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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

Full support for GFS from control and ENS at 180....That with the GEam I say ECM is wrong - optimistic obviously 

Yep  The control seeing the same signals.

gensnh-0-1-180.png

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12 minutes ago, Fretters said:

Thanks, I think they upgraded the ECM yesterday and what it shows ties in with the METO forecast so (unfortunately) this looks the most likelier reality.

How do you know that, please?

In my experience, during winter, it is usually the ECM throwing up the model porn for coldies whilst the GFS is the zonal party pooper.  No prizes for which one tends to be right - well, to be fair, they tend to meet in the middle, but often nearer the milder solution.

It's interesting to see here the roles are reversed.  Not sure why I should switch to believing the ECM just because it shows the mild solution.  Plus, we have GP's very encouraging noises (although he is the first to admit that he's been wrong before!).

It's great to see charts like this within semi-reliable time frame even if the chance of snowmageadon in London is very remote at that range.

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3 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

The GEFS and EPS could not be more different for week Friday for NW Europe. One says deep trough, the other moderate ridge.

I can honestly say, ive never seen such variation in ensemble suites before, OP's - yes - I have seen those differences at well under T100.

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18 minutes ago, booferking said:

Has the JMA updated from 12v yesterday as cant get it on Meteociel for that 144hr time frame? 

JMA 06z run only goes out to T84 - at least on Meteociel. We need to await the 12z to see the latest thoughts from JMA re the critical 144-168 period.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Boy said:

How do you know that, please?

In my experience, during winter, it is usually the ECM throwing up the model porn for coldies whilst the GFS is the zonal party pooper.  No prizes for which one tends to be right - well, to be fair, they tend to meet in the middle, but often nearer the milder solution.

It's interesting to see here the roles are reversed.  Not sure why I should switch to believing the ECM just because it shows the mild solution.  Plus, we have GP's very encouraging noises (although he is the first to admit that he's been wrong before!).

It's great to see charts like this within semi-reliable time frame even if the chance of snowmageadon in London is very remote at that range.

Tbf the ECM isn't even bad.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?24-12

That's a prime chart for a mid month cold spell. To ridges straight into the pole with the jet well south and the PV with very little organisation.

Just the GFS, GEM and UKMO all show a quicker route to cold. 

.

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I am really very encouraged by the outputs right now. How many times have we seen eye candy charts like this and discover it's a complete loner compared with the rest of the ensembles, control etc.. This much broad agreement to me signals that the mods are on to something.

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7 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Tbf the ECM isn't even bad.

 

ECH1-240.GIF?24-12

That's a prime chart for a mid month cold spell. To ridges straight into the pole with the jet well south and the PV with very little organisation.

Just the GFS, GEM and UKMO all show a quicker route to cold. 

.

Whilst I agree, it seems to me that the difference between that chart and the GFS is that that chart has "potential" (dreaded word) whereas the GFS has a Snowfest.  So very, very different (at that point, at least).  The difference is the ensembles seems even more pronounced.

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Best run I've seen for what feels like forever. Tonight's runs are going to be good! ECM inc!

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Anyhow' one of these suites are going to be in the dog house by the weekend/early next week.

Lets hope its not the dog with the bone though ay??!!

Gfs v's Ecm...let the battle commence! !!!

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13 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

Briefly ignoring all aspects of any meteorology, got to say that 06Z GFS run is worth saving and salivating over for the rest of the day, especially after the relentless dross of 12 months ago!...

However, and back to reality. The differences between the GFS and the ECM are significant and, as Glacier Point, highlights especially for the UK and NW Europe in general in roughly a weeks time they are about as opposite as can be. Examination of the EC Clusters at T+192hr (Fri 2nd Dec) show that just 10 members, out of the usual 51 members, show something similar to that of the GFS evolution, ie; a marked region of blocking and with more of a marked trough over the UK and NW Europe to allow for a possible cold N or NW'ly flow. Clearly 10 out of 51 is a minority and, for now at least, the ECMWF just isn't buying the GFS evolution, all directly related to the up-stream developments just off the eastern seaboard and/or Newfoundland region in roughly a weeks time.

