Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Can see where you're coming from, Nick...But, what about all those easterlies the never happen? Don't we 'often see those first', too?

Yes we've had more failed easterlies than I can remember. Its the very nature of them which is why they're so poorly handled by the models. I can though never remember an easterly that started with a huge jump in the ensembles, generally the op leads the way and the lower res ensembles take much longer because of the issues with trough disruption and shortwaves.

These types of set ups can flip either way because if just a bit more energy heads se rather than ne and the reverse then you can have totally different outcomes.

 

[SMU]

21 minutes ago, IDO said:

The mean high on the 5th is 5c and the mean high on the 12th is 7.5c, where is the dramatic drop?

Wasnt you quoting 14c yesterday post the 6th..?

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes we've had more failed easterlies than I can remember. Its the very nature of them which is why they're so poorly handled by the models. I can though never remember an easterly that started with a huge jump in the ensembles, generally the op leads the way and the lower res ensembles take much longer because of the issues with trough disruption and shortwaves.

These types of set ups can flip either way because if just a bit more energy heads se rather than ne and the reverse then you can have totally different outcomes.

 

Ironically other than Dec 10 the best easterlies have arrived sub 168 & the biggest ones at 240 have failed sub 144..!

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Poorish update from the Met would suggest Atlantic driven weather in the short to mid term ...............the wait for something wintry goes on. It will be interesting to see which model jumps ship first

Very much like the Gfs 6z in low res then with mild tropical maritime air flooding around the top of the Azores high..oh joy

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Poorish update from the Met would suggest Atlantic driven weather in the short to mid term ...............the wait for something wintry goes on. It will be interesting to see which model jumps ship first

That update does mention a chance of some transitional snow which would be impossible with the jet just running over the top, you could only have that with some trough disruption otherwise all the cold air ahead would be lifted out. They don't talk of anything very mild which is what the GFS wants to do. That update though changes as much as the outputs so it might change again tomorrow for better or worse!

[Wilxy]

Well looking at the GEFS and ECM ENS there really isn't a strong signal for cold weather for at least another 10 days yes I do understand that could change but I'm only seeing what it currently shows, so when someone continues to post a cold chart its no longer from the GFS which everybody was trusting when it was showing a blocked end of month to early start of December which is why I find it hard to believe when people trust long range models for months ahead when the charts still chop and change for 10 days ahead so i'm sitting back and enjoy what this winter has to throw at us because its going to be a long winter at this rate!

So today I'm not posting a cold chart so I don't expect any likes which is fine because i'm only posting what the charts say and I can't be bothered to go through every ensemble just to pick out a cold chart and say there is still hope, winter hasn't even begun yet and people are already upset, some of the best winters don't even start until after Christmas so its pointless getting annoyed already, there are a few factors that support a colder winter like the weaker polar vortex, ENSO netural or weak La Nina, North Pacific starting to cool down, overall I'm feeling more confident in colder spells this winter but if people are looking for a winter like 1962-1963, 1942-1943, 2009-2010, December 2010, there very rare and its funny when I see people try to compare weather patterns to that year, nothing is impossible but its very unlikely.

 

[Chris K]

6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Poorish update from the Met would suggest Atlantic driven weather in the short to mid term ...............the wait for something wintry goes on. It will be interesting to see which model jumps ship first

I suppose it ties in with their previous longer range thoughts of a milder, unsettled start to December...

It will be interesting to see if hints of colder weather returning starts to appear towards the middle of the month. In the mean time, settled, chilly and frosty nights where skies clear. After all the rain from Storm Angus we had here, it can stay that way for now!

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wasnt you quoting 14c yesterday post the 6th..?

Not a mean of 14c, that would be daft, but yes some members including the op had 14c, as they do today, and plenty of ECM members close to that in FI.

Just as much chance IMO for mild rather than trough disruption, so could've, would've, should've applies both way?

As others say trough disruption hard to predict and I remember last winter a big fail by GFS in that department when ECM was spot on, so never say no...

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, Chris K said:

I suppose it ties in with their previous longer range thoughts of a milder, unsettled start to December...

It will be interesting to see if hints of colder weather returning starts to appear towards the middle of the month. In the mean time, settled, chilly and frosty nights where skies clear. After all the rain from Storm Angus we had here, it can stay that way for now!

Yep................im looking for some frosty nights , fog lingering all day . Temps not climbing above 1-2c ........................distant memory in these parts

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Very much like the Gfs 6z in low res then with mild tropical maritime air flooding around the top of the Azores high..oh joy

Don't lose faith I think whoever compiled the extended meto forecast yesterday was still drunk from the night before. A very odd forecast based on what the models were showing. Todays update has reverted back to what it showed before yesterday which is fine - basically becoming more blocked as we enter mid Dec and colder as a result. All is good still

[Frosty.]

