Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Isn't this like they forecast in 2010?

Very similar, I think. But, how else does one make a forecast, when the computer models are so conflicted? I certainly don't envy them.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Isn't this like they forecast in 2010?

The signal for blocking was much stronger then and its one of the few occasions where the models didn't make a drama over it with the outputs overwhelmingly in favour. At the moment its not such a clear cut outcome so that's why I was surprised by that UKMO forecast which doesn't even have any caveats. The initial evolution of the high could still change given its sensitivity to the pattern in the USA so I'd urge some caution until that's resolved. Its been a very up and down week with coldies nerves shredded, in a nutshell though given the overall set up if we can squeeze even more amplitude than what the ECM shows between T120 and T168hrs then it would need some outlandish turn of events for the UK to avoid at least some colder temperatures. As for any snow too far out to say but theres a chance if things fall into place.

[Frosty.]

It looks like we will be going cold during early December according to the models and its pretty chilly already and will be for several more days with night frosts and freezing fog..and we have an increasingly blocked Dec to look forward to..heavenly compared to the hell 1 year ago! 

[Sparkiee storm]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The signal for blocking was much stronger then and its one of the few occasions where the models didn't make a drama over it with the outputs overwhelmingly in favour. At the moment its not such a clear cut outcome so that's why I was surprised by that UKMO forecast which doesn't even have any caveats. The initial evolution of the high could still change given its sensitivity to the pattern in the USA so I'd urge some caution until that's resolved. Its been a very up and down week with coldies nerves shredded, in a nutshell though given the overall set up if we can squeeze even more amplitude than what the ECM shows between T120 and T168hrs then it would need some outlandish turn of events for the UK to avoid at least some colder temperatures. As for any snow too far out to say but theres a chance if things fall into place.

 

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Very similar, I think. But, how else does one make a forecast, when the computer models are so conflicted? I certainly don't envy them.

Yea true, I agree with both. Hopefully we can get something noteworthy in the end, with models keep popping up the cold run every so often, and now the ECM coming on board more, after mostly failing all week.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Can we keep Met Office outlook discussion in the relevant threads please? Any further posts will be removed. Keep this thread for model discussion

Not trying to be difficult but if discussion re the UKMO forecast is connected with what the outputs show then isn't that acceptable in the model discussion. So for example just liking or not liking the UKMO forecast wouldn't be acceptable but discussing the UKMO in relation to the outputs would be. As you've seen we're having a discussion re that UKMO forecast and comparing it to the signal in the outputs. Personally I don't see the problem. My previous post IMO is merited to this thread.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Not trying to be difficult but if discussion re the UKMO forecast is connected with what the outputs show then isn't that acceptable in the model discussion. So for example just liking or not liking the UKMO forecast wouldn't be acceptable but discussing the UKMO in relation to the outputs would be. As you've seen we're having a discussion re that UKMO forecast and comparing it to the signal in the outputs. Personally I don't see the problem. My previous post IMO is merited to this thread.

Yes, that's fine,, but simply copy and pasting the outlook with virtually no comment on the models does not belong in this thread.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Nick L said:

Yes, that's fine,, but simply copy and pasting the outlook with virtually no comment on the models does not belong in this thread.

Fair enough that's fine with me. We've reached a good compromise.

[Weathizard]

You just can't make the GFS up can you - it's like a soap opera, we had ops and ensembles on side for something colder for days against all the other models, it then backtracks to a more agreed upon solution then the ECM starts producing better charts and ensembles, meanwhile the GFS op is poor & the ensembles in the long term are dreadful.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

The latest week ahead forecast from the beeb says temperatures later next week and into the weekend will be widely in double figures

GFS isn't buying this with temperatures stuck in single figures... who will be right

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Spah1]

I know this has been asked before and answered but I can't remember. Which model is the BBC 10 day forecast generated from ? Is the raw Ukmo? 

[Matthew.]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It looks like we will be going cold during early December according to the models and its pretty chilly already and will be for several more days with night frosts and freezing fog..and we have an increasingly blocked Dec to look forward to..heavenly compared to the hell 1 year ago! 

