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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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42 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I gathered that but isn't that a better way of getting your message across.

I rather like Knock's somewhat quirky prosaic way of saying things......just my view of course

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52 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It'll be coming from the right direction by mid Dec Knocker , About half 2 on that map!!

We hope:D

In the meantime it's chilly & settled.

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32 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Oh come on, anyone actually fancy discussing the, you know, 18z output that's rolling out other than playing mind games with each other?

I'll give you a start @t132..

12z gfsnh-0-138.png?12 18z gfsnh-0-132.png?18

The 18z has the low that was on the ukmo

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Quote

 

That's a better run for cold seekers.... 18Z Again high wants to elbow in on the fun. But it just needs that high to take a few steps to the side and hey presto...

hgt500-1000.png

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Near cross-polar flow at T240. 

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1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Near cross-polar flow at T240. 

Vortex splits again but the northern arm too active and systems repeatedly flattening any ridging so no encouragement for anything to happen re mid Atlantic ridge and the Arctic cousin. 

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If that run kept going i think it would be Greenland we would be looking towards.

Edited by booferking

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This is more like it,  the Gfs 18z shows reload after reload of polar maritime:D

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu (1).png

h850t850eu (2).png

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12 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

The 18z has the low that was on the ukmo

It's angled differently though, the ukmo one looked like it was heading east, this ones going south. Makes a big difference in out come. 

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

If that run kept going i think it would be Greenland we would be looking towards.

Agreed, Greenie high most likely

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Lows dive bombing SE would be a good thing to help suck all the cold to the NE our way 

h850t850eu (3).png

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And there we go, FI although FI starts showing potential risk of cold from various set ups - expect over the next day or 2 for the ENS to show more and more colder runs by the day. I have a great feeling for the snow gang with this winter and Xmas, even with the amount of negativity in here. 

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7 minutes ago, snowbunting said:

what does that mean?

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

Look at the deep low to our NE on the above chart. If you follow the flow it comes up the East side of the high on the opposite of the pole, past that deep low and down towards the North Sea. In theory.

 

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

And there we go, FI although FI starts showing potential risk of cold from various set ups - expect over the next day or 2 for the ENS to show more and more colder runs by the day. I have a great feeling for the snow gang with this winter and Xmas, even with the amount of negativity in here. 

This winter is nothing like last winter, believe me I know as I have not lost my wellie boot in the mud on the croft! It is a winter of wild cards.

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

One thing that interests my eye on the 18z, not so much the surface synoptics - which change most with every run, but at the 500mb level a vortex of deep cold air (purples) drifts SW toward Scandi towards day 10-11. 12z ECM det. showed similar too. Could be a result of the Aleutian omega ridge pushing poleward and displacing cold air the equatorward the other side of the pole. Worth keeping eyes to the N over the pole as well as to the west and east!

gfsgif_271116.gif

 

Excuse my ignorance, but does that animation show a split polar vortex?

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1 minute ago, snowbunting said:

Excuse my ignorance, but does that animation show a split polar vortex?

Only in the troposphere, the stratospheric PV isn't splitting anytime soon, just displaced from the pole for now

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Curious - didn't expect to see the Pacific poleward ridge so progressive as it is on the 18z. That'd make things interesting if the recent tendency to try and add too much mobility too soon to the Atlantic (related to troubles handling the MJO) was also maintained tomorrow.

One or both components could easily disappear tomorrow, but nonetheless the 18z is... curious.

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The models are really struggling by the looks of it. Just look at the stark differences between the ecm 00z and 12z ops in the medium to late stages. Very volatile to say the least.

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GFS ensemble Trend setter?

gensnh-5-1-204.pnggensnh-5-1-228.pnggensnh-5-0-228.png

 

Big outlier within its own suit but the first time it has been modeled.

If nothing else it does prove what I say is true, we are only one or two upgrades away from a cold pattern being modeled - only question is, will we get them? 

Edited by Mucka

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20 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensemble Trend setter?

gensnh-5-1-204.pnggensnh-5-1-228.png

 

Big outlier within its own suit but the first time it has been modeled.

If nothing else it does prove what I say is true, we are only one or two upgrades away from a cold pattern being modeled - only question is, will we get them? 

Yea but what makes it better is it has some kind of support from UKMO as shown below. 

There not miles apart at 144hr

Which then leads to the easterly in last image.

UW144-21 (1).gif

gens-5-1-6.png

gens-5-1-192.png

gens-5-1-228.png

Edited by booferking

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36 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensemble Trend setter?

gensnh-5-1-204.pnggensnh-5-1-228.pnggensnh-5-0-228.png

 

Big outlier within its own suit but the first time it has been modeled.

If nothing else it does prove what I say is true, we are only one or two upgrades away from a cold pattern being modeled - only question is, will we get them? 

The first -10 of the season for the season

ironically its the only ens that looks like UKMO 144 compare the 2 :)

IMG_9763.PNGIMG_9764.PNG

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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