Latest GEFS 6z mean shows a milder trend as we go through December with air originating in the Azores, most settled spells in the south, most unsettled the further north you are.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

I admire people who attempt to do LRF's but I believe theres simply too much inherent chaos in the atmosphere to be able to nail down detail at longer range.

Yes this winter there are more things in our favour for some more decent spells of wintry weather but we shouldn't assume its a done deal. Its a bit like psychology , some people have say a pre-disposition to develop certain conditions but that doesn't mean they will.

The best way to view LRF's is simply that the atmosphere may be pre-disposed to deliver colder weather but then along the way things can happen that can tip the balance one way or another.

 

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Don't lose faith  

I haven't lost faith, I'm just describing what the models are showing.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The part that was in bold was highly questionable MWB. I wasn't arguing with anything else in it. 

Ah yes, fair enough, read your post too quickly. 

[phil nw.]

It is interesting just to look at all 3x00z operational runs and compare this mornings for Dec 1st with yesterday's.

Again,like yesterday's 12z's as we have gone forward 24hrs they have all moved to a more negative Atlantic tilted ridge with more of the jet split se.It does at the very least leave open the prospect of a switch in the pattern further on if this trend continues.Until this splitting of the Canadian trough at days 4/7 is resolved then the means are not very helpful.

Just saying.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

[Barry12]

The long range models are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The EC32, MOGREPS, GLOSEA5, have been showing a consistent theme for blocking and cold temperatures for months, yet were still waiting for anything other than a chilly temporary NWerly. Anything interesting is now pushed back to mid December. As Summer sun 'If I had a pound for everytime a day 10 chart showed potential'. I remain pessimistic until anything interesting moves into at least day 7, and has cross model support.

[Barry12]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

What are the verification stats for week 3 CFS charts?

[festivalking]

Forget the usual ECM vs UKMO vs GFS. at the moment the big stand off is SM vs NW vs TWO. I'm in the Steve Murr camp hoping that undercutt happens. Misplaced optimism hopes dashed or vindicated its just another winter that hasn't started yet!

Edited November 27, 2016 by festivalking

[Frosty.]

The 6z extended GEFS is full to overflowing with very mild weather like the 6z op, it's not looking like any wintry weather as such in terms of snow during the first half of december at least, it looks pish poor or pffft.. Background signals blah blah lol

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[andymusic]

13 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

The long range models are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The EC32, MOGREPS, GLOSEA5, have been showing a consistent theme for blocking and cold temperatures for months, yet were still waiting for anything other than a chilly temporary NWerly. Anything interesting is now pushed back to mid December. As Summer sun 'If I had a pound for everytime a day 10 chart showed potential'. I remain pessimistic until anything interesting moves into at least day 7, and has cross model support.

Gotta get one of them chocolate teapots - they sound delicious - sure my tummy could find a use for it - yep long range computer models are fine for getting us all ramped up or dampened down - but the natural tooing and froing of the atmosphere itself will not be tamed or figured out - and right at the mo our computer models still aren't clever enough to work out all the variables that the natural world works with - so it's certainly fun to speculate and watch developments, and to scientifically try and move towards being able to do this - BUT WE AIN'T THERE YET!

[snowwman]

The latest GFS output may seem backed by the ensemble mean, but it's instructive to look at all 20 ensemble stamps to understand what's going on:

 

 

, and that is the small percentage of members which are going with the operational run are skewing the mean. Some 15 out of 20 members are unsupportive of the op, and I suspect that in only a few run's time, the GFS op will be back with the blocked options. The same might apply to ECM, though I can't say for sure as I don't have access to the 51 members.

[Cheshire Freeze]

30 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Good agreement with last CFS daily run there....December mean-

 

 

[That ECM]

22 minutes ago, Barry95 said:

The long range models are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The EC32, MOGREPS, GLOSEA5, have been showing a consistent theme for blocking and cold temperatures for months, yet were still waiting for anything other than a chilly temporary NWerly. Anything interesting is now pushed back to mid December. As Summer sun 'If I had a pound for everytime a day 10 chart showed potential'. I remain pessimistic until anything interesting moves into at least day 7, and has cross model support.

Are we not in a blocked pattern, are we not getting colder than average temps. Has it not been drier and less mobile than normal? Main issue is people read into things and colder translates into concrete soil and powder snow. Is it faultless? Of course not but to slate it is out of order imo.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Barry95 said:

The long range models are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The EC32, MOGREPS, GLOSEA5, have been showing a consistent theme for blocking and cold temperatures for months, yet were still waiting for anything other than a chilly temporary NWerly. Anything interesting is now pushed back to mid December. As Summer sun 'If I had a pound for everytime a day 10 chart showed potential'. I remain pessimistic until anything interesting moves into at least day 7, and has cross model support.

I understand your frustration Barry but we will have to get used to it, winter is just around the corner and will be full of frustration and if you are waiting for anything interesting in terms of snow moving into day 7 range  with concrete cross model support, you could be waiting a loong time.

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.