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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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42 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Show me the last 240 chart that verified and you might have something.

this was the GFS 240 chart for today:

gfs-0-240.png

 

and the ECM:

ECM1-240.GIF?00

 

 

I know these are not a hemispheric view but they are not a million miles away in terms of what we've actually got I don't think:

 

gfs-0-6.png?0?0

 

But of course no charts actually "verify" in their entirety, especially at t+240.

Edited by Certain kind of fool

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It's entirely feasible to sink a strong Euro high in the space of a day or so if you see upstream amplification pulling the ridge west while the jet dives sharply south just west of the UK. GFS 18z tried that out.

The 'ballon blocking' approach remains on the cards too of course; our resilient High gradually gaining latitude overall (but not necessarily smoothly - more like a balloon in a turbulent airflow).

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Just now, Singularity said:

It's entirely feasible to sink a strong Euro high in the space of a day or so if you see upstream amplification pulling the ridge west while the jet dives sharply south just west of the UK. GFS 18z tried that out.

The 'ballon blocking' approach remains on the cards too of course; our resilient High gradually gaining latitude overall (but not necessarily smoothly - more like a balloon in a turbulent airflow).

Yes looking at the ECM T240 hrs the balloon might get drawn northwards, and as the PV splits we'd be likely to see deepish troughing to the west and another PV lobe to the ne. If the upstream flow amplifies then we could survive the changeover without a period of milder mobility and in effect most of the UK could remain on the cold side before troughing sets up closer to Scandi and digs south.

I'd much rather that than the sinking high.

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 then we could survive the changeover without a period of milder mobility 

I wouldn't mind a period of mild west to east mobility if its a prelude to an increasingly cold / blocked second half of december into early 2017..all to play for, unlike last year!:D

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44 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Looks generally in keeping with the script of last 2 days however. Whilst there's been fine balance over what degree of mobility asserts into early Dec, the currently favoured outcome remains for the high to slip SE; some degree of mobility taking over initially, into especially NW/N (possibly more rapidly nationwide: but 30% chance high remains dominant more widely for a while)... This followed by a more concerted period of limited mobility, with greater W-E frontal progression, but this phase looking temporary before blocked patterns re-establish around mid-month onwards. That remains the broad UKMO sequence into medium range.

EDIT ie in keeping with Matt's explanation above

If we do get the block to the North do the METO think this could be quite a prolonged set up, and potentially a noteworthy cold spell?

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In typical model style the GFS goes from most promising in terms of cold to pretty ghastly in the space of 12hrs.

The ECM although continuing with the bloated high is likely to keep the colder conditions for longer even as the upper temps warm up. The best solution today at T144hrs is the UKMO and on the Atlantic region we can see on the T168hrs that crucially has lower heights into Iberia, these differences are mainly due to shortwave energy either phasing or not with the upstream troughing. You can see on that UKMO below the separation of the troughing from that area of lower heights across Iberia and associated precip.

ukm.png

The ECM is an improvement on yesterdays 12hrs run because for the UK the flow remains from more central Europe rather than coming from north Africa in the latter stages.

 

 

Yes, Nick UKMO extended been showing this pictures for the last few days.I still think a low pressure circulation can develop over South Europe in the t168-240 forecast period and hold back any sinking of the high pressure over the Southern North Sea as opposed to GFS pressure pattern. As you indicate the UK flow remains continental, so will be cold at the surface. UK cold block needs to persist at this time of year and hold back any maritime flow in early December. Once we develop a more mobile type taking charge there will be no easy way back to cold, even though  longer term forecast charts indicate a return to blocking further north.

C

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5 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Worth noting that the GFS 00z op was an outlier compared to most ensembles.  We see a gradual dip, mid month, as shown nicely by this;

gefsens850London0.png

Of interest out of reliable but note the precip at the end of the run with a fair spread members going cold from the 13th onwards.

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1 minute ago, MattHugo said:

I won't say much, might jinx it, but now full set of EC Clusters are out there is a rather large area of high pressure setting up shop over Greenland and across northern polar regions in general towards the end of the run, which is 360hr so the 14th of December. There is a population of 23 members showing this, the other 28 simply show yet another blocking high developing over the UK but with this showing some northern development too.

Building blocks...

Matt.

Thank you @MattHugo. You are a gentleman and a scholar. So fear not model watchers! Looks like we are seeing developments well outside the publicly viewable current ECM output and right on the cusp of GFS output so interesting times ahead.

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6 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

I won't say much, might jinx it, but now full set of EC Clusters are out there is a rather large area of high pressure setting up shop over Greenland and across northern polar regions in general towards the end of the run, which is 360hr so the 14th of December. There is a population of 23 members showing this, the other 28 simply show yet another blocking high developing over the UK but with this showing some northern development too.

Building blocks...

Matt.

Sounds interesting Matt.

I know anything can happen between now and mid December and we could yet have a green and mild Christmas but assuming we do reach that point around mid month how do you see the pattern evolving?

Do you feel our current high will retrogress slowly in the direction of Greenland or can you see a short period of mobility after our high sinks away SE which will then presumably allow the pattern to amplify once again maybe from an Azores High being drawn North?

All very intriguing nonetheless.....

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ECM

28th to 4th

Temperatures below average for England and Wales slightly above average for northern Scotland - drier than average UK wide

meTz20161128_0000+16800.pngmeRz20161128_0000+16800.png

5th to 11

Above average temps in the north and NI weaker signals elsewhere - rainfall remains below average

meTz20161128_0000+33600.pngmeRz20161128_0000+33600.png

12th to 18th weak signals across the UK

meTz20161128_0000+50400.pngmeRz20161128_0000+50400.png

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This certainly goes against the likes of EC monthly and the met's thoughts

2733b583-05d6-46af-8c84-265f04aa9f01.png

ea8e5ae6-46b5-482c-a888-19ef0e5a69f9.png

baff3e39-1b9d-435b-bac6-54e4f2a58c66.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This certainly goes against the likes of EC monthly and the met's thoughts

2733b583-05d6-46af-8c84-265f04aa9f01.png

ea8e5ae6-46b5-482c-a888-19ef0e5a69f9.png

baff3e39-1b9d-435b-bac6-54e4f2a58c66.png

Those comments are referring to the chart posted surley which is dated the 9/12/16. Those comments are surely about that run in isolation. I think it's pretty clear.

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This certainly goes against the likes of EC monthly and the met's thoughts

2733b583-05d6-46af-8c84-265f04aa9f01.png

ea8e5ae6-46b5-482c-a888-19ef0e5a69f9.png

baff3e39-1b9d-435b-bac6-54e4f2a58c66.png

Its hard to see that pattern shifting ??? really

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19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

This certainly goes against the likes of EC monthly and the met's thoughts

2733b583-05d6-46af-8c84-265f04aa9f01.png

ea8e5ae6-46b5-482c-a888-19ef0e5a69f9.png

baff3e39-1b9d-435b-bac6-54e4f2a58c66.png

Is he trolling?

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The trend for a stronger jet stream and positive NAO during middle of december continues, just hope that the last 7-10 days before christmas will be dominated by dry and frosty days, otherwise it will be the 4th green christmas in a row

Nu tar jag dig sa tröllet.png

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