Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

That's a just for fun chart - rather meaningless at that range.  Disagrees with many of the other operational runs this morning.  Let's see what the ensembles say...

I assume that was an attempt at irony/

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

jvenge if you are looking at the charts from the Regional Surface run posting them is a definite no no.

Okay, seems that isn't allowed. So, take my word for it what they show :-)

 

[Gavin Hannah]

These two emoticons pretty much sum up me emotions right now! Ideally, I would like to see these type of chats again in a day or twos time. Then, and only then will I say they are in the reliable time frame but my lord they are soooo close!

[jvenge]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

That's a just for fun chart - rather meaningless at that range.  Disagrees with many of the other operational runs this morning.  Let's see what the ensembles say...

Quite relevant, but who knows if it is right. Most of the anomaly comes from the first few days, though. I wouldn't say the ECM is a mild run. Below average, to above average, to around average, if not slightly below.

[Snow Grain]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 00z is how December should start! It's what coldies deserve

Looks good but in reality we are looking at daytime temps of 3 to 4 in the north and 5 to 7 in the south, due to the moderation of the sea.  Night time frosts would be hard though.

[MR EXTREMES]

16 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 00z is how December should start! It's what coldies deserve

id bank the gem but all models agree apart from the ecm which is a massive worry in terms of wintry or not

[jvenge]

12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The ecm continues to be stagnant looking in any evolution I.e' waa upstream and having little/no influence on major displacement of hp cell around our shores.

The gfs 'however' remains steadfast in evolving at least as far sticking to its continued fixation of forming a block to the north west of sorts.

I have to say "and some won't agree here"!..but due to comparable evolutionary' for me the ec' is alittle off key atm and may well be playing catch up to the slowest' of degrees! ..

We shall certainly know more by end of all 12zthis evening. 

I'm only trusting the GFS up to T126 at the moment...

Well, I don't trust any of them at all :-) But, I guess I'd say the ensembles don't start deviating so much until then.

[Frosty.]

There is support for a cold unsettled early December from the GEFS 00z

Edited November 24, 2016 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

Liking the broad long-term signal from the GFS 00z; signs of the Pacific-Atlantic cross polar ridge building.

Another peculiar looking ECM run I see. The way it has shortwave troughs heading both NE and SE at the same time... I mean what is that?! 

Isn't that three odd runs in a row i.e. every run since the model updates to the new version?

Its going to be an extraordinary victory if it turns out to be along the right lines, correctly spotting such an unusual pattern well ahead of the other models - but I'm starting to suspect the opposite for this model...

[MR EXTREMES]

Just now, jvenge said:

I'm only trusting the GFS up to T126 at the moment...

Well, I don't trust any of them at all :-) But, I guess I'd say the ensembles don't start deviating so much until then.

i wouldnt trust any model until the blob of vortex has moved over to this side and beyond greenland for now.

i trust the ecm but not when most other models show similar to each other and the ecm shows a complete collapes of heights like it has today.

we are the closest in years to something very cold compared to recent years.

the gem would just be the icing on the cake.

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Liking the broad long-term signal from the GFS 00z; signs of the Pacific-Atlantic cross polar ridge building.

Another peculiar looking ECM run I see. The way it has shortwave troughs heading both NE and SE at the same time... I mean what is that?! 

Isn't that three odd runs in a row i.e. every run since the model updates to the new version?

Its going to be an extraordinary victory if it turns out to be along the right lines, correctly spotting such an unusual pattern well ahead of the other models - but I'm starting to suspect the opposite for this model...

I know some of the US forecasters are bashing the ECM the past week or so for how it is modeling things in the US. At weather bell they seem to be preferring the GFS and Canadian at the moment. The ECM has been the daddy for a long time though. 

[Frosty.]

I'm not liking the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, upstream it looks flatter than recently and kind of supports the op, it could take a bit of work to turn this around but we have plenty of support from the other models for a colder alternative.

 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Frosty.

[Gavin Hannah]

I noticed on the GFS run (either the 00Z or last nights pub run) deep in FI, a HP seemed to form and looked positioned just right to deliver us a Beasterly down the line. I would think all our Xmas's have come at once, if we get the progged charts for next weekend, then a Beasterly a week or two before Xmas. This thread would go into meltdown lol.

[Gavin Hannah]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not liking the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, upstream it looks flatter than recently and kind of supports the op, it could take a bit of work to turn this around but we have plenty of support from the other models for a colder alternative.

 

ECM for me is in the dust bin (unless it proves right in which case all other mods go in the bin this winter lol)

[knocker]

The GEFS 8-13 mean anomaly supports the det. run in the sense it would go along with transient cold events from the NW.

