Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Up to +90 and it seems like an uppercut is much more achievable on this run.

6z:  12z: 

Much more energy heading under the high....

A 'Thrilla in Manilla' or a 'Rumble in The Jungle'?

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Up to +90 and it seems like an uppercut is much more achievable on this run.

6z:  12z: 

Much more energy heading under the high....

Just don't think it's going to come to anything - METO would be on it!!

[Kieran]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

A 'Thrilla in Manilla' or a 'Rumble in The Jungle'?

Haha WOOPS.

Up to +114 and the secondary low seems much flatter and more willing to sink than on the earlier GFS run. Very positive run so far...

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Kieran said:

Haha WOOPS.

Up to +114 and the secondary low seems much flatter and more willing to sink than on the earlier GFS run. Very positive run so far...

It's better than the 6z in as much as the ridging HP gains slightly more traction...it just needs a smidgen more latitude (as did the UKMO this morning). If the core of the heights were just slightly more N&W it'd be game on.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's better than the 6z in as much as the ridging HP gains slightly more traction...it just needs a smidgen more latitude (as did the UKMO this morning). If the core of the heights were just slightly more N&W it'd be game on.

Nothing special but I'd imagine it would be pretty chilly in that set up - and Centra/Eastern Europe cooling down fast.

[MR EXTREMES]

talk about close but no cigar i expect it to be downhill from here mind you i suppose be better to get the vortex established and work from there.

certainly very busy models all over the place but very much trending unsettled into the latter runs.

[Daniel*]

Not good the so called 'energy' is going NE bowling away that ridge as it does. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Changing Skies said:

Not good the so called 'energy' is going NE bowling away that ridge as it does. 

Yep...it's a real shame so much of the jet is going over the top and we couldn't eke out an easterly...there would be so much cold to tap into 

[SMU]

Nice cold UKMO 144

no sign of any sinking there - If anything the atlantic block re-establishing pushing the next atlantic low NE towards Greenland

[MR EXTREMES]

but the ukmo has something the gfs dont look south

pretty dry chilly at times on both runs into fi.

but the low to our sw is not there on the gfs

Edited November 27, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice cold UKMO 144

no sign of any sinking there - If anything the atlantic block re-establishing pushing the next atlantic low NE towards Greenland

I think now we can hope for the GFS to make small steps, given the energy being split in this latest run compared to the last even though the end result is still meh. At least the consistency between the runs is still there. (Comparison of GFS and UKMO)

[Ben Sainsbury]

2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

but the ukmo has something the gfs dont look south

What do we need for the High over us to push NW?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice cold UKMO 144

no sign of any sinking there - If anything the atlantic block re-establishing pushing the next atlantic low NE towards Greenland

It's a shame we're starting this phase with the vortex over on the Siberian side Steve. It's sods law that we get a synoptic set up which is ripe for the development of  an easterly but it's thwarted by low heights in the critical areas. Had the vortex core been in any other position, those Atlantic heights would have been sheared into Scandi, with the jet buckle allowing WAA on their western periphery thus allowing the Scandi high to build. 

In reality we're stuck in no man's land with the core of the vortex not allowing Scandi heights to build before the low heights then drain back across to the Greenland side, powering up the jet and preventing any Greenland heights. Sucker punch for the UK...

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Nice cold UKMO 144

no sign of any sinking there - If anything the atlantic block re-establishing pushing the next atlantic low NE towards Greenland

mind you that big purple blob north of greenland looks bit cheesed of lol

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

What do we need for the High over us to push NW?

thats low to fill to our sw and  pull in an easterly

[Derecho]

Isn't it ironic that after the GFS being out on its own with the cold solutions UKMO is now producing them on its own? The high looks pretty robust at T144 and it would take quite a lot for the Atlantic to break through.

If both the ECM and GFS keep showing the milder SW winds after the high sinks over the next 2 days, then I think the UKMO may be going off on one.

However something makes me think that this may not be over yet... but lets wait and see.

[ICETAB]

GEM looks like it might go on to produce a scandi high to me at T144!

[Frosty.]

The ukmo is well known for poor verification at T+144 hours, something I've learned from being in here for the last 10 years. 

[chris pawsey]

Is that an oooooo face

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, chris pawsey said:

Is that an oooooo face

Its an upgrade, looks to me like Stewart Rampling's face if you look at the whole hemisphere!!!!!

[Snowman.]

In terms of heading into December

That's a fantastic NH profile best so far.

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely pacific ridge, stonking ridge our side of the pole.

[MR EXTREMES]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely pacific ridge, stonking ridge our side of the pole.

to my untrained eye thats a worry with larger vortex segment canadian side

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lovely pacific ridge, stonking ridge our side of the pole.

Nice easterly coming to close out the run...just as was shown on the 0z

@MR EXTREMES The easterly only becomes possible because the vortex has shifted over to the Canadian side. It's no issue because it will turn provider for snow events i.e spit LP systems into the Atlantic which will disrupt against the blocking over Scandi. 

Edited November 27, 2016 by CreweCold

[That ECM]

Start of the march from the east.