Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

A rather poor GFS this afternoon with a very active jet - looks very different to UKMO at 144 though so hopefully ukmo will be closer to the mark!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

GFS much flatter ..

I certainly wouldn't call it poor ....................take yourself back 12 months, that was poor

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Don't fall into the trap of seeing pink colours and thinking 'oh, snow'. We see this time and again from the EURO4. If we look at the corresponding precipitation for 6AM there is barely any over most of central and west Mids at that time

Places like the Lincs Wolds and southern and eastern peaks may do OK for a few cm though.

Oh I know crew be nice to see a few flakes 

[gottolovethisweather]

14 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

hmm....In house NMM rather downplays the snow signals in the short term for the vast majority of the UK....dewpoints the wrong side of marginal for most, leaving only  The Penines the Southern Uplands of Scotland & naturally highland Scotland in the firing line, most of N England and the central belt of Scotland seeing a cold rain or rain/sleet mix....certainly different to the Euro 4 hi-res output for the same time period which has wintry ppn as far south as the Peak District and not exclusively (but mainly) to high ground.....which one will be right?

 

Hi AJ,

It'll be down to the wire and a nowcast for some, no doubt. FWIW, BBC forecast earlier stated East Midlands as a likely place for some of the white stuff. Pennines and NE the only other areas in England being worthy of mention. Nonetheless, it's only the 8th of November so it'll be a pleasant surprise for many NOT expecting winter autumn to bite just yet. 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

11 minutes ago, andymusic said:

Euro 4 is showing potential falls for quite a bit of the east midlands around 6am - peak cold hour - the beeb are going for that too

euro 4 12z

 

Indeed. Just stated that myself. Should be interesting. Best move back to broader model output discussion (although, I'm not helping things) I assume there is a wintry potential thread somewhere on here. Also, can somebody direct me to the winter forecasts thread by DM me.

[vase1234]

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Certainly is nice to see Frosty, like you say hopefully the first of many. Nice graphic display of how, when, where and how much. Just goes to show what a difference it makes once you've got the cold in so to speak. As always nicely backed up by charts Karl.

Not a non event then karlos

12z dropped the GH in FI?

[Summer Sun]

GEM shows a mix of milder and colder air from the end of the week

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016110712/ECM1-120.GIF?07-0

 

I think this is good.  On we go, no Atlantic train and we build forward

 

BFTP

[tight isobar]

-yes' Certainly a more mobile/ttypical autumnal westerly regime from around mid'month...

However as the last frames of ecm should "well" show' this is highly likely a short lived occurance.

[karlos1983]

21 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

Not a non event then karlos

12z dropped the GH in FI?

Crikey we still on that 

doesnt seem to have dropped it to me, just a variation of the theme. 

 

 

[karlos1983]

Location location location, the PV is about to go on holiday on ECM 

[bradymk]

Last few ECM charts just trickling out. Although each run is slightly different atm,  what both GFS and ECM do clearly show is as we move after mid month, heights rise to our north west, the flow becoming much more meridional and what looks a very weak vortex. Some eye candy FI runs will soon be appearing I think....

Paris had its first snow this morning and some low land northern and eastern U.K. could see there's next few days...a good start

[Methuselah]

This is like the Good Old Days - anything post five-days is a mystery. And, given that the only predictable weather we ever get is mildish mush, we have a plethora of different outcomes to consider?

Will I see snow tomorrow? I doubt it very much. But - farther down the line - and as long as the PFJ continues to meander - well, who knows?

[Duane S.]

Best prospects for many a year. To be at this stage of the season with the vortex as weak as it is (and indeed looks to be for a while) is a very good thing indeed. The 12z ECM would go on to produce very nice charts I suspect.

It is very likely that going through the second of of November and into December (and beyond) that a colder airmass than the norm will drop well down and stick around in the mid-latitudes (notwithstanding it is hardly warm outside right now). But of course we are in the UK, here it is all about loading the dice. Whatever happens, we will always need some luck. When those windows of opportunities do arise (and they do every winter) we often need to throw a double 6, I get the feeling that, just as in 09/10 and early '10, there will be a few of those opportunities whereby just throwing anything higher than a 7 will suffice :-)

Interesting weeks ahead I think...

[Spah1]

This is very promising from Fergie

"GloSea continues it's path to resurrect the blocked theme later November and on through December... whilst the signal for an extraordinarily weak stratospheric PV remains an underpinning and noteworthy theme"

Hopefully charts similar to this, and better will start to pop up at we get closer to Mid month.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Banbury said:

I certainly wouldn't call it poor ....................take yourself back 12 months, that was poor

Haha yes you are correct Banbury, in comparison to ecm and ukmo 144 its flat as a pancake though, thats what i was  getting at.

