 12z GFS though, with the strat and trop profile it'd soon re-amplify.

Hoorah :D

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

Come on now, you know enough to know that statement is completely wrong. You can't state with certainty what will happen in FI with such model divergence at the moment. Stop being silly.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

No, some models shows that outcome.. It doesn't mean it will happen.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

Based on what evidence?

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npsh500.png  npst30.png

Good to see the Pacific poleward ridge back in the right place on this GFS run, with the consequential stratospheric vortex split up to the mid-levels.

Around the time of the chart on the left, though, is when the inherent model bias pulled the curtains before the lead actor had quite made it onto the stage.

It's the same bias that may be the reason why GFS behaves so little like that simply marvelous 12z UKMO run...! How much I believe this will depend a lot on the 12z EPS but also the ECM for good measure.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its going to be a clear sinker on the ECM if you look at 240, the UKMO and ECM may take more time but it'll be the same result.

We can't get agreement at t96 so I wouldn't be calling 240 with any degree of confidence.

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I am really surprised the UKMO is being dismissed by some... how many times in the past have we seen a cold spell forecast by the GFS only for the UKMO not to back it with the cold spell failing to materialise?

Dismiss the UKMO at your peril.

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3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

Thank you - I am learning so much here. Are you allowed to tell us if it will snow on Christmas day in Devon?

Lol! He'll be able to tell you exactly what time, and how many mm of snow in your garden with the kind of certainty he has. 

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GEM sends the high south right at the end but it's 10 day's out so I wouldn't worry at this range we haven't got agreement 4 or 5 days out let alone worry about D10

gemnh-0-240.png?12

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Look at every single GEFS member, that's overwhelming eveidence, we will see, I will apologise if it doesn't and admit I'm wrong - so will you all do the same if I'm right.

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17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

Please pm me tonight's lottery numbers oh Saddleworth Soothsayer! :drunk-emoji:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=13&mode=0&carte=1  ..........something like this would be nice from more ensemble members over the next few days :)

 

Edited by stratty

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5 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I am really surprised the UKMO is being dismissed by some... how many times in the past have we seen a cold spell forecast by the GFS only for the UKMO not to back it with the cold spell failing to materialise?

Dismiss the UKMO at your peril.

Latest NOAA long-term forecast discussions indicate the UKMO showing a competitive presence amongst the other models in terms of confidence, however, there is no clear model that is favoured at the moment. So frankly, the GFS could still win out in this scenario. But we don't know that yet...

Edited by PersianPaladin

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at every single GEFS member, that's overwhelming eveidence, we will see, I will apologise if it doesn't and admit I'm wrong - so will you all do the same if I'm right.

Yes, we shall grovel and apologise to you and bow down to you and worship you as our weather god with the power to to foresee all outcomes. :rofl:

Edited by Seasonality

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Just Spoke to Borat and he had a comment regarding the below ukmo 144 chart 

IMG_3758.GIF

IMG_3759.JPG

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UKMO in 2nd place at t144 over the past month with ECM 1st

cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

I certainly wouldn't dismiss what UKMO is showing this afternoon

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2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I just hear a dissonance.

Fully agree, more runs needed, still way too much model disagreement.:D

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Just Spoke to Borat and he had a comment regarding the below ukmo 144 chart 

IMG_3758.GIF

IMG_3759.JPG

All silliness aside, it'll be good to see the fax charts issued following this output. Will they go with the raw output I wonder?

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at every single GEFS member, that's overwhelming eveidence, we will see, I will apologise if it doesn't and admit I'm wrong - so will you all do the same if I'm right.

 

saying-no22.jpg

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