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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Sorry I have no idea how I managed that but the last post was not Fergieweathers question. Apologies Ian I am sure you would not need to ask such a basic question, but statistically and mathematically resetting verification stats does not make sense to me.

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Yes - phenomenal 06Z output upgraded from the 00Z cold starting to embed in as from now - should know better and not keep looking too far ahead but this forum could be slightly busy this time next week.

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6z again is very nice, let's hope the Ecm and gfs have atleast some sort of agreement later on.

Unbelievable differences, not seen anything like it before.

Roll on the 12z

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1 hour ago, Glacier Point said:

The GEFS and EPS could not be more different for week Friday for NW Europe. One says deep trough, the other moderate ridge.

What's Gp's thinking?

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5 minutes ago, joggs said:

What's Gp's thinking?

I think GP has made his stance clear on numerous occasions...and it's one which involves a N European trough...

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The GEFS 6z shows some support for the stonking operational with a cold / wintry early december with a nwly / nly arctic maritime airflow..cautious optimism and all that!:santa-emoji:

GFSOPEU06_264_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_264_2.png

GFSP02EU06_312_2.png

GFSP04EU06_264_2.png

GFSP10EU06_312_2.png

GFSP10EU06_336_2.png

GFSP13EU06_264_2.png

GFSP15EU06_264_2.png

GFSP18EU06_312_2.png

GFSP20EU06_240_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Broad scale, the GEFS is more likely to be the way December pans out. There may be timing issues here though as the ducks are not quite yet lined up. 

I'm looking for tropical convective wave to develop east of Indonesia and an attendant +ve mountain torque to develop as the necessary triggers to a truly cold pattern to embed. That's still a little way off just yet, so the choreography of the 06z GFS may be a little fast. My position 1st week of December would be for the UK in a mean trough with a broadly north of west flow, temps below average. The more extreme version advertised by the GFS 06z is plausible given the background drivers - extremely weak polar westerlies, massive disconnect between angular momentum and ENSO status, so I would not be keen to discount it, rather have it on my side as a second choice (particularly if you've already hedged this way some time ago).

That's going to send this place into meltdown.......

 

A clear head is needed over the next few day's, GFS will no doubt not be as good this afternoon, & ECM might or might not be as bad as this mornings run. What ever the case, GP's comments along with Matt Hugo, Ian F & Bluearmy are all pointing to an a vastly improved Winter out look compared to the last 3-4 Winters.

 

Fun & exciting times ahead methinks...

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Personally I think on tonight's output we will see the gfs12z move towards the ecm evolution. The ecm will then move towards the gfs06z output. And as we get nearer the time we will see a half way house situation between the output.

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Cant wait until Matthew and Anthony's seasonal winter forecast, wish it would be up this afternoon.

Talking of NW winter forecasters, wonder if we will ever hear from Edward again.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I find it very very odd (In a great way) after the bbc forecast last night coupled with today's output thus far and positive posts from the pros that something defiantly is brewing. Remembers 2009-2010 snow documentary!

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I'd be willing to put my neck on the line and say widespread snow showers moving well inland  are a real possibility for next weekend. Given that today's 06z is nothing new this scenario was a trend last week for GFS to show a North Easterly for next weekend..emphasis on trend...........

I would show other models and go into great detail but I'm keeping it short but sweet for all members meteorological knowledge. 

 

16120406_2406.gif

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Superb post as usual Tamara, cautious optimism, watching brief, even a mini ramp:D sounds a lot better than 1 year ago!

The GEFS 6z looks favourable for a cold outbreak from the NW / N during early / mid December.

Edited by Frosty.

