Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[fergieweather]

18 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

ECMWF Seasonal just released: extensive +ve GPH/MSLP to N/NW/NE of UK through its D-J-F suite. Consistent signal with last run.

Sorry, let me just add meat to bones: above statement pertinent for DJF (early winter) whereas +ve MSLP anomalies drift to W/SW for JFM. Thus indicative of higher chance colder 1st half winter, with change into 2nd half, in keeping with UKMO assessment. A winter of 2 halves...

[northwestsnow]

26 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

ECMWF Seasonal just released: extensive +ve GPH/MSLP to N/NW/NE of UK through its D-J-F suite. Consistent signal with last run.

Ohhhhhhhh Fergie you dont half know how to make a weathergeek drooooooooooooool

On a serious note thats a delicious update, ECM singing from a similar hymn sheet to glosea perhaps...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

 

[Hocus Pocus]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Weatherbell I have no problems with, but I just find Joe B himself tends to be a bit over the top and his views on climate change are tin foil hat territory, so I just can't take him seriously anymore. Last year he was pitching a "Nasty winter shaping up for Europe" "especially the UK" in terms of cold and we know where that went. There are more examples that I recall that I'd dig up if I had the time but there you go. Just to be clear again, not casting any aspersions on Westherbell, I just don't trust Big Joe B.

He's probably forgotten more than you'll ever come to understand though, and please leave that awful politicalised subject out of here thank you.

With regards to the EC seasonal does that imply heights over Scandinavia retrogressing  towards Greenland  before the PV ramps up a notch and dislodges heights over our side of the pole  as the winter progresses?

[Ali1977]

25 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry, let me just add meat to bones: above statement pertinent for DJF (early winter) whereas +ve MSLP anomalies drift to W/SW for JFM. Thus indicative of higher chance colder 1st half winter, with change into 2nd half, in keeping with UKMO assessment. A winter of 2 halves...

Still sounds good, and the fact it is earlier Winter the models are seeing NH blocking that surely has more chance of verifying than if the signal was for late winter - and by Feb being later winter this is still subject to change. Hopefully the charts showing promise in FI this morning are starting to get to grips with the situation!! 

[northwestsnow]

I suppose the big question is what is driving these cold updates from EC/Glosea?

Are these models seeing a SSW?

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I suppose the big question is what is driving these cold updates from EC/Glosea?

Are these models seeing a SSW?

Was tinking that myself, GFS not as aggressive with this anymore, wondering whether ECMWF seasonal is spotting one in early December, mind you I think we could get away withouout a full on SSW as long as the vortex  is displaced towards the Siberian sector slightly, although GP thinks wave 2 activity is a possibility.

[Gael_Force]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Was tinking that myself, GFS not as aggressive with this anymore, wondering whether ECMWF seasonal is spotting one in early December, mind you I think we could get away withouout a full on SSW as long as the vortex  is displaced towards the Siberian sector slightly, although GP thinks wave 2 activity is a possibility.

The CFS has consistenly been showing the vortex displaced to the Siberian side right through to January. It only returns to central Arctic location in February

.  

Edited November 8, 2016 by Gael_Force

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The CFS has consistenly been showing the vortex displaced to the Siberian side right through to January. I only returns to central Arctic location in February

.  

Id like to see it a bit further away from the pole although I take it that's an ensemble mean so not too bad.

 

EDIT : ive seen now its 12 runs so similar thing really.

Edited November 8, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Hocus Pocus]

Even though the EC seasonal look very good on paper is there still a chance we could end up with a west based -NAO?

[Gael_Force]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Id like to see it a bit further away from the pole although I take it that's an ensemble mean so not too bad.

Yes, a mean of the CFS ensembles and also a running 7day mean as well.

Correction: what Isaid is true for the weekly forecast but that is not showing yet.

It's an average of last 12 runs so only 3 days.

 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Gael_Force

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Hocus Pocus said:

Even though the EC seasonal look very good on paper is there still a chance we could end up with a west based -NAO?

