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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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1 minute ago, Minus 10 said:

 

How does this help anyone! No charts, good run, bad run. No wonder the forum is like a giant rollercoaster! Good job there are some REAL experts in here.

So sorry.

I hadn't noticed the poster was from the Czech Republic where it is indeed a good run.

Nick has explained why it is not a good run for long term prospects with the vortex regrouping towards Greenland.

Don't worry it'll change in 12 hours.

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Well all I'd say with regard to people perhaps feeling a bit deflated:

nao.jpg

Two weeks ago the NAO was forecast to be at below -3 around now..

nao.sprd2.gif

 

As things stand, it's not even below -1. So the forecast is way, way out. I made the point a while back that all those nice charts never got any closer than around day 9/10, and lo and behold, it's been proven right. Moral of the story - don't get too carried away with eye candy forecasts that are out in the distance. Chances are you may well be let down! :)

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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

So sorry.

I hadn't noticed the poster was from the Czech Republic where it is indeed a good run.

Nick has explained why it is not a good run for long term prospects with the vortex regrouping towards Greenland.

Don't worry it'll change in 12 hours.

Me niether. I aint worried, can't post charts right now, but from what I've seen things still look ok. The northerly could still come to fruition as per gem. Still time for it to swing back. Longer term though, Dec still looks blocked. Would rather land the goodies mid to late Dec anyway. Lets get any downgrades out the way now and get all the upgrades at the right time. :) Now off to work :nonono:

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6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well all I'd say with regard to people perhaps feeling a bit deflated:

nao.jpg

Two weeks ago the NAO was forecast to be at below -3 around now..

nao.sprd2.gif

 

As things stand, it's not even below -1. So the forecast is way, way out. I made the point a while back that all those nice charts never got any closer than around day 9/10, and lo and behold, it's been proven right. Moral of the story - don't get too carried away with eye candy forecasts that are out in the distance. Chances are you may well be let down! :)

If you had access to the ECM data you would be less disappointed-  I did post that the ECM AO forecasts were much less excitable than the GEFS.  As far as the NAO is concerned, forecasting the pressure patterns in the North Atlantic is even more unpredictable although again , ECM eps data has proved more reliable to our west. 

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57 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I disagree. I think it's a shocker!

Probably the worst operational in a long time?

Of course you are kidding ?................................rewind 12 months and have a look at the charts that were on offer.

ECM offers dry for a start, frost and fog in places , a block which as we know can be corrected to a more favourable position further down the line.

There is no Atlantic train which is the best starting point  

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Oh I'm not disappointed at all - done this model watching game for far too long now to get suckered into believing the apocalypse is coming!
I don't have access to masses of data unfortunately, only what is free and posted on here. Either way, the good thing is it's only the last week of November, and we have 12 good weeks coming up to hit the bull's-eye. It promises to be better than previous years, and that's a great start. More runs are needed as usual - as John Hammond alluded to last night, there is much uncertainty with the way things stand at present.

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32 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If you had access to the ECM data you would be less disappointed-  I did post that the ECM AO forecasts were much less excitable than the GEFS.  As far as the NAO is concerned, forecasting the pressure patterns in the North Atlantic is even more unpredictable although again , ECM eps data has proved more reliable to our west. 

The current ECM looks favourable for an attempt at an easterly after 168 hours (annoyingly the op doesn't go on to show it though) - could you let us know if a few of the EPS go on to deliver?  Seems like there's a growing possibility of a mid month attack from the East - which would chime with Stuart's hints from a few days ago and something you mentioned too I think. The main issue with easterlies is that they are even more of a nightmare for the models than Greenland highs!

:)

Edited by beng

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I think once the GFS northerly is put to bed once and for all, our next potential stab at some cold is not too far off - day 7 in fact when some models try to suck the high north westwards

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Could potentially lead to a Icelandic / Scandi High.

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16 minutes ago, beng said:

The current ECM looks favourable for an attempt at an easterly after 168 hours (annoyingly the op doesn't go on to show it though) - could you let us know if a few of the EPS go on to deliver?  Seems like there's a growing possibility of a mid month attack from the East - which would chime with Stuart's hints from a few days ago and something you mentioned too I think. The main issue with easterlies is that they are even more of a nightmare for the models than Greenland highs!

:)

Tough to say from the mean/anomoly charts - only ian and Matt on here have cluster access I think. It certainly can't be discounted judging by the output.  Once meteociel updates, it may be easier to see any possible easterly on the 850 spreads days 8-10.

i have to restate that I cannot remember the last time I saw the eps drop a consistent signal so quickly  as they have done with the low anomoly that was due beginning dec. the upper ridge for eastern Canada/GIN sea area almost completely removed which seems due to an upper trough becoming established over Greenland as a notable segment of the vortex moves to nw of Greenland. again, totally unforecast by the model on its mean/anomoly. 

Edited by bluearmy

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Nice looking wintry charts from the American Models this morning, especially the GEM. Looks like GFS going along this route with lower heights over Europe and a trough dropping towards the UK  heralding a cold NEly. Of course the ECM shows a different picture with much higher pressure over the near continent and possible westerly flow to develop across the Northern half of the UK. However, looking at the UKMO , I thinks its longer term view ( post 144hours ) is more towards the American evolution or possible somewhere in between. So compared to last year we must be heartened by these more seasonal charts. In the shorter time span some more hard frosts in the Northern half of the UK and a much colder day for the south on Sunday and Monday as they draw some much colder surface air from the continent with minus -5 c 850mb level flow not far away to the east.

 C

GEMOPEU00_240_1.png

Edited by carinthian

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By far the most interesting output today is the wayward GEM, if you look at its pattern it's broadly similar in the early stages to the ECM, the difference being the degree of amplitude to that shortwave to the west that occurs between T120 and T168 hrs in response to the pattern across the central/east USA.