It has the familiar upstream pattern of GOA ridge, low the southern States and ridging between Canada and Greenland. This portends energy and troughs running around to the north of the HP and dropping south east over the UK. Given the source of the airstream it could well produce a wintry outbreak as any systems traverse the UK with the wind veering northerly. But best to remember the other outlet to the south and it also wouldn't need much adjustment to the pressure distribution for the strong westerly jet to push the trough further east

Edited November 24, 2016 by knocker

[nick sussex]

 Some one give the ECM a Santa hat! It really is determined to play the Xmas grinch. The issue with it is it's much flatter over the central USA between T120 and T144 hrs. This downstream effects the shortwave in the Atlantic , the amplification upstream in the others helps to amplify this aiding  the retrogression of the high some energy does spill east se but it's easily absorbed by the main low over the UK.

 

[bluearmy]

23 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Liking the broad long-term signal from the GFS 00z; signs of the Pacific-Atlantic cross polar ridge building.

Another peculiar looking ECM run I see. The way it has shortwave troughs heading both NE and SE at the same time... I mean what is that?! 

Isn't that three odd runs in a row i.e. every run since the model updates to the new version?

Its going to be an extraordinary victory if it turns out to be along the right lines, correctly spotting such an unusual pattern well ahead of the other models - but I'm starting to suspect the opposite for this model...

The para (which is now the op) seemed to do pretty well whilst it was available 

 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 Some one give the ECM a Santa hat! It really is determined to play the Xmas grinch. The issue with it is it's much flatter over the central USA between T120 and T144 hrs. This downstream effects the shortwave in the Atlantic , the amplification upstream in the others helps to amplify this aiding  the retrogression of the high some energy does spill east se but it's easily absorbed by the main low over the UK.

 

Well Nick so were would you place your bets on then.

[Seasonality]

I love cold as much as the next man, I really do. But we need to be careful of confirmation bias when dismissing the ECM. Question for the posters more expert than I... If there is a climb down from either ECM or GFS, when should we expect this?

[Gavin Hannah]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I love cold as much as the next man, I really do. But we need to be careful of confirmation bias when dismissing the ECM. Question for the posters more expert than I... If there is a climb down from either ECM or GFS, when should we expect this?

I would expect changes in the outputs of either within the next 24 hours. Days 3 - 4 are within fairly reliable time frame. But as others have alluded to, the devil is in the detail. Think the butterfly effect.

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 Some one give the ECM a Santa hat! It really is determined to play the Xmas grinch. The issue with it is it's much flatter over the central USA between T120 and T144 hrs. This downstream effects the shortwave in the Atlantic , the amplification upstream in the others helps to amplify this aiding  the retrogression of the high some energy does spill east se but it's easily absorbed by the main low over the UK.

 

I'm afraid I'm not following that. Both at T120 and T144 there is very much a meridional flow over the central US with a deep upper low situated there/

[northwestsnow]

Ecm is atrocious for cold down the line this morning, after watching JH last night i was kind of hoping to see some kind of improvement in the 0z runs but aside from GEM it just looks rather poor insofar as signals for high lat blocking is concerned, obviously its very early days but taking the ECM in isolation, (and i must admit the saying used to annoy me), its a long way to cold from there, if anything the profile to the NW is deterioating as we move into Dec...

Edited November 24, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Yarmy]

Well they've certainly cured the old ECM's tendency to over-amplify in its latter stages! 

"I don't have to show you any stinking ridges"

 

The GEFS mean and the bias corrected mean paint a similar picture at T240 with the latter a tad less amplified in the Atlantic and with lower heights over the pole:

 

 

 

Edited November 24, 2016 by Yarmy

[bluearmy]

Just checked my calendar and it's still a week until December begins

give the models a chance

Eps ext 00z mean/anomoly very different for the uk as the low anomaly which has been present on every run for last week is lifted out before it establishes! Methinks a wait until this evening is in order

If different then this might affect the reliability of the 46 due out tonight as I believe it to be an extention of the 15 day ens just run. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just checked my calendar and it's still a week until December begins

give the models a chance

Eps ext 00z mean/anomoly very different for the uk as the low anomaly which has been present on every run for last week is lifted out before it establishes! Methinks a wait until this evening is in order

If different then this might affect the reliability of the 46 due out tonight as I believe it to be an extention of the 15 day ens just run. 

 

Great!!!  re - the EC46 tonight,  Just what we need - more uncertainty, not knowing if a run which only comes out every 3 and a half days has wrong starting data!!

Edited November 24, 2016 by feb1991blizzard