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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, Gavin Hannah said:

HP is looking to hold out more and more with each run.  No snow prospects yet, but it is keeping the Atlantic at bay.

Indeed. After Sunday's GFS 0z, some people were proclaiming the return of South Westerlies by Monday 4th Dec.

Fast forward 24 hours, and Monday 4th Dec currently shows HP remaining in place, and by Weds 7th Dec, HP still in situ..

The Atlantic certainly ain't getting through.

As winter officially starts this week, then let's hope we can see some of the white stuff in the not too distant future. We've certainly been spoiled with the output so this autumn.... yes autumn!

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Big difference at day 10 between the last 2 GFS runs

0Z gfsnh-0-252.png   6Z gfsnh-0-240.png?6

6z trying for both a Mid-Atlantic and a Scandi high.

Edited by Ravelin

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Certainly not looking like any raging s'westerlies in the short or medium term! Will feel very seasonal with cold frosty mornings and temperatures struggling by day! 

But look who's back in the freezer!! Damn you America :aggressive:

 

 

IMG_3733.PNG

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Gfs6z is a frigid run for most of Europe and we are looking at a very cold first half of Dec based on that run, increasingly colder, frost developing late afternoons as the sun drops earlier and earlier, some might say boring but compared to last Dec, chalk and cheese! 

:cold::D

Edited by northwestsnow

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Good morning, everyone! It's looking rather cold over the next 2 weeks according to the GFS. What we must remember is that even though the uppers aren't especially cold, there are likely to be some low temperatures both by day and night especially away from the coasts. However, snow looks unlikely due to the lack of lows, but cold and sunny conditions aren't bad especially after last year's disastrous Winter.

Edited by Grimers

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs6z is a frigid run for most of Europe and we are looking at a very cold first half of Dec based on that run, increasingly colder, frost developing late afternoons as the sun drops earlier and earlier, some might say boring but compared to last Dec, chalk and cheese! 

:cold::D

we always say get the cold in 1st and then the snow will follow - so maybe this is the anticipated build up - but that high loves the uk right now

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs6z is a frigid run for most of Europe and we are looking at a very cold first half of Dec based on that run, increasingly colder, frost developing late afternoons as the sun drops earlier and earlier, some might say boring but compared to last Dec, chalk and cheese! 

:cold::D

Depends how you look at it. I'd say the 0z was colder for Europe as a whole. The 06z is not as cold for eastern and northern Europe, but extends the depth of cold further into Spain. For the UK, yes, indeed, the 06z is colder. Still, at the range, I wouldn't be surprised to see another option come time for the 12z.

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29 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Big difference at day 10 between the last 2 GFS runs

0Z gfsnh-0-252.png   6Z gfsnh-0-240.png?6

6z trying for both a Mid-Atlantic and a Scandi high.

That 6z chart is cold  :cold:

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Temperatures really struggle under the high

Rtavn2281.gifRtavn22817.gif

Won't take much to get even colder air in if the high backs a bit further west

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10 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Depends how you look at it. I'd say the 0z was colder for Europe as a whole. The 06z is not as cold for eastern and northern Europe, but extends the depth of cold further into Spain. For the UK, yes, indeed, the 06z is colder. Still, at the range, I wouldn't be surprised to see another option come time for the 12z.

I would have to agree. This was illustrated well by the 00z GFS ensembles for Warsaw where the op was a cold outlier in terms of surface temps against the suite with clear divergence from around 8 December. It will be interesting looking at the ensembles for European capitals from the 06z to analyse the likelihood of the cold marching east. As it stands, the current run shows deep cold over Eastern and Central Europe out in the la la land reaches of FI.

 

gfs-1-384.png

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Look at those GFS charts. High pressure firmly in command at the helm. Easy does it. I am happy for Eastern Europe to dive into the freezer. Unique and exciting. High pressure close to hand will always have a potential to invite a flood of colder air. 

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I know not necessarily chart related although there is a chart on the page), but latest Meto blog going for colder than average December into January. Chart shows below Average to cold for the 3 month average.

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4 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I know not necessarily chart related although there is a chart on the page), but latest Meto blog going for colder than average December into January. Chart shows below Average to cold for the 3 month average.

Which is here https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/28/winter-outlook-for-december-2016-to-february-2017/ Good read too.

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23 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I would have to agree. This was illustrated well by the 00z GFS ensembles for Warsaw where the op was a cold outlier in terms of surface temps against the suite with clear divergence from around 8 December. It will be interesting looking at the ensembles for European capitals from the 06z to analyse the likelihood of the cold marching east. As it stands, the current run shows deep cold over Eastern and Central Europe out in the la la land reaches of FI.

 

gfs-1-384.png

Well I dunno about deep cold

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_61.png

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7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well I dunno about deep cold

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_61.png

All in the definition, I guess. Typically, for my country, the day time temperature for early December is 5-6 degrees and the night time low of around -1. Of course, this is average, and there are much colder times and milder times to end up with that, usually.

That said, deducting 6 degrees from those temperatures would be significant, but nobody would be calling it deep cold here. Peterb 3 would get some attention though ;-)

Edited by jvenge

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Just now, knocker said:

Well I dunno about deep cold

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_61.png

Well yes @knocker but I was referring to the 384h for 14 Dec chart in isolation, not the average of the preceding six days. That is very naughty of you. As you can see, very chilly through Western Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Baltics etc into Eastern Poland for the period I was referring to. I shall have to steal Sidney's nuts if you continue to carry on so. Maybe we should agree on a working definition of deep cold?

 

gfs-9-384.png

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06z Op colder than the mean for the 850's that's not to say it won't be cold at the surface may be higher single figures instead of low single figures

gefsens850London0.png

Control and mean very close from the 6th to 13th

Edited by Summer Sun

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32 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Knocker.

I'm sure I've seen knocks posting cold charts when that's what the nwp shows in a convincing fashion.

(once Sidney has hibernated)

size of the envelope continues to ebb and flow - 

Edited by Polar Maritime
To snip deleted quote.

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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

06z Op colder than the mean for the 850's that's not to say it won't be cold at the surface may be higher single figures instead of low single figures

gefsens850London0.png

Control and mean very close until the 13th

Wouldn't be surprised if after the 7th, lots more members start dipping back down to -5 as we get closer to this weekend.

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