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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is he trolling?

Seriously, how can anybody be "trolled" about the weather? it's the weather! we can't control it. More pertinently, how can anybody allow themselves to be "trolled" about the weather?  somebody taking a view other than "it's going to be 1962/63 all over again" is just taking a different view.

Weird, but I've seen a few instances lately where people are being accused of it which is totally daft.

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9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Is he trolling?

Nope, he is just posting a tweet referencing current ECM output and stating that it goes against other output. I wouldn't be too concerned about one bloke tweeting compared to the power of the EC monthly and the meto. I'd suggest that much worse goes on in here, @Summer Sun isn't doing anything disruptive.

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24 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Well, that's poor analysis at its most stark.

'block sets up' - it's the same feature we have now

'bathing in relative warmth' - the flow is gentle and over a UK that's been in the chiller for some time; any 'relative warmth' likely riding up over surface cold

'gloomy foggy days' - plenty of sign of drier continental air imports to keep bringing the sunshine back (though yes, not certain). In fact GFS is keen to retain a lot of sunshine this whole week... and even then it's still chilly or on the cold side.

 

Sorry mods, couldn't resist taking this down but... it is model analysis :D

You may be correct about the sunshine point, but I really don't see his analysis as unreasonable looking solely at that image. And certainly not trolling..! And btw that's not me either before someone suggests it :)

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10 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nope, he is just posting a tweet referencing current ECM output and stating that it goes against other output. I wouldn't be too concerned about one bloke tweeting compared to the power of the EC monthly and the meto. I'd suggest that much worse goes on in here, @Summer Sun isn't doing anything disruptive.

Right, but the setup he is showing does show colder than average temperatures for the time of year. I'm not really skilled enough to discuss what could happen after, but I don't see anything mild in that graph. 

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8 minutes ago, Strider said:

You may be correct about the sunshine point, but I really don't see his analysis as unreasonable looking solely at that image. And certainly not trolling..! And btw that's not me either before someone suggests it :)

But he is just plain wrong - most of nw Europe is v cold relative to the norm at day 10. What 'relative warmth'

 no one with a bsc in metoerology would tweet a day 10 op chart and analyse anyway so we are clear he isn't a pro!

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4 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Right, but the setup he is showing does show colder than average temperatures for the time of year. I'm not really skilled enough to discuss what could happen after, but I don't see anything mild in that graph. 

Agreed, maybe I should have elaborated more. The tweet posted by Summer Sun was written by someone who hasn't really got a good grasp of what is going on, especially compared to the experts.

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Once again you can see the issue with that parcel of shortwave energy which phases with the upstream troughing. It's that little kink and patch of green to the sw of Ireland at T138hrs on the GFS 06hrs run.

This phases and you then see how the energy then spills over the high, if the UKMO T168hrs output verifies then if you then add on the more amplified upstream flow developing after that point you're likely to see the high retrogress favourably.

 

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20 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nope, he is just posting a tweet referencing current ECM output and stating that it goes against other output. I wouldn't be too concerned about one bloke tweeting compared to the power of the EC monthly and the meto. I'd suggest that much worse goes on in here, @Summer Sun isn't doing anything disruptive.

Yes, this was no slight at SummerSun, but a query about the Tweeter.

26 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Seriously, how can anybody be "trolled" about the weather? it's the weather! we can't control it. More pertinently, how can anybody allow themselves to be "trolled" about the weather?  somebody taking a view other than "it's going to be 1962/63 all over again" is just taking a different view.

Weird, but I've seen a few instances lately where people are being accused of it which is totally daft.

Totally agree, but some people will do anything to get a "bite".

Anyway..........back to the models............

It looks like a short period of "less cold" weather may be likely looking at the output, but the signs appear to be good for an improved second half of December (if you like cold weather).

