Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Cheshire Freeze]

Right, that's it....I've decided- we're blatantly being trolled by the NWP

[Fingers]

Can't post charts on phone. Looks like height rises going in to Greenland @ 144 hours on the the Ecm. Will our high retrogress and put us in a northerly!  Looking forward to the next few frames!

[Polar Maritime]

Some hard frosts to come next week for the South under clear sky's. 

 

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Right, that's it....I've decided- we're blatantly being trolled by the NWP

Deinitely!

GFS finally gives up the ghost so of course ECM suddenly decides a stonking Atlantic ridge is the way forward.

My guess is that it is a big fat outlier within its ensembles later.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

Deinitely!

GFS finally gives up the ghost so of course ECM suddenly decides a stonking Atlantic ridge is the way forward.

My guess is that it is a big fat outlier within its ensembles later.

Day 6 ECM though....

There is hope that it has picked up a new way forward...faint hope but hope nonetheless.

[Man With Beard]

ECM and GFS both cold with northerly flow by T168

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Day 6 ECM though....

There is hope that it has picked up a new way forward...faint hope but hope nonetheless.

I felt something might pop up unexpectedly in the 168/192 range but more as a toppler turning into an Icelandic high but not a strong Atlantic ridge at 144 - this is out of the blue from ECM and nothing like the rest of the mornings output so definitely a very large dose of salt required.

Edited November 26, 2016 by Mucka

[Seasonality]

ECM trying to go from zero to hero for the uk in this run. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I felt something might pop up unexpectedly in the 168/192 range but more as a toppler turning into an Icelandic high but not a strong Atlantic ridge at 144 - this is out of the blue from ECM and nothing like the rest of the mornings output so definitely a very large of salt required.

Still, food for thought I suppose

[That ECM]

When you have a weak Pv especially over the area that has a big influence on our part of the world. Different potential out comes are plentiful. ECM playing out another. Not for the faint hearted but boy it's more interesting this year than it has been for awhile. For what it's worth, game on imo.....

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Still, food for thought I suppose

It is certainly that.

If it has a handle on the upstream that other models have missed then we are in business.

The good thing is it is only 96/120 out so it will either drop tonight or it is definitely onto something.

[Seasonality]

Is the new ecm back to its old over amplification tricks

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

NAVGEM heading in ECM direction too...lol

[IDO]

There looks to be a couple of opportunities (next 16 days) for cold shots as temporary upstream amplification allows the Azores to pump WAA north, but it is the fine detail as to how much cold the UK gets and whether it is a dry northerly or a bit more interesting.

Anyway looking at the GFS op, again little support in the GEFS with any cold shots too far east. The shot at D13:

op:  mean: 

The cold shot at D8:

 mean 

Looking at the GFS pattern in the next 16 days it is very poor for prolonged cold. We have lost the Azores and Russian HP systems with the former displaced over the N Atlantic/UK region. The N Pacific potential ridge has been dampened and the PV has freewill to meander over the higher latts of the NH. So mobility within the confines of the displaced Azores High. Later in the run the Azores HP returns and the N Pacific ridge has another go to provide a more meridional upstream. However that has been a false dawn to date and the D16 GFS op chart resembles a very familiar pattern of late (mean):

D16 mean GFS

I noticed the new "improved" ECM has finally latched onto the GFS synoptics with upstream temporary ridging allowing the UK to be very close to a cold northerly flow, that needs to be corrected west to be more productive. So the models need to tighten up on that potential transient cold shot from D7-D10. Could be something or nothing as we are on the margins of that flow. The GEM for instance pushes slightly east and we are in a milder flow:

GEM D8 GFS D8 ECM 

Variations for that toppler. Will we be lucky this time?

 

[Ali1977]

Very interesting mornings runs - looks like the warmer days may not get in and the Northerly could happen - that Northerly could then lead to something better looking at the ECM at 240. Good stuff

Navgem at 180 looks v good too

Edited November 26, 2016 by Ali1977

[karlos1983]

What an ECM. Almost a Stella run. I've had to change my bed sheets..

I spat my coffee out when I saw this 

Edited November 26, 2016 by karlos1983

[bradymk]

Wow the mid range is so uncertain. ECM run is basically what John Hammond said last night that there was still a risk that the high would be further west. 

Was not expecting that run though...

 

[SteveB]

It's the 4th of December again, charts were showing it to be the date for an arctic plunge before they had a wobble. Not surprised to see them pick it up again.

Expect some more miner wobbles, but I have a feeling we have a clear way forward and it leads to cold.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

for fun of course but 4 days later

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for fun of course but 4 days later

That's your idea of fun 

i must admit, I'm keen to see where that ECM run sits in the ensembles. Hope it has some support.

Edited November 26, 2016 by karlos1983

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

That's your idea of fun 

no way by 'fun' I meant not to be taken seriously at 700+ hours away, its CFS!

[captaincroc]

*If* and a big if the models are starting to pick up on height rises then It won't suddenly switch from nothing to a full northern attack, we do normally get a phasing of solutions and I feel this could be what is happening here.  All the long term modelling still puts height rises to our north over the next few weeks, maybe this is the NWP picking up on that signal that the longer range models could see.  Considering we are talking about only 144 hours away, I feel it could become a very exciting 24 hours....

 

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Deinitely!

GFS finally gives up the ghost so of course ECM suddenly decides a stonking Atlantic ridge is the way forward.

My guess is that it is a big fat outlier within its ensembles later.

 

 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

morning all and if  f1  right and as Hammond on BBC news 24 weather  said  last night snow and ice could arr around dec 10 onward!!!

[knocker]

The main difference at the end of the ecm run is this morning's run shows increased amplification of the Aleutian ridge across the pole and the slight regression of the Newfoundland low forcing the Azores to amplify and ridge NW as the tough(s) tracking SE, to the east, move closer.

 

Edited November 26, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The main difference at the end of the ecm run is this morning's run shows increased amplification of the Aleutian ridge across the pole and the slight regression of the Newfoundland low forcing the Azores to amplify and ridge NW as the tough(s) tracking SE, to the east, move closer.

 

Ecm looks isolated at 144 though compared to ukmo/gfs so although it looks nice i will hold fire until ens come out, but if ecm is correct then increasingly colder as we head through the first week of December....