Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, you're wrong. 

The posts are there to see in the archive from 2 maybe 3 weeks back. We were originally set to see HP to the N with a broad trough stretched from Scandi down towards UK with the jet running through France 1st week of December. It's there in the archive for all to see. Pretty sure it was Ian F or Blue which posted this. 

I'm not discounting such an evolution for Christmas week...but I'm not holding my breath either.

In all fairness cc you do have a point. And let's be honest, we all remember That ECM and it certainly wasn't 4 weeks out lol. But that aside, I still think there is too much going in our favour to miss out all together this winter. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

To be truthful, the current set up does have a heck of a lot of high pressure anomaly to the North West, so the EC was actually correct for the current time.

What was lacking was signal for below average mslp + 500gph anomalies to the South of the UK, with just bland old high pressure to the North, then we set up the current anticyclonic set up.

 

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And that's my point of contention....and is what makes all the difference to the weather that we are to experience over the next 10 days or so. The LP anomalys that were shown in the longer range output to our S have not materialised. It leaves us marooned with a mid lat HP system which is going nowhere fast and little to no CAA into the UK.

[nick sussex]

Give Crewe Cold a break. Regardless of how strong a signal there is for cold later in December this doesn't mean its nailed on or people should rush out to get the full sledge gear!

The atmosphere is fluid its not a set thing, todays strong signal is just that. The old timers in here have seen this all before and so its understandable that we're being a little cautious because nothing is ever certain in the world of weather modelling.

We hope for the best but I have the Prozac ordering line on speed dial just in case!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just to embelish the point...this from 14th Nov

Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.

Second week of December starts 7th Dec...we're now looking at Christmas week. Let's not rewrite history here folks.

 

Edited November 28, 2016 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

And that's my point of contention....and is what makes all the difference to the weather that we are to experience over the next 10 days or so. The LP anomalys that were shown in the longer range output to our S have not materialised. It leaves us marooned with a mid lat HP system which is going nowhere fast and little to no CAA into the UK.

You are right that the euro low anomolys have failed to verify for early December but they never came with low enough uppers for snow so the actual cold block turns out to be better for wintry conditions than the failed troughing which would have only delivered snow on northern hills and cold rain elsewhere.

the period post mid month has always been when lower uppers were shown - from what Stewart and ian have posted, it appears we have some consistency and ian had already said this ties in with glosea. 

As you, I am mostly concerned with how the high euro uppers are bled away. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I still think there is too much going in our favour to miss out all together this winter. 

Absolutely agree, the seasonal models this time last year were diabolical in terms of any cold but things look much better now! I can't remember such a fun evening on here but I suspect there will be plenty more like it and better during the winter ahead.

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I disagree with you fully. I've been watching all the background signals, not the posts on this forum. I'm not a cold ramper by the way, before you accuse me of that.

I've always thought the 2nd half of Dec would see a sharp cooling of our air temps.

crewe is correct in terms of 'opportunity'

 The background signals otherwise culminating in the 60N zonal mean was projected to go into negative territory on the 1st December which coincidentally is a record in the ERA data series-

so the 'opportunity' was certainly available- however in the same context as a result of the zonal mean being so low all the cold was locked into Russia due to the AO which ironically meant that whilst there was an opportunity the reality was that the seasonal wavelengths & ability to tap a long fetch easterly was unlikely -

I dont think many people have actually really put there hat in terms of forecasting deep cold -but for the record the background signals did indicate it was possible -

S

 

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Just to embelish the point...this from 14th Nov

Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.

 

Also, I hope you didn't take it as a personal attack, certainly not meant that way... I rarely look at this thread for long term guidance, I usually follow the strat thread and what my own hunch from the understanding I've gained from GP, SM, Tamara etc etc. It's been solid agreement that we will have HLB from mid Dec onward. Time will tell, but today was a telling stamp on the card.

[Snowman.]

Meanwhile in the on the pub run.

It heard your calls for the UK high and gave us our westerlies back.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Give Crewe Cold a break. Regardless of how strong a signal there is for cold later in December this doesn't mean its nailed on or people should rush out to get the full sledge gear!

The atmosphere is fluid its not a set thing, todays strong signal is just that. The old timers in here have seen this all before and so its understandable that we're being a little cautious because nothing is ever certain in the world of weather modelling.

We hope for the best but I have the Prozac ordering line on speed dial just in case!

I think it was more to do with the fact that he said cold is always at week 4. When in fact it's cold now and likely to be for the next week  ok not snowmaggedon  but certainly below average  which compared to most winters is good. I just wonder if the e c m and the met had been predicting south westerlies  for the Christmas period how many would be saying its nailed on ?   Let's just enjoy the next week or so of seasonal weather and see what happens 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Meanwhile in the on the pub run.

It heard your calls for the UK high and gave us our westerlies back.

FI but yeah i agree, there will be some milder blips, but overall can see Dec being much colder than average!

