Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

To my eye gfs at 162 is following 6z cold a little further north east!

Yup I have to hand it to the GFS. T.144 is near enough identical to the 06z run. It looked like for a minute the NE seaboard / Atlantic lows were going to spoil the party.

Edited by Gavin Hannah

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Nick L said:

UKMO better, UKMO worse...GFS better, GFS worse...

Guys, how about we stop overanalysing minute details in every run, or at the very least wait until the entire run is out? The last 30-45 minutes of posts are so contradictory it's daft.

Truly the voice of reason, quite ridiculous the last few utterings 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Right then

GFS at day 6

gfsnh-0-144.png?12 gfsnh-0-150.png

Is not the same as the 06z in the sense that we see the jet continuing to run over the ridge hence the shallow low that develops and moves over the top in the following frames. The 06z has already cut the flow off allowing the low to sink south. GIven the other output you could suggest that perhaps the GFS is trending towards keeping that trough open which will reach a tipping point of going to the ECM (00z)/UKMO solution.

UKMO

UN144-21.GIF?24-17

We have a deep trough developing upstream and moves this slowly eastwards, very unlike the GFS.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yup, game over for any lowland snow in the first week of December, GFS fails again.

We now look further ahead when hopefully those tropical signals GP was alluding to start to show their hand in the output from the 2nd week onwards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfsnh-0-144.png?12UN144-21.GIF?24-17

GFS and UKMO completely different for the UK on this run.

GFS sticks to its guns, it was the first to pick up on retrogression to Greenland and always been the most bullish/consistent with a cold pattern for the UK.

 Im going to stick my neck out and say the GFS is on the money

gfsnh-12-156.png?12

What a fantastic start to winter if this verifies!

Watered down from the 06z, and perhaps will be further watered down than is currently shown, but surely this is plausible scenario, considering the GFS has been consistently showing this as have its ensemble means. If its not possible why is being predicted repeatedly from the GFS?

though yes, it remains not the most likely scenario, because of lack of cross model support,All eyes to the ECM....

 

Edited by Zakos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yup, game over for any lowland snow in the first week of December, GFS fails again.

We now look further ahead when hopefully those tropical signals GP was alluding to start to show their hand in the output from the 2nd week onwards.

 

Have you seen the whole output?  Coz at t.189 i'm looking at a very interesting LP feature about squeeze up the eastern side of Greenland and the snow risk charts are not too bad for lowland snow at this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yup, game over for any lowland snow in the first week of December, GFS fails again.

We now look further ahead when hopefully those tropical signals GP was alluding to start to show their hand in the output from the 2nd week onwards.

How can that be said when it's the 24th November, GFS could still be right yet... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gem has the low sliding over the top and breaking the link between the HP cells as well ala ECM and now UKMO . Looks like the GFS is maybe going to be on its own again.

gem-0-144.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes a downgrade from the 6z....but that wouldn't have been hard!!!

Not throwing in the towel just yet however. 

One can only ponder this evening's ecm...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Fretters said:

GFS showing some very mild temps from Iberia by 200 hours, well done to the METO for sticking with the milder outlook

Considering how much the models are struggling at around 120hr even before, think it would be silly to say METO have this is the bag at "200hrs". Don't you think? Anyway good to see GFS hasn't backtracked for meantime upto until the reliable 120-144hrs frame. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

It is unfortunate for us that each time the model on its own seems to be correct so long as it isn't showing cold, sods law.

It wouldn't surprise me if ECM moved toward GFS this evening, juts to twist the knife so to speak. :closedeyes:

Let's hope the next cold signal can get full cross model support, hopefully if this one has failed we won't have to wait too long for the next chase.

Chins up peeps! :snowman-emoji:

PS

(I don't think it's daft or over analyzing to point out one model has moved toward another - it is an important part of the discussion as to which way the models are trending.)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That's not what the charts show.. These emotionally driven responses to what is basically a forecast is bewildering.

UKM stops on the last day of November, Low pressure riding over a high and moving east will bring a northwesterly in it's wake. But looking at such detail at such range is basically a fools errand. 