I suppose theres always a chance of that but if its seeing blocking on average for half of winter, I doubt a trough could stay so the SW of us for a whole 6 weeks so would worry about specifics like that once we get within range of a cold blocked spell on the generic charts.

[MP-R]

51 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry, let me just add meat to bones: above statement pertinent for DJF (early winter) whereas +ve MSLP anomalies drift to W/SW for JFM. Thus indicative of higher chance colder 1st half winter, with change into 2nd half, in keeping with UKMO assessment. A winter of 2 halves...

Interesting and thanks for your ongoing knowledge-sharing Ian. Let's hope we can at least squeeze two cold winter months (looking like Dec and Jan most likely at this stage). Wouldn't want the winter ruined by February like 1996-97.

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

A winter of 2 halves...

Much better than a winter with no winter which coldies endured last year and early this year

As for latest models, snow is very much in the forecast tonight and early tomorrow

[bluearmy]

Very tough to rule out a west based neg NAO

Just need to get a decent neg NAO to begin with although where the blocking to our north is centred will also be unknown

it won't be a continual swathe of high heights from nw Russia to Greenland 

[Hocus Pocus]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Very tough to rule out a west based neg NAO

Just need to get a decent neg NAO to begin with although where the blocking to our north is centred will also be unknown

it won't be a continual swathe of high heights from nw Russia to Greenland 

Something the seasonal models wouldn't be able to pick up as such then BA and still be right on paper?

Edited November 8, 2016 by Hocus Pocus

[phil nw.]

Two members arguing -posts have been removed.Guys if you want to continue please message each other privately,this isn't the place.

Ok back to the models please.Ta

[Gael_Force]

I like this new GIF making feature Meteociel has provided for the GFS runs.

[Ali1977]

With the current blockto our NE the lows have been held over Europe, now the cold air is in the mix too the Ski resorts in the Alps are going to have a bumper start to the year!! Chamonix due way over a metre. Lets hope they keep the lows for the next few months down there giving us a better chance of some Easterlies - especially in Jan when the continent is really cold. 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I like this new GIF making feature Meteociel has provided for the GFS runs.

Wow, this is just what I've been wanting. Is it easy to do?

[Neilsouth]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry, let me just add meat to bones: above statement pertinent for DJF (early winter) whereas +ve MSLP anomalies drift to W/SW for JFM. Thus indicative of higher chance colder 1st half winter, with change into 2nd half, in keeping with UKMO assessment. A winter of 2 halves...

Isn't this what happened in 2010?

[Gael_Force]

Just now, Seasonality said:

Wow, this is just what I've been wanting. Is it easy to do?

Yep... just use the wee blue camcorder symbol under the fixed image floppy disc symbol. Pop up window gives the options for creating.

 

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

Sorry, let me just add meat to bones: above statement pertinent for DJF (early winter) whereas +ve MSLP anomalies drift to W/SW for JFM. Thus indicative of higher chance colder 1st half winter, with change into 2nd half, in keeping with UKMO assessment. A winter of 2 halves...

Surely that's a quarter and three quarter winter?

[Snowman.]

9 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Isn't this what happened in 2010?

Yup. But 2010 was a brutal cold at the start and unlikely to be repeated. 

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Chasing an easterly from Russia is not top of my list of how to get cold that's for sure!! Rarely do they come off and we can end up very very wet!

I guess it depends where you are. For those in the south and west a northerly rarely delivers though a cold NW stream over the Irish Sea can bring snow showers. However the best setup down here is either a trough moving in on a SE feed from a low pressure sitting under a Scandy/Russian high (as per Feb 91) or a proper warm/cold collision event causing stalling and heavy snow. I'll never forget Feb 96 in that regard.

 

Both require high pressure in situ. As you live in Poole I doubt  you would get much from a mid atlantic or Greeny ridge / scandy trough scenario which I assume is what you are hoping for instead?