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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

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9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Well the BBC must be talking gfs ops  ,ecm  ops looks dull and frankly boring!:D

Although it says EARLY December at the bottom, I think that is referring to the mild wet weather in the first part as he says 'cold as we go through December',  in my interpretation means at least towards mid December so no GFS or ECM op or Ens is going to pick up on that yet, only monthly or seasonal models will do that, we are looking by the weekend at the VERY earliest before we see signs in the GEFS / EPS, assuming of course that that forecast is correct.

HOWEVER.

Given the split in the ECM ens, surely there is a chance of some proper cold earlier.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although it says EARLY December at the bottom, I think that is referring to the mild wet weather in the first part as he says 'cold as we go through December',  in my interpretation means at least towards mid December so no GFS or ECM op or Ens is going to pick up on that yet, only monthly or seasonal models will do that, we are looking by the weekend at the VERY earliest before we see signs in the GEFS / EPS, assuming of course that that forecast is correct.

Correct that's how I would see it also, in the meantime who is correct ECM or GFS ?

Edited by Banbury

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Seems harsh knocking Hammond?

 

Now for me if one is looking for total northern blocking lock out and and a 2010 scenario then I don't see that happening.  I see it more what GFS is showing into early Dec......which ain't a bad start to winter at all if it goes that  way

 

BFTP

 

 

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Just now, Banbury said:

Correct that's how I would see it also, in the meantime who is correct ECM or GFS ?

Really don't know looking at the ECM ens but I would side with mild wet weather given the MO / BBC forecasts.

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although it says EARLY December at the bottom, I think that is referring to the mild wet weather in the first part as he says 'cold as we go through December',  in my interpretation means at least towards mid December so no GFS or ECM op or Ens is going to pick up on that yet, only monthly or seasonal models will do that, we are looking by the weekend at the VERY earliest before we see signs in the GEFS / EPS, assuming of course that that forecast is correct.

HOWEVER.

Given the split in the ECM ens, surely there is a chance of some proper cold earlier.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

 

Although there is a lot of spread and therefore uncertainty it also does not go unnoticed that the only discernible cluster goes for cold.

Might see a proper split develop tomorrow rather than just spread.

 

Within GFS 18z ensembles about 40% manage to get uppers of -5 or lower into central England at some stage first week of December but not many manage to sustain a cold Arctic feed so a Northerly outbreak of some kind could well happen but a sustained cold spell or deeper cold may be harder to find.

I guess we need to get the Northerly established in the output before worrying about developments from there.

Edited by Mucka

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gensnh-0-1-312.png

Never ever going to be right but you wouldn't grumble with this would you ?

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P19 GEFS 18z draws cold air down across the uk with a blocked atlantic..nice!

GFSP19EU18_264_2.png

GFSP19EU18_288_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Very interesting update from met office for the start of winter and behond there must have very good signal for cold weather though out December the talk of snow as well something is afoot :D

IMG_1194.PNG

IMG_1195.PNG

IMG_1197.PNG

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59 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

How many times has the BBC longer range forecasts have proven to be incorrect? Quite alot in fairness, too me its too early to speculate and in my eyes, the models are indicating we may head into a more positive AO as we head into the first few days into December, the ECM 12Z certainly shows this with low heights across the Arctic and the PV is definately getting more organised up there now. I rather if the beeb just waited for the cold to arrive and then explain how the AO is all linked to it, not potentially weeks beforehand.

18Z further enforces the trend we are unlikely going too see much WAA heading up the Western side of Greenland and the Atlantic comes in a bit stronger on this run, its only by another half hearted ridge we get some cold heading southwards but then as in normal GFS fashion it gets messy.

Whilst there does not seem much trend for anything significantly mild, it does look like the settled spell will end a bit quicker than first thought and Atlantic fronts start coming in from Tuesday onwards. The Northerly signal is getting weaker all the while and seems less likely to happen.

If anything northerly signal getting stronger it's been toying with this for a few runs now let's see where  we are tomorrow trends are the key. :DIMG_1197.PNG

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20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

John Hammond is a brilliant forecaster...one of the best the BBC have at the moment in my very honest opinion.

Definately a brilliant forecaster and I always enjoyed watching his forecasts but I just have to question why they mentioning about the AO and prospects of cold during December where its beyond the 6-10 day period. Also it looks like too me the AO will go positive with quite a strong PV over the Arctic, whether this will change again or not then who knows.

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4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Definately a brilliant forecaster and I always enjoyed watching his forecasts but I just have to question why they mentioning about the AO and prospects of cold during December where its beyond the 6-10 day period. Also it looks like too me the AO will go positive with quite a strong PV over the Arctic, whether this will change again or not then who knows.

