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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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Answering the E'ly question and essentially impossible to say. Given longer term signal for northern blocking then would suggest it's a greater possibility than  compared with 12 months back...

Mainly all I want to say is don't get caught up on individual model runs, despite many doing. At the moment the medium and longer term is highly uncertain and anything could crop up, as exampled by the spread in the 12z GEFS

Regards, Matt. 

IMG_4768.GIF

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4 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Answering the E'ly question and essentially impossible to say. Given longer term signal for northern blocking then would suggest it's a greater possibility than  compared with 12 months back...

Mainly all I want to say is don't get caught up on individual model runs, despite many doing. At the moment the medium and longer term is highly uncertain and anything could crop up, as exampled by the spread in the 12z GEFS

Regards, Matt. 

IMG_4768.GIF

Thank you very much, yep definitely much better than last Decembers 'weather nightmare'.

:)

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23 hours ago, knocker said:

A pleasant start to December

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.png

 
 
 
 

Supposedly replying to Matt's post above and not Knocker's knock above at colder weather through D6 to D10 timescales, but the Beeb are showing an Easterly is likely as soon as this coming Monday, not a cold one initially, of course. Thereafter, who knows but currently we have a chance of an extended period of HP influence or a flow from NW to NE, only time will tell. It won't be mild and there is still no sign of a rampant Atlantic. All good news for coldies. Ditch jumping on every run and put more trust in the 0z and the 12zs is what I say.

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18 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

big diffrences over canada on ecm. wonder where this will lead to.

the model struggling to resolve the amplification right around the NH. difficult to know which direction it will take although broadly we stay with the same outcome !

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close but no cigar on the ecm. if the high was just slightly stronger and that low went under the block rather then ramp up and sweep it away it would be a good run. not much needs to change for that to happen so no prozac needed just yet

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3 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes, we must keep our spirits up! GEFS 11-15 day forecast:

"Northerly flow directed at Scandinavia around main #polarvortex center suggests #cold weather for Northern Europe soon after #winter starts."
Dr. Cohen.

Cohen tweet GEFS forecast anom 25Nov.jpg

 

Which transposed to the surface means :shok:

gefs_t2ma_5d_eur_61.png

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ECM is as dreadful as it gets tonight with the UK thrust into very very mild air post day 8-

There hasnt been 1 decent cold outlook from the ECM since it landed this week & it  has thus far easily pegged the GFS which has continually backtracked on any cold-

The only crumb of comfort is all the mildness comes day 9 / 10 with opportunity of change to a colder blocked high still flagging at 168...

very poor couple of days models....

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At one point in the ECM you had a chance for the Scandi high but too much energy then spills over the top after T168hrs.

Quite remarkable to see the PV not in its normal position and yet still the UK's forcefield against cold manages to stay intact for the last few weeks, at T240hrs the ECM has a lot more amplification developing over the east Pacific but this will take some time to remove the hideous pattern from the Atlantic.

I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those ECM ensembles show temps in the high teens given the blow torch warmth heading in from the tropics around the Euro high.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

How..so?Looks..like..a..zonal..onslaught..incoming....very+NAO..setting-up..for..Dec..

The run is definitely better than this mornings ECM. Very finely balanced between good and bad.

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As Steve points out our hopes re a blocking high are flagging at T168hrs and that's the last chance saloon, that's the point in which we can pull back from the brink and avoid the blowtorch warmth that will happen if some energy doesn't head se rather than just ne.

Keep an eye on the ECM ensembles to see if theres any mileage and if we see a cluster bringing in some colder conditions to De Bilt around day 8.

Its a shame that upstream amplification in the Pacific is going to come too late and indeed as that works east its likely to pull that troughing to the west further ne then north so to get to anything interesting from day ten of the ECM operational theres likely to be a spell of very mild conditions before that.

The ECM unfortunately seems to be settling down and is more consistent than the GFS which isn't want we want to see. So its down to that T168 to T192hrs, if you like cold start praying that we see some trough disruption to support the high getting further north.

Which reminds me what time is the late evening mass at Lourdes?!

 

 

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