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As long as GP's ducks weren't born in last December's crazy mild and wet spell (perfect weather for ducks) I'm hoping his far superior forecasting skills are onto something. With last December providing me with a mean of 10c, it is something I NEVER want to witness again in all my life during winter. :wallbash: Those ducks once lined up, better be Siberian migrants and I hope they've followed the Waxwings in.  :D :cold:

My percentage chances of a wider wintry spell prediction for the turn of December has risen from 15 -20 percent around 25 to 30 percent right now. Will should know more by the beginning of next week when the dates in question are firmly within the reliable timeframe. The HP cell is set to increase in both strength and its dominance over the coming days, so all is as predicted so far. :hi:

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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Met Office 'outlook' through to early Dec depicts wet and windy conditions are likely to transverse across the UK through the first few days of December, so you can insinuate they're not following the cold GFS 06z script. ECM is not going to backdown I sense more will be revealed this evening, I wouldn't get your hopes too high for a rather quick or easy passage to a wintry period. Nonetheless they are inclined with a rather cold period heading towards mid month, with HP to North and East, so the gods are in our favour not knocks. :spiteful: 

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4 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Met Office 'outlook' through to early Dec depicts wet and windy conditions are likely to transverse across the UK through the first few days of December, so you can insinuate they're not following the cold GFS 06z script. ECM is not going to backdown I sense more will be revealed this evening, I wouldn't get your hopes too high for a rather quick or easy passage to a wintry period. Nonetheless they are inclined with a rather cold period heading towards mid month, with HP to North and East, so the gods are in our favour not knocks. :spiteful: 

Expect that outlook to change if the GFS / GEM continue their train of thought and the ECM backs away. :drunk-emoji:

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1 hour ago, Malcolm Edwards said:

Hi i am a complete novice,but enjoy this forum a lot.Could anybody tell me what impact the current hurricane will have on the jet stream if any?

 

Hello Malcolm and welcome to the forum. My basic grasp of how ex hurricanes effect the weather in the Atlantic is that they pump up warm air pole wards (WAA). It's best for cold lovers, the WAA going up towards Greenland. Other members who are far far more knowledgeable than myself and they will correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that ex hurricanes and tropical storms hitch a ride on the jet stream and the storm direction and eventual landfall depends on where the jet stream is. Not actually effecting the jet stream itself. Well that's my take on thing's... Be nice to me gang if I am wrong...

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5 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

Met Office 'outlook' through to early Dec depicts wet and windy conditions are likely to transverse across the UK through the first few days of December, so you can insinuate they're not following the cold GFS 06z script. ECM is not going to backdown I sense more will be revealed this evening, I wouldn't get your hopes too high for a rather quick or easy passage to a wintry period. Nonetheless they are inclined with a rather cold period heading towards mid month, with HP to North and East, so the gods are in our favour not knocks. :spiteful: 

Yeah very good point. And that's why I'm very sceptical of the gfs output at mo. That update sounds like ecm is more favourable at this moment in time. 

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6 minutes ago, fat chad said:

Hello Malcolm and welcome to the forum. My basic grasp of how ex hurricanes effect the weather in the Atlantic is that they pump up warm air pole wards (WAA). It's best for cold lovers, the WAA going up towards Greenland. Other members who are far far more knowledgeable than myself and they will correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that ex hurricanes and tropical storms hitch a ride on the jet stream and the storm direction and eventual landfall depends on where the jet stream is. Not actually effecting the jet stream itself. Well that's my take on thing's... Be nice to me gang if I am wrong...

Quite simply, when we are looking at building blocks for a cold pattern, the last thing we want to throw in is an ex hurricane. IMO. Can change everything. 

Edited by karlos1983

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Honestly people put too much credence in the METO further outlook/forecasts, this is meant in no disrespect but they are wrong just as much as they are right!

The tipping point with this setup is coming soon this is for certain, with it coming into semi-reliable timeframe, I trust the GFS more re: energy in the atlantic and shortwaves but we've seen it has a bit of a tendency to build pressure over zealously. 

 

In summary, I have no clue and this post is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. :p

I'm sure chocolate teapots have their uses......:D

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9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Honestly people put too much credence in the METO further outlook/forecasts, this is meant in no disrespect but they are wrong just as much as they are right!

The tipping point with this setup is coming soon this is for certain, with it coming into semi-reliable timeframe, I trust the GFS more re: energy in the atlantic and shortwaves but we've seen it has a bit of a tendency to build pressure over zealously. 

 

In summary, I have no clue and this post is about as much use as a chocolate teapot. :p

Too much credit is being given to the GFS right now.

It happened in earlier november with the GFS overly bullish about height rises NW. I hope I'm wrong but I'm going to stick to the fact that the METO know what they're talking about, they're professionals after all.

It's way to earlier to decide who has won. 

Edited by SN0WM4N

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