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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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The 12z eps offer more of the same.  If anything, the high anomoly edges further north compared to previous runs and is slightly more accentuated.  the high anomoly this side of the NH is very large and generally I would say that it can't occupy such a wide area. The vortex splits late on offering continuity and broad agreement with the GEFS. still no sign of low anomolys getting anywhere to our south. Hopefully the 46 dayer will provide that week 3 onwards !!

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The anomalies are still cooking with gas this evening

Troughs over the Arctic. eastern Russia and eastern Europe.Strong Aleutian ridging. negative anomaly over  the southern States and varying degrees of amplification in the Atlantic vis the two main players, the trough in the west and the high pressure in the east. The ecm is more amplified even going as far as having an enclosed HP circulation so although the percentage play is without a doubt for dry/cold weather the detail regarding this will need to await the det runs nearer the time as boundary layer conditions are rather dependent on a number of variables yet to be more precisely determined.

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

No major changes within the 10-15 time frame except to note the continuing strength of the Aleutian ridge and a suggestion of some retrogression in the latter stages of the EPS. Still looking at 850mb temps a little above average and we aren't looking at dodgy boundary layer conditions as the HP will be centred to the SW

814day.03.gifgefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.png

Edited by knocker

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9 minutes ago, Ramp said:

 many a good snow event follows a cold dry period.

I've experienced loads of cold, dry periods in Winters past with no snow events following. Caution.

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21 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Because its sods law! lol The upstream pattern has very good model agreement and hence things will only change slowly however within that theres still the possibility to cut some energy under the block.

 

As often I accept it might seem to occur, I don't accept 'sods law' as an acceptable scientific explanation. :) Anyway, so I know I picked charts at random and they didn't necessarily therefore have support, but if you looked at the ECM and GFS charts I happened to post from 10 days ago they were very similar, showing heights to our East, a trough over the UK and pretty much nothing over the US/Canada. On the face of it there was model agreement, of sorts.

 

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

But we had a bust on the eps this time last week re the upcoming upper ridge being modelled as an upper trough! to get two busts in two weeks on the eps re the 8/12 day period would indeed be fairly unprecedented. 

Again, there's no scientific reason that one recent 'bust' means it can't happen again. Maybe the current 'unusual' situation means that its more likely than normal to happen twice in a short space of time, we just don't know.

Personally I think the high will be with us for a week or so. Ten days though I'm not so sure about and I can't understand why so many people seem so convinced that it'll last that long, and beyond. Well other than that they desire snow so much they think that anything that is likely to prevent their desired outcome is 'nailed on' just to frustrate their desires.

Only one way we're ever going to find out, wait 10 days. OK, wait 7 days as if it's still showing then I'll concede.

 

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8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I've experienced loads of cold, dry periods in Winters past with no snow events following. Caution.

Me too!

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one of these days the CFS will be right a christmas day present for us all it has shown this type of setup for  a few runs now for mid month maybe its starting to pickup the signal from the longer term euro models i hope so

cfs-0-642.png

cfs-0-678.png

Edited by igloo

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I'm just hoping the EC monthly is showing the high head North mid month and beyond, if so I really think this weeks ENS run by run will just start trending one way - and it ain't North like the high pressure.

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Good Monday Evening. At 120hrs Both ecm and gfs  show high pressure in charge , it only takes a tweet in the synoptics to delver some serious cold

LOREN.png

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11 minutes ago, igloo said:

one of these days the CFS will be right a christmas day present for us all it has shown this type of setup for  a few runs now for mid month maybe its starting to pickup the signal from the longer term euro models i hope so

cfs-0-642.png

cfs-0-678.png

Looks rather like the Epic January 1987:cold:

CFSR_1_1987011318_2.png

CFSR_1_1987011318_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Up to +96 on the GFS and there seems to be a slight shift westwards of the Atlantic energy on this run. Also more of a negative tilt so this is hopefully a good sign....

Edited by Kieran

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

EC week 4, let's just say, what price a white christmas ?

There's 25 quid available on the betfair exchange on white Christmas London at odds of 4.5, you can request more though and hope someone matches you, would be looking for 8's myself, 10's+ usually but lower this time due to the quiet atlantic.

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Right just been busy settling down my disabled son.... i come back to 30+ replies thinking this looks good... and yes most of the them seem positive and so does the model output to go with them.... i then see the bbc forecast for the week ahead showing the High drifting off southeast into Europe... have they missed something?? because we have Ian F and GP dropping clues to make a cold and snow lover cry with happiness then the bbc go and wee all over the fire....

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6 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC week 4, let's just say, what price a white christmas ?

Genuine -ve temp signal there at that range is stark. Week 3 continues the theme as discussed, cross polar ridging.

Sounds like perfect timing 

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3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC week 4, let's just say, what price a white christmas ?

Consistent signal,back of the net!!

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Of course all this chat of a colder than average Dec and Jan could just mean conditions like tonight and tomorrow with HP firmly stuck over us, Getting the HP in our location is one thing moving it off to an A1 position is another ball game all together

Edited by Banbury

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Interesting snippet from Dr Cohen on Twitter.

"Still working on the blog but as a teaser here is a temperature forecast in today's post- nice example of warm #Arctic / #cold continents."

CyYbWKqWEAAqVOT-2.jpg

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