Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[fergieweather 27,792]

1 minute ago, Ramp said:

I tried the caution approach until lower down the page where GP was ramping a white Christmas

Nobody (sensible) should be automatically equating the signals with snowmageddon (or lack of snow for that matter). The broad pointers are to a cold set-up. That is very clear. Issues re snow are a matter for much shorter lead times.

[CreweCold 18,609]

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

[Jon Snow 67,229]

2 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I tried the caution approach until lower down the page where GP was ramping a white Christmas

The forum is buzzing tonight..love this time of year and especially with the very promising seasonal models hinting at an increasingly cold / blocked December..let the good times roll

[karlos1983 21,597]

You can all say what you want cold haters, I couldn't give a Brad Pitt, GP and Tamara ramps, glosea EC monthly, Ian F, what more do you want. A knocker ramp and we are home and snowed in 

bring it on

Edited November 28, 2016 by karlos1983

[Connor Bailey Degnan 648]

Wow what a feeling tonight, got that buzz inside, is it finally coming, it looks like it :DDDDD

[BARRY 427]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Nobody (sensible) should be automatically equating the signals with snowmageddon (or lack of snow for that matter). The broad pointers are to a cold set-up. That is very clear. Issues re snow are a matter for much shorter lead times.

would be nice to write that we had an ice day

 

[bluearmy 35,340]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

W/c 19/12 consistently looked the start of proper cold on recent runs

post mid month the transition from euro based ridge to euro low 

[Banbury 2,877]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Nobody (sensible) should be automatically equating the signals with snowmageddon (or lack of snow for that matter). The broad pointers are to a cold set-up. That is very clear. Issues re snow are a matter for much shorter lead times.

Your far to sensible for this place Ian

But your comments are very much appreciated mild or cold.

[Sweatyman 619]

What's latest with 18z

[Shaftesbury Snow 209]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Nobody (sensible) should be automatically equating the signals with snowmageddon (or lack of snow for that matter). The broad pointers are to a cold set-up. That is very clear. Issues re snow are a matter for much shorter lead times.

Absolutely, no doubt there will be snow in places however the wind direction will be key as to where will be affected, furthermore easterly winds can in fact be very dry

[Rocheydub 2,224]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

Good lord. The over riding signals have always been for mid to late December. We're still in Autumn. Take a chill pill.

Back to the models, there are nuances in the later runs that suggest we may be edging towards a cold/very cold set up. Will it snow in my back yard?? I'll tell you in 3 weeks!

[bluearmy 35,340]

14 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Right just been busy settling down my disabled son.... i come back to 30+ replies thinking this looks good... and yes most of the them seem positive and so does the model output to go with them.... i then see the bbc forecast for the week ahead showing the High drifting off southeast into Europe... have they missed something?? because we have Ian F and GP dropping clues to make a cold and snow lover cry with happiness then the bbc go and wee all over the fire....

Not sure the ridge sinking se later next week has much affect on the onset of winter - likely it comes back North again after the brief Atlantic incursion (if that verifies at all) 

[Ice Day 4,127]

Ruddy Nora, it's been an absolute hoot on here this evening.  If the GFS can produce some FI shenanigans, I fear a server crash coming on!

Really good updates from Fergie and GP and even a cheeky ramp from Tamara.  Of course we know that nothing is nailed 3 to 4 weeks out, but it's nice to be able to be in with a chance of a snowy period.  Reasons to be cheerful make no mistake.

[fergieweather 27,792]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

??????? Eh?   The next 7 to poss more days are signalled as below average!! The next 2 nights look firmly set to be coldest of this autumn!! I suspect there's people so obsessed with snow forecasts that they're not seeing wood for the trees. No cold: no snow. And as I posted above, usual suspects in media aside, nobody sensible has given a snow prognosis 10+ days ahead... because the forecasting science to do so with any reliability doesn't exist. 

Honestly, compared to some recent winters(!), I fail to see anything in longer range models to make cold lovers moan. 

