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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16


phil nw.

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37 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm not anything like as knowledgeable as many here, but I have been following these discussions for a few years, in addition to which, I have a science background so am perhaps used to making a general assessment of tranches of data.  To me, the xdivergence seems to appear around December 1st, and iss pronounced by the 34d.  Based on what I was once told by someone here (I can't recall who it was - might have been John Holmes), FI is the point at which the models diverge markedly, which would suggest it's currently around the 2nd-3rd.

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Here is a netweather guide on this very subject, so your answer can be found in there. Put simply; it is where the divergence begins between the individual member runs (29th/30th I'd suggest in your example), which determines where FI begins and where it's at which timeframe its's greatest deviation is shown is where folks should order the truckload of salt. In my case, I hope the salt is most definitely necessary this winter, and from the attached graph central Europe looks like needing that truck, and a bit sharpish! :cold:

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Hi all, very rarely post on here but follow the rollercoaster every year in search of a uk snow fix.

The Models as they are at the mo reminded me of a time a few years back (possibly 2009/2010) when all other models were saying no chance and the GFS being the only model to predict correctly at distance.  Think it was literally a couple of days if not one day before that the other models switched and jumped on board.

Not saying this is what is happening now, and like I said, it was some time back so I could be remembering it all wrong. Would be interesting if anyone else remembers this happening re our current situation!

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7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm not anything like as knowledgeable as many here, but I have been following these discussions for a few years, in addition to which, I have a science background so am perhaps used to making a general assessment of tranches of data.  To me, the xdivergence seems to appear around December 1st, and iss pronounced by the 34d.  Based on what I was once told by someone here (I can't recall who it was - might have been John Holmes), FI is the point at which the models diverge markedly, which would suggest it's currently around the 2nd-3rd.

I think you're bang on about 2-3 December. Using Central Europe again as an example here are the 12z ensembles for Warsaw. Real spread come 2-3 December. But plenty of members in the snow row! :)

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0 (1).png

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How anyone can say any particular model has this nailed is beyond me...

As for consistency I think some need to check the runs from the same time and compare with the same time run previous days...

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This is much better from the ECM, we at least have something to work with from here. Its quite a big step forward from this mornings mush at 216. Nice bit of trough disruption, could do with it backing north west a few hundred miles

 

IMG_3776.PNG

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Well at T216hrs we have the chance of a Scandi high looking at the upstream pattern. Also the shortwave forming at the base of the troughing, if that goes towards Iberia then game on.

The ECM would look even better without you know what to the north at T192hrs, it begins with an S!

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Big difference between yesterday's +216 (bottom) and today's +192 (top) and a big improvement. That trough to the west of us digging very far south. Still disagreements earlier on between GFS and ECM regarding Greenland and the GFS northerly but at least ECM is looking much better than before, even if the GFS northerly next week does turn out to be incorrect.

High pressure in charge with definite potential for heights to then continue building further north and east of the UK as we go further on...

IMG_3181.GIF

IMG_3182.GIF

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Ecm not bad at all at 216 hrs,get that WAA pumped up into Iceland and beyond,we could end up with a cut off hp

ECH1-216.GIF.png

no sign of the Atlantic barreling in on this run so a step in the right direction,240 hrs cold and frosty but FL of cause.

ECH1-240.GIF.png

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9 minutes ago, ribster said:

How anyone can say any particular model has this nailed is beyond me...

As for consistency I think some need to check the runs from the same time and compare with the same time run previous days...

Agree 100%, Ribster. Sometimes I even begin to wonder if a few folks think the models actually make the weather!:D

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