If the UKMET at T+144 verifies, you are at least a week away from a cold shot which takes us into the 2nd week of December, so my response is not emotionally driven but based on what I perceive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well up to t.144 looks good and very consistent on the GFS. Let's see what the mods produce over the next few days as next weekend draws closer. As mentioned, it was never going to be difficult to 'downgrade' from the 06z output. That being said, anything beyond t.144 is still in the unreliable time frame so IMHO, game is still well and truly on. Now watch the ECM produce an absolute belter this evening!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 23/11/2016 at 14:11, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

It is very much a battle between the ECM and GFS tonight.  ECM is pumping much more energy into the higher latitudes beyond T+144 whereas GFS resists the higher energy and favours stronger height builds in crucial areas in and around Greenland.  The Greenland to Newfoundland region is the area that holds the key.  To be honest the differences are minimal and only very slight changes will alter the outcome thus slight sensitivities to the starting data in each model may be the cause for discrepancies between ECM and GFS at lead times beyond T+144.  ECM has been more consistent and bullish in building the extended ridging into the UK around the 1st week of December whereas the GFS has had a tendency to add increased incidences of  jumpiness in the possible outcomes.  Despite one models apparent consistency on modelling a particular synoptic over another it remains impossible to favour one solution over the other at this stage.

 

Following on from my thoughts a few days ago I now believe the eventual synoptic we will experience will be closer to the EC solution.  The overall trend is for poor EC ens performance beyond 29th with HRES often running outside the spread.  GFS ensemble performance has also been poor, although the signal for dramatically lower MSLP toward the end of the month has strengthened with a majority of the perturbations running with this lowering MSLP solution.  Of course, a lowering of MSLP does not necessarily correspond with cold temperatures.  GFS T850 ensembles have deviated hugely with vastly large deviation in spread across a suite of variables, again indicative of the jumpiness nature of the model at the minute.  Beginning of December W1 I have noticed the EC EM trending toward an anticyclonic regime across S England with lower height builds across the North.  On this basis, right now, with the guidance the way it is, I would have to go with a slight modification of the EC, closer to the EC EM with a W/NW flow and increasingly cool/cold showery regime (especially for N areas early in the period) and perhaps drier further South.  The vigorous Northerly of the GFS does not seem like the most likely option at present despite massive spread across both EC and GFS suites.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All 12z suite sees a considerable move to ECM 00z solution - UKMO + GEM are pretty much all the way, GFS is hanging on however has moved to ECM-

If the ECM verifies it will be the second time in 10 days the GFS has gone for some form of Greenland block ( & ENS ) & then reverted to ECM around the 144 mark-

very frustrating - not least of all because the GFS strat forecasting & zonal mean outlooks were underpinning It all & if we move to the ECM solution the 60N zonal mean will upspike TOWARDS normal ..

not great...

Now aren't these based at least in part on the very same GFS Runs?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^ TC

have you swallowed the NWP model wikipedia?

Edited by Steve Murr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z.pngukmintemp.png

Although not as mindblowing as the GFS 6z obviously ....The GFS 12Z still looks very promising for Fri 2nd Dec ( t 186 ) . Lets hope that the ECM moves a bit in this direction later on. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

If the UKMET at T+144 verifies, you are at least a week away from a cold shot which takes us into the 2nd week of December, so my response is not emotionally driven but based on what I perceive.

But will it verify? Maybe if the 168 chart for the UKM is posted later we can see where it's heading. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UN144-21.GIF?24-17gfsnh-0-144.png?12ECH1-144.GIF?24-12

There is a 12 hour difference from the ECM here, as the 12z has not come out yet, but i think there is more of a 3 way split at 144+

 In my opinion all models are struggling with the pattern and I believe each model would be vastly different at 240+

GFS certainly wants to build higher heights over Greenland than the other two, but the UKMO looks worse than both to me in this area.

Im not knowledgeable or experienced enough to give an accurate figure... but I have seen drastic turnarounds in the UK weather at just over 72 hours out from the models.

I would definitely say that at 144 hours out, there is too much uncertainty to say the GFS can be completely discounted just yet.

Edited by Zakos

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...