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06z following the 00z so far with the high sinking south allowing south westerlies to come in though not in a reliable time frame by any means

gfsnh-0-192.png?6gfs-1-192.png?6

gfsnh-0-216.png?6gfs-1-216.png?6

Edited by Summer Sun

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Agreed, maybe I should have elaborated more. The tweet posted by Summer Sun was written by someone who hasn't really got a good grasp of what is going on, especially compared to the experts.

But, he is a professional meteorologist according to the twitter account. Deja vu back to June ... experts jumped upon when not buying in to fairy tales.

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1 minute ago, Gael_Force said:

But, he is a professional meteorologist according to the twitter account. Deja vu back to June ... experts jumped upon when not buying in to fairy tales.

Doesn't matter. What he posted doesn't reflect what the models showed. As mentioned, maybe he is guessing as to what comes after and that's what his comments mean, but from the run he quotes, there isn't anything mild in it and quite the opposite, that region is comfortably below average at the time.

 

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2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

But, he is a professional meteorologist according to the twitter account. Deja vu back to June ... experts jumped upon when not buying in to fairy tales.

Not much of one if his analysis is anything to go by.

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certainly some "relative warmth" on offer from the 06z:

Rtavn19817.gif

 

fortunately it remains well outside the reliable and hopefully some changes earlier on will render this outcome unlikely.

 

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Plenty to ponder over with a possible turn back to cold. 

Some member starting the trending colder again.....

Into first week of the "meteorological winter"

MT2_London_ens.png

Edited by tight isobar

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But he is just plain wrong - most of nw Europe is v cold relative to the norm at day 10. What 'relative warmth'

 no one with a bsc in metoerology would tweet a day 10 op chart and analyse anyway so we are clear he isn't a pro!

To be honest I suspect he was comparing the chart to what it could've been i.e. a displaced high further north and west leading to an easterly. And I also would question weather it's really showing "very cold" temperatures for the UK dragging up a S/SW'rly..! Perhaps during night at a push. To me "very cold" would suggest about 10c below average.

But I do agree with general consensus that he really should've noticed it was amongst the warmest ensembles.

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A single run at 16 days is evidence of nothing in reality 

Well i said that it was a trend, so it's just not a single run it has been showing this for some days now, it is important to be aware of trends.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM

28th to 4th

Temperatures below average for England and Wales slightly above average for northern Scotland - drier than average UK wide

meTz20161128_0000+16800.pngmeRz20161128_0000+16800.png

5th to 11

Above average temps in the north and NI weaker signals elsewhere - rainfall remains below average

meTz20161128_0000+33600.pngmeRz20161128_0000+33600.png

12th to 18th weak signals across the UK

meTz20161128_0000+50400.pngmeRz20161128_0000+50400.png

Thanks Summer Sun. Interesting that in the past 4 weeks, the longer range charts have tended to become colder when they hit the shorter range.

Does the final chart suggest some sort of high pressure aligned NW to SE running through the UK i.e. southerly based flow running from north Africa towards the west of Ireland and northerly flow from the Arctic towards eastern Europe? 

Of course, clusters more important anyway. 

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For the time range, the 0z and 6z are remarkably similar. 

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in reply to the posts about tweets, let's not dwell too much on isolated tweets and instead comment on the models.....moving on :)

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

in reply to the posts about tweets, let's not dwell too much on isolated tweets and instead comment on the models.....moving on :)

Quite so, but just to put the boot in a bit more, what he posted didn't show mild :-)

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8 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Excuse me if I'm wrong but isn't that char showing surface -mslp just south of greenland with a resultant SW'rly flow over the UK ?

 

Did you read Matt's post. Have bolded relevant sections for you.

"Ignoring the MSLP isobars, for now, note the signal for higher than average pressure anoms to the north of the UK on the below chart for week 4, this is, essentially the EC monthly for 19th to the 25th Dec with also a signal for -ve MSLP anoms over Iberia which, in theory, would equate to a potential E or NE'ly flow."

 

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