Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Devonshire]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

early reaches the point of no return...

Steve, could you put a little more meat on the bones please?

[nick sussex]

Just now, Devonshire said:

Thank you Nick, that is just the type of model commentary that I come to this forum for: informative as to what is going on and maybe in the pipeline for us, while also educational for a newbie like me - more please! (and yes - I am learning lots from a few other posters too!)

You're welcome. I do occasionally throw my toys out of the pram when the output gets on my nerves but I do have moments of clarity and calmness where I hope to give newcomers and those interested a better understanding without too much techno babble. You can always tell when the outputs are better for cold because you get less histrionics from me and more posts like that above! lol

[Duane S.]

In a way I am gutted with the current set up. It is becoming increasingly evident that, barring a (albeit perfectly plausible) sequence of bad luck, the UK is going to get cold (possibly very cold) later on in December.

Something has got to give with this set up IMO, the mid lat high pressure will eventually give away to retrogression and the Arctic floodgates are going to open. My expectations are that, from around the end of the first week of Dec, an initial northerly blast with a strong Azores HP sat to our SW (caveat: the blast may end up just to our east but I think we will get it),  a mild(er) period to follow as the Azores pumps back in, then a brief but potent Scandi high, then full on retrogression to Greenland as all the energy slips underneath and we will be locked in to an East based NAO. OK I get it, that is a dream scenario and it doesn't occur very often but... then nor does the genuine opportunity, which is exactly what we have right here, right now.

I am gutted (personally) because I am going to be out of the country the last the last 2 weeks of December. Prime time for some fun and games. That said, once set up, I would fully expect January to carry on giving.

[Iceaxecrampon]

06Z absolute zero in terms of any ppn of note due to the jet forcing up towards Lewis and Harris but decidedly chilly throughout all the run - yes these were early winters like they used to be.

Edited November 26, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

Steve, could you put a little more meat on the bones please?

Will do around 3 ~

[Summer Sun]

The 00z sums up the lack of rain quite nicely

[northwestsnow]

And...to...tie..in..with...steves...thoughts...nice...little...upgrade..meto.medium..ranger...

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You're welcome. I do occasionally throw my toys out of the pram when the output gets on my nerves but I do have moments of clarity and calmness where I hope to give newcomers and those interested a better understanding without too much techno babble. You can always tell when the outputs are better for cold because you get less histrionics from me and more posts like that above! lol

At times like these, I suggest that everyone keep a teddy to hand. Anywho, the GFS seems to have gone for hero to zero and then back to hero, all in the space of twenty-four hours?

Many more moments of consternation still to come, methinks...

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

And...to...tie..in..with...steves...thoughts...nice...little...upgrade..meto.medium..ranger...

Any links or a chart?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Any links or a chart?

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Dec 2016 to Saturday 10 Dec 2016:

We are likely to see outbreaks of rain and strong winds affecting northern parts of the UK to start the period, but it should be largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells and light winds across the south. There will be some frost and freezing fog patches overnight where skies are clear. As we go into early December, as pressure remains high around the country, central and western areas are likely to be fine and dry with a threat of more unsettled conditions further east. With cold conditions becoming established across the country, there will be further overnight frost with the risk of some sleet and snow across northeastern parts, especially over higher ground.

Hope..knocker..is...going..to..buy..sidney..some...gloves...

sounds..like..they..are..going...with...ecm!!!!

Edited November 26, 2016 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Dec 2016 to Saturday 10 Dec 2016:

We are likely to see outbreaks of rain and strong winds affecting northern parts of the UK to start the period, but it should be largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells and light winds across the south. There will be some frost and freezing fog patches overnight where skies are clear. As we go into early December, as pressure remains high around the country, central and western areas are likely to be fine and dry with a threat of more unsettled conditions further east. With cold conditions becoming established across the country, there will be further overnight frost with the risk of some sleet and snow across northeastern parts, especially over higher ground.

Hope..knocker..is...going..to..buy..sidney..some...gloves...

That looks like the UKMO expect the high to get further north with low pressure towards the east/ne. That goes firmly against the high sinking, when you think of just last night the BBC thought milder would win. Just goes to show the volatile nature of the output. For that reason although I'm very happy to see todays changes we need another few runs to be more sure.

[Snow Grain]

1 hour ago, booferking said:

This really is a forecasters nightmare John Hammond speaking last night of Milder Weather more likely to return for next week as they were more sure than the day before, now were back to square one again with this.

This really is brilliant model watching im loving every minute of it.

