Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

Recommended Posts

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm afraid I'm not following that. Both at T120 and T144 there is very much a meridional flow over the central US with a deep upper low situated there/

ecm_z500_anom_noram_6.png

If you look at the ECM op compared to the GFS you'll see the latter is more amplified at day 5 and 6 over the central USA. Once I get back on the laptop I'll stick some pics up to show this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well this is awkward...

gens-21-1-240.png  EDM1-240.GIF?24-12

That's a monstrous difference for a mean chart - absolute chalk and cheese. Are we on the new ECM now? If so, they've well and truly dealt with its north Atlantic amplification bias - hopefully too much!!

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If you look at the ECM op compared to the GFS you'll see the latter is more amplified at day 5 and 6 over the central USA. Once I get back on the laptop I'll stick some pics up to show this.

I agree it's more amplified in general over North America because it introduces the GOA trough but on both the flow is very meridional. So much flatter is not really that obvious. Anyway at the end of the day, and now having looked at the EPS, the ecm certainly has a different take on the evolution.

gfs_z500a_noram_23.pngecm_z500_anom_noram_6.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Are we on the new ECM now? 

 

 

If we are on the new one, I want to see the old one come back..but seriously, there is support for a cold and unsettled early December with a nwly / nly flow..everything crossed!:D

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cold is the name of game as we move in to December models all over place at minute still week away  but a firming up of models on way :D

IMG_1198.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascination discussions regarding the ECM/GFS differences this morning. Anyway GFS 6z is rolling out and some westwards shift of the cold air at t78...

0Z gfsnh-0-84.png   6z gfsnh-0-78.png?6

 

0Z gfs-1-84.png  6Z gfs-1-78.png?6

Still not enough to make any practical difference though at this stage.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More poor model reliability, great news considering the junk that ECM is throwing out twice a day presently!

Great post GP, thank you very much.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

 Notably EC modelling has been much slower with this wave, and more broadly convective wave passage through the Maritimes shows lower skill. So expect poor model reliability to get worse.

GEFS and GEM modelling of the stratosphere is different to EPS, although broad agreement on a Canadian Warming and slight rotation of the stratospheric ridge on an anticlockwise rotation towards Greenland. GFS is a good representation of this, although on the weak side for this run, but the prospects of a squeeze on the upper vortex from both sides of the Pole from Atlantic and Pacific sides looks like a long term trend here.

Where that takes us.. should see increasing propensity for tropospheric ridge across the polar region, and increasing meridionality in the Atlantic sector. Latest EPS very unconvincing in its anomaly fields being very weak signature across its mean with the exception of the North Pacific ridge.

Reading an unpublished thesis last year, evidence was shown that ECM has a low-propagation speed bias for MJO type activity. This was only significant in the W-C Pacific but perhaps on occasion it could lead to divergence from other models for the India-Martimes sector, such as we're seeing at the moment.

GEFS is impressing me with the strength of trend toward what theory suggests we should expect mid-Dec. This a case where we really so wish for it to be leading the way!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No back tracking from the GFS 06z, it is determined to bring us the Northerly. If it sticks to it's guns and gets agreement from the UKMO this afternoon, I think we will see an ECM with it's tail between it's legs this evening. 

 

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well if the GFS is going to win out in the ECM/GFS battle it's looking to throw everything at it. By t144 the 6z is much better than the 0z around Greenland and a slightly more NW->SE tilt to the flow.

0Z  gfsnh-0-150.png   6Z gfsnh-0-144.png?6

Edit: And by t168...

0Z gfsnh-0-174.png   6Z gfsnh-0-168.png?6

Recently the GFS 6Z has been becoming my favorite run, I just hope it doesn't let me down. :D

Edited by Ravelin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much more favorable Northerly with better ridging in the Atlantic and closer to us on this run

 

gfsnh-0-162.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well by T+171, it's more Northerly and lest North-Westerly than the 0z. Much sharper ridging in the Atlantic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6z....

Dog with a bone.

This further highlighting' ecm negative'response to evolution. 

Gfs overiding the solution of waa.and responding exceptional well imo.

gfsnh-0-168.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Well if the GFS is going to win out in the ECM/GFS battle it's looking to throw everything at it. By t144 the 6z is much better than the 0z around Greenland and a slightly more NW->SE tilt to the flow.

0Z  gfsnh-0-150.png   6Z gfsnh-0-144.png?6

A real battle royale between the two heavyweights of the NWP world. Who will come out on top with the title belt for the latest bout? ECM and GFS still chalk and cheese.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Oh my god I don't think this thread saw this much excitement at any point last year!  If that HP in the Atlantic was able to link up with the Greenie HP or Nova Scotia HP, that would be veeeeerrrry interesting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Solid ridge...deep waa eastern seaboard' Atlantic shut off point accomplish. 

Deep set pv eastern pole....

gfsnh-0-204-3.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gfs6z is much more pleasing than that horrid Ecm, oh i do hope Gfs can Donald Ecm here, very cold north wester with cold, frosts and snow showers...:cold::D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There may be snow for everyone on this GFS run

gfs-1-198.png?6

What would be the halfway position between the current GFS output and the Euros? I would guess even a halfway position would still look wintry for northern areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interestingly, the low that lands over Norway at t168...

gfsnh-0-168.png?6

Is still sat there at t216

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

Not bringing hugely cold t850 temps though

gfs-1-216.png?6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's going to link the polar low with the atlantic one...

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...