The UKMO remains the flattest solution although it's backtracked somewhat from yesterday evening where it blew up that low to the south of Greenland.

The GFS continues to go it alone!

I'd say at this point that for coldies anything but the UKMO still offers scope whereby a few tweaks could result in something more interesting, the UKMO at T144hrs already looks like past the point of no return IMO.

I think it's clear that relatively minor changes on a global scale are leading to larger than normal impacts later, as you can see from the handling of shortwave activity to the west of the UK.

In terms of weighting the solutions I think the ECM given its better recent record in the key area over the Atlantic is the more likely solution. The rest are fighting over second place for the time being.

Edited by nick sussex

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Very ordinary (as far as wintry prospects are concerned) ECM ensemble mean day 10 chart.

EDH1-240.GIF

 

 

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

By far the mo. s highg output today is the waywathat.therd GEM, if you look at its pattern it's broadly similar in the early stages to the ECM, the difference being the degree of amplitude to that shortwave to the west that occurs between T120 and T168 hrs in response to the pattern across the central/east USA.

The UKMO remains the flattest solution although it's backtracked somewhat from yesterday evening where it blew up that low to the south of Greenland.

The GFS continues to go it alone!

I'd say at this point that for coldies anything but the UKMO still offers scope whereby a few tweaks could result in something more interesting, the UKMO at T144hrs already looks like past the point of no return IMO.

I think it's clear that relatively minor changes on a global scale are leading to larger than normal impacts later, as you can see from the handling of shortwave activity to the west of the UK.

In terms of weighting the solutions I think the ECM given its better recent record in the key area over the Atlantic is the more likely solution. The rest are fighting over second place for the time being.

That Preety much bang on the money (post) nick.

The solution Is more or less resolved I think upto 96 hrs cross model.

However' I'D still expect vast (perhaps divergance In coming suites beyond that.

A whole array of solution/evolutions may well begin to rear beyond that.then the picture for mid month 'SHOULD' be a little clearer.

Lets see what todays output has on offer first.

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17 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Very ordinary (as far as wintry prospects are concerned) ECM ensemble mean day 10 chart.

EDH1-240.GIF

 

 

And the extended eps show an AO fluctuating 0 to +1. Not sure I can remember a run being positive in the extended period (spike apart) for quite a while (though it's not like it shows anything notably positive)

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Seen as we're pages and pages of data is there any chance of a new feed for the 06z?? 

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1 minute ago, marksiwnc said:

Seen as we're pages and pages of data is there any chance of a new feed for the 06z?? 

It's still rolling out, but to day 5 it keeps the UK below average, temperature wise and thereafter it looks to turn the heat up and put the UK comfortably above average for the time of year. I guess another 15 minutes until it has rolled out completely. 

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I think we're slowly edging towards model agreement. It's very unlikely that we're going to see a quick northerly and the trend now seems to be digging the jet further south off the ne USA and developing high pressure near or to the north of the UK. Whether this high can get far enough north to develop a colder feed is a wait and see. 

 

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think we're slowly edging towards model agreement. It's very unlikely that we're going to see a quick northerly and the trend now seems to be digging the jet further south off the ne USA and developing high pressure near or to the north of the UK. Whether this high can get far enough north to develop a colder feed is a wait and see. 

 

Thats a very generous resume Nick, the Nh profile looks dreadful and is going downhill at a rate of knots!its difficult to see a way out of this inpending pattern as it stands...

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The developments over the last week prove that weather cannot be forecast beyond about 7 days.

To be fair Ian and GP always advise that it's a trend at most. 

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a very generous resume Nick, the Nh profile looks dreadful and is going downhill at a rate of knots!its difficult to see a way out of this inpending pattern as it stands...

Okay, it isn't great from day 5 onwards, but towards day 10 it does gives the chance of average or to below average temperature from it, but for sure there is no extreme cold on it.

Still seems messy after day 6 to me though and I wouldn't be surprised to see it changing again the next run. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think we're slowly edging towards model agreement. It's very unlikely that we're going to see a quick northerly and the trend now seems to be digging the jet further south off the ne USA and developing high pressure near or to the north of the UK. Whether this high can get far enough north to develop a colder feed is a wait and see. 

 

Actually the trend is more for the high to be to the south of the UK surely?

Poor GFS rolling out now!

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think we're slowly edging towards model agreement. It's very unlikely that we're going to see a quick northerly and the trend now seems to be digging the jet further south off the ne USA and developing high pressure near or to the north of the UK. Whether this high can get far enough north to develop a colder feed is a wait and see. 

 

I feel the same ,think this is what bbc mentioned last night with guidance from met office , its going to be a tough bit of model watching , if the jet does dig south that opens up some good coldie synoptics  or to our north different again ,or perhaps the middle ground .

not a very technical post ,but we are in limbo along with the models i feel ,half expecting a sudden flood of charts all singing together , cheers gang ,catch you all up later .

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The developments over the last week prove that weather cannot be forecast beyond about 7 days.

Agreed, which is why what might look uninspiring at day 7+ now, in 7 days time is likely to look completely different. It could look fantastically cold, or it could look like last year ***shudder***.

Lack of posts on the GFS 06Z this morning speaks volumes for it's contents. No point even posting a chart as it's fairly similar to the 0Z run within the reliable, after which it comes up with yet another different pattern.

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Actually the trend is more for the high to be to the south of the UK surely?

Poor GFS rolling out now!

Poor is an understatement - it's horrific!!  Euro high sets up shop and stays put like it usually does!

I think we need to reign in expectations for the first half of December.  The longer range models are hinting at height rises to the north so hope is still very much alive.

 

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