Edited November 28, 2016 by fergieweather

[northwestsnow 14,769]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

??????? Eh?   The next 7 to poss more days are signalled as below average!! The next 2 nights look firmly set to be coldest of this autumn!! I suspect there's people so obsessed with snow forecasts that they're not seeing wood for the trees. No cold: no snow. And as I posted above, usual suspects in media aside, nobody sensible has given a snow prognosis 10+ days ahead... because the forecasting science to do so with any reliably doesn't exist. 

Honestly, compared to some recent winters(!), I fail to see anything in longer range models to make cold lovers moan. 

The voice of sanity!

[doghouse 264]

If people can't feel their half empty glasses being suffiently chilled in light of some posts this evening then it beggars belief

[Barry Reynolds 68]

15 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

EC Monthly consistent with Glosea and it's last runs. Strong resurgence of +ve MSLP/GPH anomalies north of UK further into Dec, especially Xmas week, with marked -ve temp anomalies developing across adjacent contiguous Europe as N'ly flow veers to mean easterly late Dec. Good to see both suites in such firm agreement, despite inherent issues of confidence at such lead time.

Am I dreaming? Good agreement between suites, a mean Easterly flow, heights to our North, and Christmas week. How often are those 4 things together in one paragraph? Can't get better than that at this range.

Edited November 28, 2016 by Barry Reynolds
Spelling

[CreweCold 18,609]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Good lord. The over riding signals have always been for mid to late December. We're still in Autumn. Take a chill pill.

Back to the models, there are nuances in the later runs that suggest we may be edging towards a cold/very cold set up. Will it snow in my back yard?? I'll tell you in 3 weeks!

No, you're wrong. 

The posts are there to see in the archive from 2 maybe 3 weeks back. We were originally set to see HP to the N with a broad trough stretched from Scandi down towards UK with the jet running through France 1st week of December. It's there in the archive for all to see. Pretty sure it was Ian F or Blue which posted this. 

I'm not discounting such an evolution for Christmas week...but I'm not holding my breath either.

[mpkio2 807]

Guess who's back and full of optimism?!

Well, it's been almost a week since my last post (Anaylsis of the models,) and I must say, I am very impressed in how the pattern has evolved and how the models have performed, especially the ECM/UKMO.

Below is the t144 for GFS/ECM/UKMO 12z run on the 22nd November 2016:

GFS 12z t144:
:

ECM 12z t144:

UKMO 12z t144:

And this is whre we are now:

GFS 12z t0 (Today - 28th November 2016):

As you can see, the models had a preety fair idea of how the NH Pattern will pan out, especially UKMO/ECM. The overall pattern is there (Albeit, We have lower height rises around Greenland, much more less so than what was being modelled - Too much of Atlantic block on GFS!). I've been fairly quiet, knowing (As I suggested a week ago,) that end of Nov (28th-30th) was where the models were going to fly off the oinment and do their own thing. Why? It's the period where we are in right now where energy is coming off USA and, subsequiently, affecting the pattern around us. As per @nick sussex, @Tamara and @Steve Murr, just to name a few, latest thoughts, it all ties in with how much trough disruption is occuring around this period and how the models react to it and structure it in its frames - get enough energy S/E under the block and it sustains the block and improves chances of under-cut. This is why I believed FL was around this period becuase all models agreed up until this point at that time.

I also believe that the models now have another some-what cross-model-agreement up until where FL currently is, though I must stress that with the energy coming off the USA right now, any small chnage in the flow can ulter and chnage the overall patern in the run - Butterfly effect and all that! - If the model has the pattern wrong near the beginning, the rest of it will be wrong, as per a few previous runs FL has illustrated over the past week (That GFS 06z run on the 24th November 2016 for example!!!!)

Below is the t144 for GFS/ECM/UKMO 12z run for today (28th November 2016):

GFS 12z t144:

ECM 12z t144:

UKMO 12z t144:

All show a holding UK high, low off Newfowland, Alutein High Pressure, and an absolutly unhealthy looking PV, ripe for a trop split, with wave attackes on three sides!!!

