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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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19 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Just a quick one regarding the potential evolution simply being 'cold and frosty' I urge caution if thinking that moving forward we will end up with what most of England and Wales has today for example, that may well not be the case. Cloud amounts and distribution will be the main 'forecast headache' in the days ahead and clearly a solid Sc layer during the day will surpress Tmax somewhat, but more importantly by night will really reduce the risk of frost and sub-zero temperatures....

Thanks Matt for that update - It really helps people like me, who want to learn and further understand how different charts and outputs are interpreted (like the soundings)

The forecasts have mentioned many areas will likely see more cloud as the week progresses, probably my least favourite weather as it just stays constantly chilly and grey...blehh...

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7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

If remember rightly didn't some of best winter weather come from high pressure over or near to U.K. :D

I absolutely agree, but I am seeing nothing in the model output to help. I would normally look to the MJO in a high amplitude Phase 1 or 8 which can aid with a HLB near us, but there is no signal for that.

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I would imagine the latest GFS would give us frosts most nights for 2 weeks, in the U.K. thats pretty impressive on its own!!

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7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

  of course mid Dec onwards could throw anything at us but we're not in a bad position at all to start the season. It's very nice just to see high pressure modelled as this in itself has been severely lacking in recent winters!

Agreed, it's mid December onwards that really interests me as that is the period when cold blocking is expected to tighten its icy grip..a cold christmas and new year would do nicely..hopefully the mid / longer range seasonal models continue to firm up on this.:D

Edited by Frosty.

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Be nice to see some upgrades and changes with HP pushing north later part of December or sooner..:D

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10 minutes ago, Tamara said:

The holding pattern is not a bad place to be at all with surface cold. Thereafter prospects for undercuts wrt the post mid December scenarios being described look better and better for upper cold air advection

 

 

That sounds very nice Tamara..thanks as always

Cold and settled looking models will do for me with added interest from mid dec:D

 

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Nearly time for the next instalment. It's eyes down!

Any sign of increasing heights to the NW or NE towards the outer reaches of FI would be well received.

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57 minutes ago, Tamara said:

and as the flag-waver for the possibilities after mid month, and indeed beyond into the New Year - taking into account 3 to 4 week timelines that can apply.

Great informative post by Tamara, I really hope we do see a change by mid month. As a pessimist though, I can't help but notice the potential pattern change seems to remain in weeks 2 and 3 on the models. Hopefully the blocked pattern can change into a cold and snowy pattern by mid month.

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Slightly different alignment of the high, less vertical, over the UK at t102 means the cooler uppers stay in the North Sea rather than flirting with the East coast.

6Z gfs-1-108.png?6  12Zgfs-1-102.png?12

Edited by Ravelin

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Slightly better tilt on the ridge in this run. Don't think there's quite enough energy for an undercut but you never know.

Better dogface though.

gfsnh-0-102.png

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15 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Slightly better tilt on the ridge in this run. Don't think there's quite enough energy for an undercut but you never know.

Better dogface though.

gfsnh-0-102.png

Yep, looks a bit better with heights hitting mainland Greenland at 132. Hopefully help build the ridge into Scandy in the coming frames slightly more North which may help generate an undercut !!

Edited by Ali1977

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7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yep, looks a bit better with heights hitting mainland Greenland at 132. Hopefully help build the ridge into Scandy in the coming frames slightly more North.

Holding out much further north so far. Could do with some troughing on the scandi side though

gfsnh-0-168.png

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the UKMO chart is alot better at 144h than this mornings run can we possibly get a scandi HP in the next few runs it looks like a steady inprovment for a change one thing the UKMO has not done well for the past week with this HP trying to flatten it at every oppitunity

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Just now, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-198.png?12?6

Looks like it's attempting an undercut to me,

Greenie high looking possible further down the line.

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Some excitement starting to creep back into the medium term. Great looking GFS with low pressure now in Europe!!

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