[Ravelin]

Well, sorry to interrupt the collective euphoria (which I cautiously share)with regards to the impending White Xmas et all, but there's actually been a GFS run coming out. It's one run, but neatly illustrates what I was saying earlier about the UK high and it's longevity i.e whether it'll still be there by day 10. On the 18z at t240 it's gone...

Probably come back on the next run but nothing is ever a certainty.

Edit: Personally like this FI.

  

Edited November 28, 2016 by Ravelin

[SMU]

So once again the NAVGEM continues to offer the most 'elevated' high- & whilst this isnt the market leader in models it has done well in the consistency stakes as well as the fact its generally shown the most 'undercutting' V the rest-

Either way its of no surprise that the 180 chart offers the most 'elevated' high- centering towards Iceland & the cold over the continent getting deeper & edging west - thats almost best case scenario in this situation....

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Meanwhile in the on the pub run.

It heard your calls for the UK high and gave us our westerlies back.

not for long.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Also, I hope you didn't take it as a personal attack, certainly not meant that way... I rarely look at this thread for long term guidance, I usually follow the strat thread and what my own hunch from the understanding I've gained from GP, SM, Tamara etc etc. It's been solid agreement that we will have HLB from mid Dec onward. Time will tell, but today was a telling stamp on the card.

That's fair enough and fair play...but anyone hanging their hat on the ECM long ranger is setting themselves up for disappointment given what I've seen of its performance thus far (and yes I accept it's a bespoke model to which people pay a heft price for access to) especially in respect to implications over conditions around the UK. No model is infallible, especially when we're talking upwards of 3 weeks into the future.

Troughing to our S (or E) for that matter is a fairly significant ingredient to the UK getting some deep cold.

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

not for long.

N to NE..

  

 

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Just to embelish the point...this from 14th Nov

Worth adding that latest EC Monthly again raises GPH/MSLP to our NW with mean N'ly flow as we switch into Dec. Interestingly it then also develops (2nd week Dec) quite marked -ve GPH anomaly from Scandinavia to the UK, coupled to equally marked -ve MSLP across S UK and directly eastwards into adjacent NW Europe, with attendant appearance of +ve PPN anomalies by that stage. Fascinating times indeed.

Second week of December starts 7th Dec...we're now looking at Christmas week. Let's not rewrite history here folks.

 

As with all forecasts they can change. 

[snowbunting]

The pub run here to tease us again...!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z must have noticed the party mood in here and delivers backloaded cold and snow..what an evening, I better get used to it

Edited November 28, 2016 by Frosty.

[damianslaw]

Certainly a busy evening in this thread tonight - busiest since last February I suspect, and very good reading in the main.

Back to the models, the theme and trend today is one of a holding pattern, with little sign of heights sinking south anytime in the foreseeable, enabling very cold uppers to move down across eastern europe, indeed there are increasing signals suggesting central core of heights building slightly north/northeast if anything, which would have the effect of enabling lower heights to develop in time over southern europe, which would then enable heights to firmly anchor to a more northerly home, exposing the UK to much colder uppers in time.

What is quite noteworthy is how dry things are going to be, in what is traditionally the wettest period of the year, especially here, gosh you couldn't have an outlook more different to this time last year - its startlingly different in all respects, what a flip. Our weather is quite extraordinary in its variety how it can be very different from one year to the next - I've commented before on how we have seen lengthy very wet periods quickly cancelled out by very dry conditions. Alas that appears to be happening now, after the deluge of late 2015.

The key force at the moment is the aluetian ridge, all models show this ridging northwards, and a polar profile ripe for cold air advection our way as we move through December.

[knocker]

Streuth nurse!!

I turn my back for two hours and they are all out of bed again. Still with all these ramps around at least building blocks are superfluous.

[Scandinavian High.]

44 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

EC Monthly consistent with Glosea and it's last runs. Strong resurgence of +ve MSLP/GPH anomalies north of UK further into Dec, especially Xmas week, with marked -ve temp anomalies developing across adjacent contiguous Europe as N'ly flow veers to mean easterly late Dec. Good to see both suites in such firm agreement, despite inherent issues of confidence at such lead time.

Thank you Ian for that  information very interesting .

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Streuth nurse!!

I turn my back for two hours and they are all out of bed again. Still with all these ramps around at least building blocks are superfluous.

That post made me LOL! Your still an evil mild ramper tho....

[bluearmy]

Crewe, it's going to be a cold start to winter - 'exactly what did you expect to see from the window of a Torquay hotel room! Hordes of wildebeest etc etc' 

 

If you chose to interpret a three week ahead broad background as meaning widespread snowfall then more fool you. As steve posted, we were in the raffle but Eastern Europe has won first prize and we have to make do with the coldest end to November since 2010 and  the coldest first third dec for quite a few years too. 

[bobbydog]

52 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

Week 4 will always be... 4 weeks away...