It is safe to say that no official forecasts will be going with what the GFS is showing just yet, primarily because of the distinct lack of connection between the GFS and the ECMWF and not only that we are still talking about a possible 'event' that is 6 or 7 days away, a long time no matter whether consistency is good or not.

A case of just sitting and waiting to see if the consistency develops (and for us cold fans hoping on this occasions the GFS is picking up the correct evolution) especially if is there is then cross-model agreement with the EC and GFS as, to an extent, one of these models is likely to be more right than wrong. There is always a possibility both could be wrong and a different evolution occurs, but I can't see that now.

Matt.

 

NB: Winter forecast from myself and Tony (Lorenzo) likely to be issued before the end of the week, stay tuned!...

The European forecast model already outperforms all of the world’s other global forecasting systems, including gfs,

however its not certain that ecm has it right either.But i think a lot of us know  unless ecm shows the same solution as gfs it is not going to happen.

 

 

 

Edited by snowice

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The control being on board is a major plus imo ECM still looks like it could be fun and games before xmas but obviously gfs hopefully is on the money and the sledge can be dusted down as its not been used for over 4 years

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10 minutes ago, MattHugo said:

(Snipped)

Examination of the EC Clusters at T+192hr (Fri 2nd Dec) show that just 10 members, out of the usual 51 members, show something similar to that of the GFS evolution, ........

I'm rather encouraged! With 20% of EC members seeing a similar evolution to GFS, it means the GFS isn't completely off on one!! :)

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1 minute ago, snowice said:

The European forecast model already outperforms all of the world’s other global forecasting systems, including gfs,

however its not certain that ecm has it right either.But i think a lot of us now unless ecm shows the same solution as gfs is not

Going to happen!

 

 

That isn't the case this time as the ecm has just had an upgrade so it means it's verification stats against the others has been reset as we do not know weather this upgrade has made the ECM better or worse. So we just have to wait and see who folds first at the weather poker table. 

This next week will allow some members to get to grips with what is better and what is worse with the new ECM and allow them to better inform us of what it might be wrong with the ECM

TJ

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1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

That isn't the case this time as the ecm has just had an upgrade so it means it's verification stats against the others has been reset as we do not know weather this upgrade has made the ECM better or worse. So we just have to wait and see who folds first at the weather poker table. 

This next week will allow some members to get to grips with what is better and what is worse with the new ECM and allow them to better inform us of what it might be wrong with the ECM

TJ

Is it a fair comment to say that the GFS upgrade wasn't a roaring success?

Are there any 'before' or 'after' verification stats to judge the success of past upgrades?  Presumably whoever paid for it would be interested in that(!) but they might not be publically available.

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Time for cautious optimism methinks?

I agree Ed..I mean Pete:D

Generally very encouraging output so far today for the majority on here and hopefully this will continue throughout today and tonight with the Ecm jumping on-board! 

Cautious optimism is the perfect way of describing things right now, we know the models will flip flop each run but I'm seeing signs of a much more seasonal December ahead.:)

Edited by Frosty.

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36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Full support for GFS from control and ENS at 180....That with the GEM I say ECM is wrong - optimistic obviously 

 

great mean 

IMG_3619.PNG

Not full support... roughly 1/3 of GEFS fail to link the two highs (although a few have a messier evolution that ends up with higher heights to NW).

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There is a distinct problem with the GFS evolution however is that it can go horribly wrong with a west based -NAO 

gensnh-0-1-240.png 

Control shows this with a southerly for most of the UK. Just another hurdle after this initial hurdle is how far can we kick the pattern east.

Edited by SN0WM4N

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On 08/11/2016 at 12:30, fergieweather said:

Excuse the question but is that true that after an upgrade a models verification statistics effectively start again? I would have expected that not to be the case.

 

 

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Well, no, of course not, but people can be right to question if it has a handle on things. It is more hoping than based on anything logical, though. Either could be right. Neither could be right. No matter if it is the GFS or ECM showing the cold, most here will side with the cold one and find all kinds of reasons to do so ;-) Not that I blame them, the UK has had an awful few years.

 

 

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