I think youve hit the nail on the head frosty. Things are looking cold and frosty on the whole with HP close by. I know some want snow and freezing temperatures but to be fair its not a bad outlook at all for a Uk start of winter. Coldies should take frosty HP with open arms

[mulzy]

Just for fun but merry xmas folks!

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes Matthew, certainly will accept it, miles better than sleety bursts in heavy showers, rain with snow dumpings for high ground, fair for all this

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

I think youve hit the nail on the head frosty. Things are looking cold and frosty on the whole with HP close by. I know some want snow and freezing temperatures but to be fair its not a bad outlook at all for a Uk start of winter. Coldies should take frosty HP with open arms

Agree 100 percent, get the cold anticyclonic entrenched first and if we get any snow it will be a wonderful bonus!..the mods..I mean the models are looking very seasonal 

Edited November 26, 2016 by Frosty.

[Tamara]

13 hours ago, Catacol said:

No - I dont think this is true. If you analyse what the real experts on here have been saying you will note that none of them stated we would have proper cold and ideal synoptics in late Nov. There was a signal from the Met long term model for a trough over the UK towards the end of Nov with temps likely a little below average. There was a suggestion of a mid atlantic high alongside too. That hasnt come to pass - instead that high has become a strong UK block which just proves the best long term models get it wrong! But those interpreting the signals have kept their ammo dry, and my reading of all the info has been a shift towards cold from mid Dec. 

What is certainly true is that we have a much different setup to last year. All the experts have stated this, and the models bear it out. We dont have a strong westerly regime, and instead we have a meandering jet, high pressure dominance and cold air already seeping out of the arctic. And we arent even in winter yet. I suggest if you need a pick me up you read Tamara's last post. Very informative, suggesting not only a shift to an even more blocked pattern, but a possible route forward seeing potential spikes in AAM and cross polar ridging. If we get a wave 2 warming as a result then the vortex may indeed fall apart. GP is also sounding pretty bullish.

Dodge the clever posts of one or two who like to stir it up even when they know most people are on here to see if we can get snow. Instead hold on to the teleconnections we have in place. We still need some luck - but there remains a realistic chance of a special winter this time around. If we got that wave 2 attack with the MJO remaining active as Nina fades and dies (and I know these are some big ifs) then we are in business. Cold from mid December was always my call (I'm not an expert I hasten to add....) and I remain very optimistic. Can we get some high lat blocking in place by mid month and then see a SSW with impacts through January? It's possible. We would then have to be very unlucky I think not to get at least one decent cold spell out of winter, and with a bit of luck we could have a rinse and repeat pattern of cold weather through much of the season. That's about as good as it gets in the UK as with most of the great 80s winters. Another 47 or 63? Unlikely. But current global conditions would certainly shorten the odds compared to most winters since the mid 90s.

Every reason therefore to be optimistic.

Thanks for outlining very accurately the true perspectives as have been attempted, and which correct misrepresented myth. One can only hope that yet another season of these kind of unhelpful comments/digs isn't ahead on this thread, ruining a lot of the excellent contributions made by so many.  In respect of those contributions, much thanks is certainly due to Tony and Matt for their seasonal forecast. Faced with so many unprecedented variables, its some task to decipher those and put them together into a cohesive programme. It has certainly given me an excellent 'thinking' platform and for that it is a winner already anyway - whatever the computer models and weather decides to do.

I add my name to the list who doesn't consider herself an expert. This is a community thread which is, as far as I am concerned at least, about contributing what one can, based on the enthusiasm of reading and learning from others, (as well as researching the vat of information that the world web supplies).  It is not a designated ' ego chatroom' to find the best and most accurate forecaster and absurdly prematurely call people out for their opinions. Whether that is on the public domain, or even privately...

There remains separate distinctive paths that the weather patterns may take. The more bullish one stated yesterday remains as valid as the more cautious one suggested the previous day.

