Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Johnp]

Ironically, 12z GFS is turning into a cracking run in the long term!

[jvenge]

Well, is it a downgrade? Yes. However, it is worth keeping in mind that the UK will be enjoying a few decent cold spells between now and the next week and you don't really know what comes after. Sometimes people, I think, are looking too far ahead and ignore what is just around the corner. The cold spells coming are really nothing to be sniffed at.

 

 

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Now aren't these based at least in part on the very same GFS Runs?

Yes - however with the zonal mean outlook 60N you would expect less volatility from a 'means' averaged around the globe-

From the ECM EPS data I have gleened the euro have been tracking negative like the GFS however only slighty negative where as the GFS went for a full reversal of winds- this difference is also portrayed as the AO ensembles & again the GFS up to around 3 days ago had deep negativity - however the last 48 hours of so has seen the whole AO signal move to the EC means of 'just slightly negative' -

Really based on that form & the very recent GFS greenland blocking forecast that failed + the fact its number 2 performing model ( often 3 ) really should have indicated that unless the ECM was on board then it wasnt going to happen-

Still time for reversal of trending but the reality of this afternoon hasnt been so great..

[Methuselah]

How does today's 12Z compare to yesterday's 12Z, I wonder? Surely, if we're to draw any real conclusions, we ought to at least compare like with like?

[daz_4]

Looks like the warming in the strat dissapeared at the end of the run compared to yesterday.

 

 

[WINTRY WALES]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

How does today's 12Z compare to yesterday's 12Z, I wonder? Surely, if we're to draw any real conclusions, we ought to at least compare like with like?

I've never really understood the say so rule to this. Unless whichever run obtains more or less information than any of the others? For example if the 12z received the same amount info as the 6z and so on through the day then surely they are more accurate than comparing with the same run 24 hours earlier?

[Mucka]

32 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Certain people on this forum infuriate me, it's one run and it's not even backtracked just because it doesn't show the ridiculous snowmaggedon from the 06z doesn't mean it's 'game over' 

 

Please get some perspective.

It would be wrong of people to say, "game over" certainly, but the "perspective" is that all the Operational output has moved away from cold so far this evening with GEM and UKMO moving toward ECM and GFS wavering - people get emotionally invested in the output so a little venting can be expected. An equal and opposite emotional reaction with little analysis is no more helpful in my humble opinion. I think it is all just a manifestation of the same disappointment anyway.

So on that note a little good news. GFS ensembles are not backtracking as yet, if anything they have slightly firmed up on a Northerly outbreak of sorts.

Let's all hope this saga has a few more twists yet and we all (cold fans) get what we want in the end. 

 

GFS control keeping the faith.

 

 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Mucka

[Day 10]

Watch the ECM flip now to a belting northerly just to clear things up!

Sometimes wish I didn't love snow so much, it's too bloody stressful!

COME ON ECM

[weatherguy]

Looking at the +240 of the gfs12z, as that's about the limit of any degree of certainty...

Same old story from the last couple of weeks of model-watching; Great NH pattern overall, looking at the completely battered PV and lack of any lobes hanging about over Greenland.  However, things just don't seem to be going our way in terms of laying a path for sustained UK cold - those slider lows firing off the eastern seaboard keep flattening the MLB in the atlantic and keep resetting the situation to one where we are looking at >+240h for "potential" routes to cold from x chart.  

Don't mean to be too downbeat, of course, this time last year we'd be pretty darn chuffed with charts like these, but in the short term I don't think it's looking likely things are going to fall into place for our tiny segment of the NH in the short-term.  Eagerly awaiting GP's predicted gamechanger, I need my fix of snow! 

 

Edit: Just want to add that this response isn't over this one run, it's a more general view of model watching over the last few days.

Edited November 24, 2016 by weatherguy

[Ravelin]

Just now, Minus 10 said:

Sometimes wish I didn't love snow so much, it's too bloody stressful!

It's not snow that's stressful. It's watching models. If we didn't have models we'd just go back the 'good old days' of "oh, hey, look, it's snowing".

[swfc]

So that was a suprise the 12z not repeating this mornings run !!!.Looking at the nhp i woudnt worry to much guys.Its still a case of the pv being smashed and east based.Not bad for late november imo and i remember Gp saying a few years ago you dont need the orange and reds to the north during blocking !!!!

 

 

[Seasonality]

This happened just yesterday folks. Insane 06z followed by more realistic 12z. Panic not.

[beefy201]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

It's not snow that's stressful. It's watching models. If we didn't have models we'd just go back the 'good old days' of "oh, hey, look, it's snowing".

