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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

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1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Nobody (sensible) should be automatically equating the signals with snowmageddon (or lack of snow for that matter). The broad pointers are to a cold set-up. That is very clear. Issues re snow are a matter for much shorter lead times.

would be nice to write that we had an ice day

 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

W/c 19/12 consistently looked the start of proper cold on recent runs

post mid month the transition from euro based ridge to euro low 

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3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Nobody (sensible) should be automatically equating the signals with snowmageddon (or lack of snow for that matter). The broad pointers are to a cold set-up. That is very clear. Issues re snow are a matter for much shorter lead times.

Absolutely, no doubt there will be snow in places however the wind direction will be key as to where will be affected, furthermore easterly winds can in fact be very dry

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14 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Right just been busy settling down my disabled son.... i come back to 30+ replies thinking this looks good... and yes most of the them seem positive and so does the model output to go with them.... i then see the bbc forecast for the week ahead showing the High drifting off southeast into Europe... have they missed something?? because we have Ian F and GP dropping clues to make a cold and snow lover cry with happiness then the bbc go and wee all over the fire....

Not sure the ridge sinking se later next week has much affect on the onset of winter - likely it comes back North again after the brief Atlantic incursion (if that verifies at all) 

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Ruddy Nora, it's been an absolute hoot on here this evening.  If the GFS can produce some FI shenanigans, I fear a server crash coming on!

Really good updates from Fergie and GP and even a cheeky ramp from Tamara.  Of course we know that nothing is nailed 3 to 4 weeks out, but it's nice to be able to be in with a chance of a snowy period.  Reasons to be cheerful make no mistake.

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2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Good lord. The over riding signals have always been for mid to late December. We're still in Autumn. Take a chill pill.

Back to the models, there are nuances in the later runs that suggest we may be edging towards a cold/very cold set up. Will it snow in my back yard?? I'll tell you in 3 weeks!

No, you're wrong. 

The posts are there to see in the archive from 2 maybe 3 weeks back. We were originally set to see HP to the N with a broad trough stretched from Scandi down towards UK with the jet running through France 1st week of December. It's there in the archive for all to see. Pretty sure it was Ian F or Blue which posted this. 

I'm not discounting such an evolution for Christmas week...but I'm not holding my breath either.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

Not sure I agree with that. GP, Tamara, Fergie & few more have been saying for past 10 days or more for us to look for 2nd week of December onwards as key and potentially real sign of winter arriving in this part of the world. Giving their knowledge and insight they have been providing us with on where we stand regarding that timeframe and on top of this the seasonal models all on same page regarding mid-Dec I see things going much to plan. If it doesn't materialise as expected then we still have Jan/Feb and arguably first half of March. So I would say it would be front loaded winter if all goes as expected. 

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3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

??????? Eh?   The next 7 to poss more days are signalled as below average!! The next 2 nights look firmly set to be coldest of this autumn!! I suspect there's people so obsessed with snow forecasts that they're not seeing wood for the trees. No cold: no snow. And as I posted above, usual suspects in media aside, nobody sensible has given a snow prognosis 10+ days ahead... because the forecasting science to do so with any reliably doesn't exist. 

Honestly, compared to some recent winters(!), I fail to see anything in longer range models to make cold lovers moan. 

Ian, I'm not saying there isn't surface cold knocking about...but me and you both know there is a big difference between a mid latitude feature with warmish uppers and a high latitude blocking feature with attendant snow risk. 

I don't know why people are getting so up in arms. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

No, you're wrong. 

The posts are there to see in the archive from 2 maybe 3 weeks back. We were originally set to see HP to the N with a broad trough stretched from Scandi down towards UK with the jet running through France 1st week of December. It's there in the archive for all to see. Pretty sure it was Ian F or Blue which posted this. 

I'm not discounting such an evolution for Christmas week...but I'm not holding my breath either.

I disagree with you fully. I've been watching all the background signals, not the posts on this forum. I'm not a cold ramper by the way, before you accuse me of that.

I've always thought the 2nd half of Dec would see a sharp cooling of our air temps.

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What an evening-a cold ramp by Tamara, positive news from IF re cold temps possibly setting in from mid december,GP talking of odds on a white xmas in Norwich-Its all going on tonight lol.Just need a SM Sausage for a Full House now.I think Models are pretty much settled for next 7 days for dry frosty weather at times with some severe frosts tonight and tomorrow.After that things could start to become very interesting but before we carried away remember it is the uk we are talking about and i will be very interested at looking at the Models this time next week to see what Mother nature has in store for us.

A good positive vibe in here and it would be fab if we could have a cold nationwide spell with some of the white stuff falling in the near future that would bring this forum into meltdown:cold::yahoo:

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Ian, I remember the met were v confident when 2010 happened though no more than of late. While it's impossible to be certain so far out has this got the potential to be a 2010 type event?

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