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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Loving the longevity of cold in Central Europe on this one. :cold:

ECM0-144 (2).gif

ECM0-240 (1).gif

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12 minutes ago, ribster said:

How anyone can say any particular model has this nailed is beyond me...

As for consistency I think some need to check the runs from the same time and compare with the same time run previous days...

It's EC that has been pretty consistent up until 144h, then the next day you can see minor differences with the +120h which of course create major differences the next days

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

But it still looks like the proper cold EARLY December is an oiutlier solution, onwards to mid December.

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Well the Ecm 12z looks anticyclonic throughout although the high gets pushed and pulled this way and that it stays generally in control apart from across the far north and east at times. It looks a benign fine outlook for most of the uk during the next 10 days with some sunshine, variable cloud amounts, overnight frosts and fog where skies clear.

24_mslp500.png

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96_mslp500.png

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Thank you, ECM: my teddies will live to see another day!:friends:

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A much more believable case for the 'W. Atlantic trough, U.K. Ridge' version of the future from ECM this evening; given the background forcing it makes sense to have any highs in our vicinity trying repeatedly to gain some latitude. 

The contrast with GFS' mid-Atlantic ridges and Sceuro troughs is incredible for a disagreement starting at just 6 days range - but with GFS adding that shortwave on its 12z and how that led to a bombing low to our west, one could interpret this as the model attempting to correct toward ECM but being unable to go very far due to the way it's already set up a trough close to our NE.

As for UKMO, while suspiciously progressive it does have the same broad ideas as ECM so I suppose that makes it those two versus GFS (while GEM goes off experimenting with dangerous substances).

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As much as it's so frustrating trying to get a Greenland high, the one thing that has stood as we head into winter is the high is just bouncing around the UK as opposed to sinking. You have to feel it is only a matter of time this side of Christmas that an opportunity will appear and voila winter will arrive from the north! I don't mind the old fog & frost early doors as long as our patience is rewarded. It does feel like an age though that we have been waiting for something decent to come closer in terms of cold & snow chances (for the whole of the UK, not just the northern hills). But we still have to remember it's not even Winter yet. Maybe the Greenland High Christmas Lotto Jackpot will be won by the UK the week before Christmas...:drinks:

snow.jpg

Edited by Minus 10

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

Who can be confident in the longer term?

On the 4th of December, we are getting Gales, mild south westerlies and a chilly high all in the same day

GFSOPEU12_240_1.pngGEMOPEU12_240_1.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.png

It's a difficult job being a forecaster with so much disagreement between the models..still, looking ahead  it shows  seasonal weather at least compared to last December's very warm and very wet.

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Who can be confident in the longer term?

On the 4th of December, we are getting Gales, mild south westerlies and a chilly high all in the same day

GFSOPEU12_240_1.pngGEMOPEU12_240_1.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.png

lol,and we need another one to add and we will have four seasons in one day....a Spanish plume:rofl:

Edited by Allseasons-si

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Who can be confident in the longer term?

On the 4th of December, we are getting Gales, mild south westerlies and a chilly high all in the same day

GFSOPEU12_240_1.pngGEMOPEU12_240_1.pngECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Without wanting to say the obvious but that is what you expect in the longer term, there will always be differences in the longer term regarding details of each run

You can tell which one is the GFS on them charts, its so much of a outlier could it be right? I very much doubt it, its just does not handle anything well with perhaps the exception being Atlantic based weather. ECM has been more consistent with its flatter evolution and going by tonights UKMO, that is the way we are heading.

Can something more cold/snowy happen down the line? Of course but I suspect you be looking at the long term for that.

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20 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM...Looks...dry+cold.....:cold:

As was the infancy of that frigid period (1947), not drawing any parallel really - which kicked off by HP in the vicinity of the UK by going polewards a wee bit similar to ECMSomething like this Nick S would be quite satisfactory. :clap: 

image.pngimage.png

 

image.pngimage.png

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One thing the models do agree on is a large poleward ridge developing in the North Pacific. Showing well on the EPS and GEFS. Below is tonight's 240 EC Op anomaly, pretty prominent feature building in the Pacific.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but a North Pacific poleward ridge a potential teleconnector to a GH ridge down the line? 

IMG_3184.PNG

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2 minutes ago, Barry Reynolds said:

When is the EC Monthly due out? I thought it was today, but not seen any mention of it.

Check back around 22:00 should be out between then and 23:00

Edited by Summer Sun

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44 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Here is a netweather guide on this very subject, so your answer can be found in there. Put simply; it is where the divergence begins between the individual member runs (29th/30th I'd suggest in your example), which determines where FI begins and where it's at which timeframe its's greatest deviation is shown is where folks should order the truckload of salt. In my case, I hope the salt is most definitely necessary this winter, and from the attached graph central Europe looks like needing that truck, and a bit sharpish! :cold:

Thanks gtltw; that only reinforces my point - when divergence is that close to the present, and is that sharp, trying to predict further out than the 1st is an endeavour for the couragous or daft!

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Day 5 and 6 fax charts for the USA, looks more like the GFS output, certainly nothing like the UKMO horror show.

9lhwbg_conus.gif9mhwbg_conus.gif

They also do NH ones which come out a bit later.

 

Edited by nick sussex

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