Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

That's a perfect Greenland high,no other way to describe it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Solid ridge...deep waa eastern seaboard' Atlantic shut off point accomplish. 

Deep set pv eastern pole....

gfsnh-0-204-3.png

Is that the start of a Greenie HP building????!?!?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would be very sceptical of what the gfs output is showing at the moment. We all know that the ecm is the top performance model in the verification stats. Until we get some cross model support than I would take the gfs with a massive bucket load of salt. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

It's going to link the polar low with the atlantic one...

 

It's certainly trying to..

gfsnh-0-228.png?6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS churning out x-rated charts on the 06z. Hope it isn't on one again like yesterday's 06z, which turned out to be a cold outlier. 12z's today will be the ones to watch. Such exciting viewing and so much better than last year. I'm one excited weather fan today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

That's a perfect Greenland high,no other way to describe it.

Looks like it could form omega block!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting chart this is cold cold cold  start to winter. The meto last night gave hints in there long range forecast WINTER IS COMING .:D

 

 

 

IMG_1200.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^^canadian (gem).. /America n (gfs)...

Going solid hand in hand on block'and cold sspillage via eastern hem/pole!!!!!

Someone nudge the ec' and tell it to wake up!!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here comes a full on blizzard on the GFS 6z.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is the not just the cherry on top, but the icing ans sprinkles too? Low forms to the north of Spain and is heading East towards France...

gfsnh-0-264.png?6  gfsnh-0-300.png?6gfsnh-0-324.png?6

Way out in FI though, so just for 'fun'

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

London and SE transport system raspberry rippled!!!

gfsnh-0-312_jwh2.png

 

Be interesting to see the 2M temp graph for London when it comes out, hazard a guess that that slack flow at 384 after a belting would see even central London max temps sig below freezing - very unusual these days.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ECM is really out on its own this one with LP sliding over the top of the Atlantic ridge and breaking the tie with the one in E Canada.. Below are the day 7 images for all the models available at http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ 

UKMO

ukm2.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

GFS

gfs2.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

 

GEM

cmc2.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

FIM8

fim8.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

FIM 9

rtfim9.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker (1).png

ECM

ecm2.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

 

The only support it has is from the NAVGEM - hardly a ringing endorsement

 

navg.2016120100.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

 

If the new ECM has got this right against all the other models this will be quite a coup - if not back to the drawing board maybe for the new version. The effect and placement of the tropical depression does seem to be having an effect.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well Ladies and Gents i give you the GFS 6z   for longevity of cold  i dont think i have seen many better.   maybe even a Scandi high showing at the end of the run. But is it Right??   you cares i just love to see charts like that which shows it is possible if the dice fall right.  On to the ensembles  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Fretters said:

Hi, having been watching the models for some time I find the GEM very inconsistent, it was showing a much more mobile outlook yesterday ? 

Yes the operational run can often be all over the place. And does have a bias with high pressure near Greenland. Probably better to just view its ensembles and mean rather than the op which IMO is best used for cat litter.

Until the ECM comes on board then I'd be cautious about rushing off to the sledge shop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

The key difference (not for the first time) is the difference between how GFS and ECM model Low Pressure coming off Newfoundland. On both the 0z and now 06z runs the GFS separates the feature from the trough over Greenland, opening up the vital gap for the Atlantic High to ridge northwards. GEM supports this evolution. ECM start with promise, but then has the Newfoundland Low merge back with the Greenland trough which blocks the High. JMA supports the ECM evolution. We need to see ECM move towards GFS and GEM on this.

GFS (both 0z and 06z):

T144 144 GFS 06z NH500.png T168 168 GFS 06z NH500.png T192 192 GFS 06z NH500.png

ECM 0z:

T144 144 ECM NH500.GIF T168 168 ECM 0z NH500.GIF T192 192 ECM NH500.GIF

Has the JMA updated from 12v yesterday as cant get it on Meteociel for that 144hr time frame? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better GFS and potentially UKMO today but we been here before and in fairness, the ECM's flat evolution did have support from yesterday's output thats for sure. I'm always skeptical when it comes to potential ridging into Greenland as there is always usually a spoiler which pops up and changes the outlook.

The fact these charts are now getting closer to the medium range does make it more interesting though but we need more cross model support and it can go either way really. Last night runs decreased the Northerly signal whilst today's so far would seem to indicate its still entirely possible for a Northerly flow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Obviously operational s need support from mean etc.

But having such op synoptic as gfs has been throwing out of late I would expect support to gain momentum. 

Ecm obviously fly in ointment atm...throughout its data!..

We shall see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

London and SE transport system raspberry rippled!!!

gfsnh-0-312_jwh2.png

 

Be interesting to see the 2M temp graph for London when it comes out, hazard a guess that that slack flow at 384 after a belting would see even central London max temps sig below freezing - very unusual these days.

Model porn from the 06z!! Sadly I live within walking distance of work so I wouldn't be able to blame the transport system. :( But the chaos when snow hits London is worth it for the entertainment value alone. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very interesting chart this is cold cold cold  start to winter. The meto last night gave hints in there long range forecast WINTER IS COMING .:D

 

 

 

IMG_1200.PNG

At least the 06z run remains consistent with yesterdays from GFS. However, we need to see a change towards this outcome in the 12z run which was much milder yesterday. Maybe a re- adjustment towards the American Models  will occur on the next ECM run but this does not tend to be wholehearted in these circumstances. Slowly but surely we are heading for a prolonged cold spell. Already Scotland has done well so far this season for a bit of cold. Fantastic charts from GFS this morning (06z) would bring a snow festival to the Northwest of England.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...