The caveat in all of this is that the goings on with the energy of USA and goings on in thje atmosphere (+AMM on rise, GLAMM heading up, low zonal winds, small warmings in strat, etc,) might even chnage whats happening in the shorter term. Noticed by many on here, each run is building the UK high further north and showing some real cold uppers over Europe (Which I also aluuded to last week,) and lower temps over the Uk. Here are tonights and tom nights temps:

Yup, I'm very happy with how things are procedding into beg Dec. Also re Met Office forecast, I believe there forecast for short term might change as we enter Dec (With possible of rain and mild,), IF the pattern continues to progress in a way which holds the UK hught and brings in SE/E winds off from Europe. However, they are also using other modles and have other data, so perhaps they are seeing something that we aren't currently. Maybe future runs with show this. Time will tell.

I know I'll probably be sounding like a broken record, and many have already said this, but....

Pateince, my friends.

As illustrated over the week, a FL t384 is not the be-end all of everything, and doesn't mean that "Winter is over". Sit back, see what all the models are doing, look for trends, keep a well balanced-view.

Also, at least we don't have this:

Again, exspect some volitile inter-run modelling from.....the models.

It might all fall apart, of course. Anything is possible with the weather!

We are seeing some very good sypnoptics this winter (Nothing like the previous recent ones!!!), so its only a matter a time when we roll a 6 with the dice!

Edited November 29, 2016 by mpkio2

[Bullseye 515]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

Not sure I agree with that. GP, Tamara, Fergie & few more have been saying for past 10 days or more for us to look for 2nd week of December onwards as key and potentially real sign of winter arriving in this part of the world. Giving their knowledge and insight they have been providing us with on where we stand regarding that timeframe and on top of this the seasonal models all on same page regarding mid-Dec I see things going much to plan. If it doesn't materialise as expected then we still have Jan/Feb and arguably first half of March. So I would say it would be front loaded winter if all goes as expected. 

[CreweCold 18,609]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

??????? Eh?   The next 7 to poss more days are signalled as below average!! The next 2 nights look firmly set to be coldest of this autumn!! I suspect there's people so obsessed with snow forecasts that they're not seeing wood for the trees. No cold: no snow. And as I posted above, usual suspects in media aside, nobody sensible has given a snow prognosis 10+ days ahead... because the forecasting science to do so with any reliably doesn't exist. 

Honestly, compared to some recent winters(!), I fail to see anything in longer range models to make cold lovers moan. 

Ian, I'm not saying there isn't surface cold knocking about...but me and you both know there is a big difference between a mid latitude feature with warmish uppers and a high latitude blocking feature with attendant snow risk. 

I don't know why people are getting so up in arms. 

[Rocheydub 2,224]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

No, you're wrong. 

The posts are there to see in the archive from 2 maybe 3 weeks back. We were originally set to see HP to the N with a broad trough stretched from Scandi down towards UK with the jet running through France 1st week of December. It's there in the archive for all to see. Pretty sure it was Ian F or Blue which posted this. 

I'm not discounting such an evolution for Christmas week...but I'm not holding my breath either.

I disagree with you fully. I've been watching all the background signals, not the posts on this forum. I'm not a cold ramper by the way, before you accuse me of that.

I've always thought the 2nd half of Dec would see a sharp cooling of our air temps.

[Hotspur61 955]

What an evening-a cold ramp by Tamara, positive news from IF re cold temps possibly setting in from mid december,GP talking of odds on a white xmas in Norwich-Its all going on tonight lol.Just need a SM Sausage for a Full House now.I think Models are pretty much settled for next 7 days for dry frosty weather at times with some severe frosts tonight and tomorrow.After that things could start to become very interesting but before we carried away remember it is the uk we are talking about and i will be very interested at looking at the Models this time next week to see what Mother nature has in store for us.

A good positive vibe in here and it would be fab if we could have a cold nationwide spell with some of the white stuff falling in the near future that would bring this forum into meltdown

[Glacier Point 13,439]

Actually, record of EC weeklies has been broadly trended +ve height anomaly to the west / north-west for first week of Dec and an inferred -ve temperature signal. That looks pretty much what we're going to land.

[January Snowstorm 1,184]

Ian, I remember the met were v confident when 2010 happened though no more than of late. While it's impossible to be certain so far out has this got the potential to be a 2010 type event?