But uncertainty vs a chaotic tropospheric/stratospheric relationship which, as is being discussed in great detail on this thread, appears quite readily inclined towards amplification is about as good a place as could be hoped for just a few days before winter official begins. Its also a country mile from having to type the essay I remember posting almost exactly a year back which attempted to describe the mountains that were needed to be climbed - and just ahead of the combination of anomalous warmth and flooding that were the unappealing headline grabbers to focus realistic attention.

An anti-cyclonic holding pattern is a pretty good place to be while the uncertainties (and the distinct possibilities!) play out.  Jam tomorrow? No, I definitely think we have some jam already today

 

.

 

[beefy201]

21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The latest week ahead forecast from the beeb says temperatures later next week and into the weekend will be widely in double figures

GFS isn't buying this with temperatures stuck in single figures... who will be right

 

I think this is the much more likely scenario (BBC) it is funny to see such cold ramps going on when the reality is so much diffrent

[nick sussex]

19 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The latest week ahead forecast from the beeb says temperatures later next week and into the weekend will be widely in double figures

GFS isn't buying this with temperatures stuck in single figures... who will be right

 

Bizarre. Looking at the outputs that forecast doesn't match especially with the UKMO updated at 11.56am, that tv forecast says updated an hour later and I suspect that was recorded much earlier or done the previous night.  Admittedly theres still some uncertainty given the models have been chopping and changing but theres simply no way the BBC can give that forecast without adding a caveat because its finely balanced. Indeed both the UKMO and BBC look too bullish either way and one wonders whats going on.

[weatherguy]

Not much analysis here but thought it's worth showing the current state of affairs to the +384 6z GFS...

It's like a mirror image, look at that beasty Canadian PV lobe 

[Frosty.]

This is what the Ecm 12z and Gfs 18z were showing last night, things have changed a bit since then

Talk about yesterday's newspaper being today's fish and chip paper!

[northwestsnow]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bizarre. Looking at the outputs that forecast doesn't match especially with the UKMO updated at 11.56am, that tv forecast says updated an hour later and I suspect that was recorded much earlier or done the previous night.  Admittedly theres still some uncertainty given the models have been chopping and changing but theres simply no way the BBC can give that forecast without adding a caveat because its finely balanced. Indeed both the UKMO and BBC look too bullish either way and one wonders whats going on.

Pmsl, totally at odds with todays metoffice update, im sorry but that is farcical! maybe knocker should be getting sidney some factor 50!Roll on the 12zs for some clarity, not...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I am not surprised re the 00z ECM. I called the Bartlett High output it showed for early Dec as wrong. I still call it wrong.  We have just had a massive Earth facing coronal hole with large geo-magnetic pulse with increase / burst of solar wind. I believe this will buckle the jet stream hence my thoughts of the HP to our NW would develop.  We will see now if this ECM change gathers momentum.  

 

BFTP

[The PIT]

The week ahead forecast  shows the perils of looking to far ahead when the models are chopping and changing a lot at that time period. A bit of a oopsy possibly.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Pmsl, totally at odds with todays metoffice update, im sorry but that is farcical! maybe knocker should be getting sidney some factor 50!Roll on the 12zs for some clarity, not...

It's a case of the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing, obsolete data fit for the bin. The current expert view and model view is for a colder early December, not a mild and mushy one!

[Frank Trough]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Can we keep Met Office outlook discussion in the relevant threads please? Any further posts will be removed. Keep this thread for model discussion

I don't really understand why it doesn't belong in this thread? it's just discussing the met office discussing the models? It is model discussion isn't it? 

[Geordiesnow]

30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Bizarre. Looking at the outputs that forecast doesn't match especially with the UKMO updated at 11.56am, that tv forecast says updated an hour later and I suspect that was recorded much earlier or done the previous night.  Admittedly theres still some uncertainty given the models have been chopping and changing but theres simply no way the BBC can give that forecast without adding a caveat because its finely balanced. Indeed both the UKMO and BBC look too bullish either way and one wonders whats going on.

That forecast just showing what the 00Z UKMO run is saying, which is a lot flatter and would show the milder air coming in.

Going by the UKMO forecast, one may imagine the 12Z UKMO could show something more like the ECM but we shall see.