Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

Well, well, a few of us said yesterday that crazy as we may be we thought we'd see something colder pop up in the medium term. Lo and behold this morning we see that, and on the ECM too, which has just recently been crowned king by many. 

Still its far from a done deal as at t144 there's major differences between the 'big 3'.

UN144-21.GIF?26-06 ECH1-144.GIF?26-12 gfsnh-0-144.png

Probably going to have to wait until the 12z run before we get any clarity, if we do. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was really looking forward to those balmy very mild swly zephyrs:spiteful:

 

h850t850eu.png

ecmt850.192.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well well well.   I haven't gone in depth yet but have maintained and put my hat in the ring to say that I believed that the ECM was wrong with what it was showing.  It is but  one mere run BUT I strongly believe it is now smelling the coffee.  As i posted it could still make a chump put of me....but not if that continues.  What a start to the weekend!!

 

BFTP

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GEFS 7-12 anomaly is agreeing with the det with a much flatter pattern upstream but no Pacific ridging over the Pole Not good if you looking for a cold plunge but okay for some daffodil zephyrs. Keep still my beating heart.

gefs_t850a_5d_nh_49.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Only a raving looney would take anything past +786h seriously, you nutter! :crazy::D

cfs-2-786.png?18

if it's still there tomorrow then we're down to T+762, much more inside the reliable time frame and then watch 100+ members ramp the hell out of it....lol.....in the meantime, and joking aside, tranquil, & fairly static weather is in the offing for the near future

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a pleasant turnaround from the 00z output, let's hope it firms up!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the GEFS are a mess of mobility with big spread evident across both oceans week 2. if in doubt = mid lat ridge for nw Europe!

the ECM op delivers the glancing blow I mentioned was feasible yesterday evening courtesy of the trending undercutting in the western Atlantic.

what grabs me by the proverbials this morning is the day 10 polar profile on the op. Hoping the control is following the op so I can see what it does with the two vortex segments and what the Pacific ridging might elicit. GEFS keen to rebuild the nw greeny vortex through week 2 - something which is no doubt responsible for its mobility. Eps have been less keen on this but still playing with it so having seen how the op is headed at day 10, I wonder if the eps will show a different trend now?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Await 00Z EC ENS with immediate interest to see where the HRES is situated within the overall ENS. Will reply here when viewed...

M. 

What time Matt? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

the GEFS are a mess of mobility with big spread evident across both oceans week 2. if in doubt = mid lat ridge for nw Europe!

the ECM op delivers the glancing blow I mentioned was feasible yesterday evening courtesy of the trending undercutting in the western Atlantic.

what grabs me by the proverbials this morning is the day 10 polar profile on the op. Hoping the control is following the op so I can see what it does with the two vortex segments and what the Pacific ridging might elicit. GEFS keen to rebuild the nw greeny vortex through week 2 - something which is no doubt responsible for its mobility. Eps have been less keen on this but still playing with it so having seen how the op is headed at day 10, I wonder if the eps will show a different trend now?

 

Hoping..the..ECM...ens..have...flipped....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

well well well. turnarond this morning as the models start to sample the strenght on the block and we finally get some energy underneath. i had mentioned this yeterday and hopefully this trend will be our friend.

TJ

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Await 00Z EC ENS with immediate interest to see where the HRES is situated within the overall ENS. Will reply here when viewed...

M. 

EEH1-168.GIF?26-12

 

ec seems pretty certain @168h

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS 7-12 anomaly is agreeing with the det with a much flatter pattern upstream but no Pacific ridging over the Pole Not good if you looking for a cold plunge but okay for some daffodil zephyrs. Keep still my beating heart.

gefs_t850a_5d_nh_49.png

You could be right knocker, this isn't a done deal by any means but it's a welcome boost for coldies from the 00z ops on the cusp of winter.:) 

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM more amplified in the short term in agreement with the op but then goes back towards where it was post day 10. Still drifting out but no sign that the short term change has longer term ramifications yet. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You could be right knocker, this isn't a done deal by any means but it's a welcome boost for coldies from the 00z ops on the cusp of winter.:) 

Whoa there. I haven't passed an opinion on who is right or wrong. I suspect only a brave person would do that. Or a foolhardy one. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's all about the Jet position according to the Beeb currently in blowtorch mode.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And as we were.  I'm off now to see Sidney/

ecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Whoa there. I haven't passed an opinion on who is right or wrong. I suspect only a brave person would do that. Or a foolhardy one. :)

Very true Malcolm, but at least the 00z ops output is an upgrade regarding cold potential compared to 24 hours ago, or even 6 /12 hrs ago for that matter.:)

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM ens shows a few days of colder air in early December before it's pushed away by milder south westerlies

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.pngECMAVGEU00_168_2.pngECMAVGEU00_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_2.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The ECM ens shows a few days of colder air in early December before it's pushed away by milder south westerlies

ECMAVGEU00_120_2.pngECMAVGEU00_168_2.pngECMAVGEU00_192_2.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_2.pngECMAVGEU00_240_2.png

It's still an improvement compared to last night's 12z ensemble mean Gavin, hopefully more signs of a shift to colder by this evening.:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Right, that's it....I've decided- we're blatantly being trolled by the NWP

ECH1-144.GIF?26-12

Like I said lastnight, still very finely balanced. Good start to the day!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, there's that little bit of extra amplification needed to turn a positively tilted Atlantic trough into a negatively tilted one, crossing the crucial threshold between overtopping a ridge and pumping warm air up its western flank to enhance and sustain it.

Im wary of anticipating much longevity to resulting cold though, due to the possible maritime tropical forcing that the models may be overlooking. Having said that, it's possible the tropical activity will be very low amplitude as it moves through that area, which would minimise the encouragement of Euro height rises trying to interfere with our attempts to get a decent blocking pattern ahead of schedule, so to speak.

Stealth mode MJO through 4-5 then reinvigoration in 6-7... now that would be sensational.

Edited by Singularity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...