ECM looks full of potential with the PV getting pushed towards scandy, thats what we want to see !

PS I don't like to think about this time last year

[Captain Shortwave]

Well for once the ECM op is pretty representative of the ensemble output at the moment;

ECM op

 

GEFs for the same time

Clear trend to build a ridge in the western Atlantic with a trough developing close to the UK, the positioning of this trough of course is crucial as being east of the UK could offer a northerly blast whilst of course further west it would be simply wet. Either way a pretty impressive block developing and being maintained over Russia, I think the term ominous comes to mind, it also appears the whilst we do see a more mobile regime take hold beyond the next few days it does appear that the low heights over Greenland will tend to move away as opposed to being omnipresent like the last few winters. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM says big build of heights to your west.... leading to ridge to Greenland.  The Atlantic is not in sight.....but it is FI...though the trend is looking solid and supportive

 

BFTP

[sorepaw1]

Good evening all. I'm expecting this post to get moved. As I need some help finding regional forecasts. I've had Hail and snow showers on and off all afternoon and have pics. I'm using a smart phone.  And I'm newish to the this impressive  site.  I have over 30 years forecasting experience and remember the winters of 1981. 1987.1991.1995. 2010..if I can add that in most of these years winter started early November .today's 12z gfs is a  typical run not boring by any means. If we're all honest 1 month ago none off us would of expected a met office warning for heavy snow in early November .

It only seems a few days ago I was basking in my back garden and getting my beer belly sun burnt drinking strong Dutch beer and insulting the neighbours lol.

[blizzard81]

Great to see those cold uppers advancing south across Scotland on day 10 of the ecm and the plus 12 uppers marching northwards up the eastern seaboard of the US. Such a welcome change

[vase1234]

14 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

This is very promising from Fergie

"GloSea continues it's path to resurrect the blocked theme later November and on through December... whilst the signal for an extraordinarily weak stratospheric PV remains an underpinning and noteworthy theme"

Hopefully charts similar to this, and better will start to pop up at we get closer to Mid month.

He has also stressed it depends where the blocks setup.

Does that chart show cold and snow or just cold rain for lower ground.

[Man With Beard]

Just to add to CS and BFTP above - seems to me the Azores High is to edge even further west by D10. Pretty conclusive in the clusters. That seriously opens the door for a push of heights towards Greenland by D12/D13 if the jet plays ball. I note three rebel GEFS members that bring a finger of heights into Europe at that time - sometimes such runs are the trendsetters but for the moment they remain background noise.

Even more interesting is that, by T360, not a single GEFS member has a proper polar vortex in place. Now that is odd.This is just the time of year (22 November), and the kind of situation, where the PV should pounce and establish itself. And besides, you would expect the GEFS members to be geared towards that outcome in some way. But no. They are a tale of utter confusion. I don't even need to cherry pick a chart to post because they are all equally disorganised. So here's one just for fun

You have to ask - if the PV isn't going to get in shape soon ... just when will it??

 

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, vase1234 said:

He has also stressed it depends where the blocks setup.

 

At least there will be a block (s)..unlike last year / early this year..

Edited November 7, 2016 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Encouraging end to the Ecm 12z with further cold air to the NW incoming, synoptically it looks good..for coldies, I hope I'm going to be saying that a lot during the weeks / months ahead!

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, vase1234 said:

He has also stressed it depends where the blocks setup.

Does that chart show cold and snow or just cold rain for lower ground.

 

Potential !! That's the bit you don't get, but really you do get. Your clearly on a windup. 

Edited November 7, 2016 by karlos1983

[bryan629]

24 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Good evening all. I'm expecting this post to get moved. As I need some help finding regional forecasts. I've had Hail and snow showers on and off all afternoon and have pics. I'm using a smart phone.  And I'm newish to the this impressive  site.  I have over 30 years forecasting experience and remember the winters of 1981. 1987.1991.1995. 2010..if I can add that in most of these years winter started early November .today's 12z gfs is a  typical run not boring by any means. If we're all honest 1 month ago none off us would of expected a met office warning for heavy snow in early November .

It only seems a few days ago I was basking in my back garden and getting my beer belly sun burnt drinking strong Dutch beer and insulting the neighbours lol.

here you go