I would stick with what john Hammond said, the met office have far more information.  The charts everyone keeps hanging their hopes on are generally pants.  Surely after years of enduring countless false hopes, and claiming that the ecm etc. have had their reputation dented, the people in here should be a lot wiser.  It's pointless watching charts swing either way from day to day.  If easterlies etc. are coming, they tend to show up at shorter notice, not 14 days out.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That looks like the UKMO expect the high to get further north with low pressure towards the east/ne. That goes firmly against the high sinking, when you think of just last night the BBC thought milder would win. Just goes to show the volatile nature of the output. For that reason although I'm very happy to see todays changes we need another few runs to be more sure.

I agree: the current blocking high doesn't look at all like it'll turn into a 'slumper' to me, either.

[karlos1983]

Yikes that does not paint a pretty picture at all 

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Snow Grain said:

I would stick with what john Hammond said, the met office have far more information.  The charts everyone keeps hanging their hopes on are generally pants.  Surely after years of enduring countless false hopes, and claiming that the ecm etc. have had their reputation dented, the people in here should be a lot wiser.  It's pointless watching charts swing either way from day to day.  If easterlies etc. are coming, they tend to show up at shorter notice, not 14 days out.

Always had that perception regarding easterlies - not the UK "default" weather and hard for the models to get a grip with.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yikes that does not paint a pretty picture at all 

Faulty!!!...

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yikes that does not paint a pretty picture at all 

Sod all ppn and a real rollercoaster.

[karlos1983]

P12 on the other hand

Yes please 

[nick sussex]

I'm quite surprised by the bullishness of that UKMO forecast. Although the ECM ensembles have more colder solutions today than last night I wouldn't say theres an overwhelming case for what seems that rock solid type forecast. Of course we don't have access to all the UKMO data available. I wonder whether we're seeing the forecaster go more with experience. Generally with east/ne flows and high pressure towards Scandi the ensembles struggle because of their lower resolution  and normally come on board later.

[ArHu3]

7 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Always had that perception regarding easterlies - not the UK "default" weather and hard for the models to get a grip with.

I looked at a lot of cold spells in the archive of ecmwf and they tend to suddenly appear mostly at +168h or sometimes 192h

[gottolovethisweather]

17 hours ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Post D7 tonight's ECM has lost the plot! Still, all to play for IMHO and will reanalyse things again come Monday after the weekend wobbles, but I do think HP dominance will likely continue into the first week of December.

 

 

 

No further comments necessary as it appears I was on the ball. Here's hoping the 0z is the new trendsetter. If this is the new evolution (difficult to judge on simply one run in isolation as this doesn't tell the full story), if you're looking for the white stuff, it'll be ice rather than snow for a while yet.  Longer spells of HP dominance as I've said several times before should be welcomed by coldies as they are often precursors to something special down the road. I'll vouch for a CET well below normal this December now even at this stage, game on!

Edited November 26, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

25 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I looked at a lot of cold spells in the archive of ecmwf and they tend to suddenly appear mostly at +168h or sometimes 192h

 

 

 

 

And everything beyond t+168 on yesterday ECM's went awry too in terms of warmth hence my suspicions. Another reason why our fabled northerlies or cooler/warmer spells (whichever happens to be your choice) need to get within the reliable before being given any special attention. I think the pros refer to this as macro and micro scale forecasting, although I may be wrong, lol. Macro being the upper air global viewpoint and micro being the specifics at the surface i.e weather fronts, surface lows and highs etc. The ongoing hints at an extension of the current spell of HP influence have been there over a few 12z runs now in particular. Matching intra-operational runs teaching us much more once again than when observing the consecutive inter-model runs.

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Devonshire]

39 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

I would stick with what john Hammond said, the met office have far more information.

Except if you are talking about his current/latest Weather for the Week Ahead on iPlayer , while saying the mild solution was more likely, he rounded that off with a pointed recognition that a slight shift in the pattern led to the possibility of colder development - with a lovely looking graphic by way of demonstration. It is the latter (outside?) possibility that the models appear to be trending towards now...

[Sparkiee storm]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Dec 2016 to Saturday 10 Dec 2016:

We are likely to see outbreaks of rain and strong winds affecting northern parts of the UK to start the period, but it should be largely dry and fine with bright or sunny spells and light winds across the south. There will be some frost and freezing fog patches overnight where skies are clear. As we go into early December, as pressure remains high around the country, central and western areas are likely to be fine and dry with a threat of more unsettled conditions further east. With cold conditions becoming established across the country, there will be further overnight frost with the risk of some sleet and snow across northeastern parts, especially over higher ground.

Hope..knocker..is...going..to..buy..sidney..some...gloves...

sounds..like..they..are..going...with...ecm!!!!

Isn't this like they forecast in 2010?

[Nick L]

Can we keep Met Office outlook discussion in the relevant threads please? Any further posts will be removed. Keep this thread for model discussion