And to be quite frank a lot of people would get a lot less stressed rather than thinking that models are the gospel and its going to happen. the met office do not show surface pressure chats beyond 5 days for a very good reason 

[Ali1977]

Control and ENS looking good at 192

Mean below

Edited November 24, 2016 by Ali1977

[joggs]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

So that was a suprise the 12z not repeating this mornings run !!!.Looking at the nhp i woudnt worry to much guys.Its still a case of the pv being smashed and east based.Not bad for late november imo and i remember Gp saying a few years ago you dont need the orange and reds to the north during blocking !!!!

 

 

Indeed some of the best setups for our little Island re cold and snow have involved a faint sliver of high pressure in the right position amongst a few lobes of the vortex.

I'll post some examples later when I'm home on laptop.

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

And to be quite frank a lot of people would get a lot less stressed rather than thinking that models are the gospel and its going to happen. the met office do not show surface pressure chats beyond 5 days for a very good reason 

Very true but the way I see it a lot of sport fans get stressed every time their team plays but that is a big part of the entertainment value.

Most of us are here rooting for team cold.

 

GFS short ensembles, much scatter from Nov 30th/Dec 1st

Edited November 24, 2016 by Mucka

[Paul_1978]

21 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

Looks like the warming in the strat dissapeared at the end of the run compared to yesterday.

 

 

Yes but they're T+372 and 384. We've been seeing brilliant 384 charts for weeks and they never happen. This isn't worth worrying about. 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

And to be quite frank a lot of people would get a lot less stressed rather than thinking that models are the gospel and its going to happen. the met office do not show surface pressure chats beyond 5 days for a very good reason 

Yes, the met office do not on National TV talk about the prospects for a month away for the very sa.....    whooooppps!!!!!

[pip22]

This morning GFS was modelled for a Arctic spell of weather and this run it is not. To be frank, this short road to deep cold may be over. But....BUT... the long road to deep cold isn't.  I think the models next few days will keep changing until it reaches a agreement hopefully a fair one for a good cold spell.

 

 

 

 

[knocker]

It's quite interesting to have a look at where, and why, the last two GFS det. runs digress.

At T144 they are practically identical. It is after this that the 06z sank the active trough to the north south suppressing the tongue of HP over the UK and in effect pushing it west. The 12z is having none of this and has phased in energy that has tracked SE from Newfoundland around the HP, with the cut off low to the south west, which reenergizes the HP to ridge and forms the trough in mid Atlantic which rapidly develops with some help from trough to the north In other words still struggling with handling the upstream forcing.

Edited November 24, 2016 by knocker

[EML Network]

Been donkeys ears since I posted on here. 

 

As always i've been coming here lurking, reading, chart watching, like many others. 

IMO We're in a much better position moving forward than the past few winters and the 12z run falls quite nicely in line with the Met O update from today, even into the medium range. 

 

Small sways either way will indeed make a lot of difference, but we could at the very least be in with a chance of some battleground type set up's, which may or may not be flash in the pan type events, I'd expect to see the ECM at least jump on board with the retrogressed High into the Mid Atlantic, which would at least open the door to a Northerly feed.

 

Thereafter it really is open to debate, as always with the UK we tend to need 2 or 3 bites at the cherry before we get what us coldies want, it's not often we strike lucky at the first time of asking and many of us have already seen more snow this time around than the whole of last winter. 

 

Lot's to play for and at least we're not sniffing around in FI just to find a potential hint of cold to come thereafter and it's not even December yet !!

 

Plenty to remain hopeful for if you are looking for cold.

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

In a nutshell a shortwave calamity!

The GFS even though better than the UKMO still manages to find another shortwave to spoil the outlook. The UKMO is now grim looking from a cold perspective and the GEM has swung to a completely different scenario from its 00hrs which supports my view that its a useless model.

The GFS could be better if that shortwave didn't deepen rapidly but just ran se , it at least has some scope the UKMO I'm afraid is utter crud.

Upstream in the USA the models disagree with the amplitude of that central USA troughing and this impacts any pressure rises towards Greenland.

Edited November 24, 2016 by nick sussex

[Ravelin]

GFS control still trying...

And then decides to give up and just remove the UK from the map...

[Frosty.]

11 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning-

upgrades all around today - GEM /UKMO in the ballpark for the 30th now- GFS still solid !

S

Those saying its game over..it isn't..The game doesn't even begin until Dec 1st..this was followed by a stonking 6z and plenty of Ensemble support so let's just keep calm, it's all to play for and the models dont look anything like as mild as last year..much more seasonal level playing field!

[tight isobar]

Certainly isn't over @frosty.

There is still divergence' and mass resolve upstream and placements. 

Its still an open book...but one that is coming to fruition fairly soon I suspect.