I can only assume that there are really quite strong signals for a -AO as we approach mid December. IIRC the Metoffice have traditionally done well with picking out cold spells when us amateurs couldn't necessarily see it yet. I recall them picking up on the January 2013 snow weeks before it hit...I know this because a council employee had been in work and told us that they'd been briefed. That was mid December I think.

The Metoffice are not known for sticking their head above the parapet RE cold and snow unless they have some solid signals to suggest it.

Edited by CreweCold

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I can only assume that there are really quite strong signals for a -AO as we approach mid December. IIRC the Metoffice have traditionally done well with picking out cold spells when us amateurs couldn't necessarily see it yet. I recall them picking up on the January 2013 snow weeks before it hit...I know this because a council employee had been in work and told us that they'd been briefed. That was mid December I think.

Its just a big and unnessary risk personally and if I remember rightly, there was hints perhaps from the models we don't see about the potential for blocking at the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, this now looks quite unlikely. Just think its better to explain all the technical reasons once the cold/snow is locked in and not weeks before any such event.

Apart from some GFS low resolution FI charts, there has been very little in the charts to get excited about on a snow POV so we shall see if this changes as we head into December but for now, apart from some hope we may get a Northerly, then any cold snowy weather looks a little way off at the moment but of course, things can change before we know it.

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1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

Its just a big and unnessary risk personally and if I remember rightly, there was hints perhaps from the models we don't see about the potential for blocking at the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, this now looks quite unlikely. Just think its better to explain all the technical reasons once the cold/snow is locked in and not weeks before any such event.

Apart from some GFS low resolution FI charts, there has been very little in the charts to get excited about on a snow POV so we shall see if this changes as we head into December but for now, apart from some hope we may get a Northerly, then any cold snowy weather looks a little way off at the moment but of course, things can change before we know it.

I don't know what there is to moan about...I appreciate that they give us little bits of insight like this. If they're prepared to take the risk that far ahead, it must be a measured one and I'll go along with it until it's proved to be a bust. If it turns out to be accurate then happy days :D

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5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Its just a big and unnessary risk personally and if I remember rightly, there was hints perhaps from the models we don't see about the potential for blocking at the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, this now looks quite unlikely. Just think its better to explain all the technical reasons once the cold/snow is locked in and not weeks before any such event.

Apart from some GFS low resolution FI charts, there has been very little in the charts to get excited about on a snow POV so we shall see if this changes as we head into December but for now, apart from some hope we may get a Northerly, then any cold snowy weather looks a little way off at the moment but of course, things can change before we know it.

Hints given in here yes ... but i do not recall any BBC weather saying blocked end of November/December.... infact i feel they have given a really good account of themselves over Autumn.. we all know that nothing is set in stone, but im pretty sure the BBC wouldn't of gone out there without some confidence to do so from the Met Office... anyways back to the here and now.. we still see big problems with the models trying to search out the pattern but totally flip flopping as they really do struggle to get a grip with the most unusual NH this season...

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The polar vortex at the end of this run, is still very disorganised.  I think that really goes to show that 'anything goes' when it comes to the outcome.

Next week at least we have some nice frosts to look forward to!  And it's not even winter yet, I'd call that a 'win' 

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17 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Its just a big and unnessary risk personally and if I remember rightly, there was hints perhaps from the models we don't see about the potential for blocking at the end of Nov/beginning of Dec, this now looks quite unlikely. Just think its better to explain all the technical reasons once the cold/snow is locked in and not weeks before any such event.

Apart from some GFS low resolution FI charts, there has been very little in the charts to get excited about on a snow POV so we shall see if this changes as we head into December but for now, apart from some hope we may get a Northerly, then any cold snowy weather looks a little way off at the moment but of course, things can change before we know it.

gfsnh-12-6.png?18

Looks pretty blocked to me.

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Nice to read back ' (sigh ) that was one heck of a Read 'And like i said and came to the cunning truth  ' its just going the way i did say  ' Never ever Rely on Silly assembles ' they chuck some good cold extremes with Winter fest and Snaw and Ice cold Days .. my Post's did get deleted by Mods.. As i was only saying what was going to happen And it sure has spun that way ' Just all listen  to the UK METO 'Bang on all the time (well 90%) .... the charts i access are much better than what you all see in here ' Fog ' Frost is the way for December with some real cold interludes and even Snaw much over the Uk  even at Low Levels ..

AFK.

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I can only assume that there are really quite strong signals for a -AO as we approach mid December. IIRC the Metoffice have traditionally done well with picking out cold spells when us amateurs couldn't necessarily see it yet. I recall them picking up on the January 2013 snow weeks before it hit...I know this because a council employee had been in work and told us that they'd been briefed. That was mid December I think.

The Metoffice are not known for sticking their head above the parapet RE cold and snow unless they have some solid signals to suggest it.

They can of course access much more model output than we can, much of the ecmwf output is only available for paid subscribere

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