Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You see theres slightly more of a kink in what I think is the 552 line in those charts you have posted, so very very slightly different to 0z, but a tiny difference like that could mean 10 or so more members showing cold by the end of the run, Ian says 'as you were though, I am not sure why the confidence has suddenly increased in the MO tex forecast when there is such a wide spread on bothe ensemble suites ive seen.

I see wintry potential (Pm / Am) further upstream for sure judging by the extended Ecm 12z ens mean jet alignment.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes in many ways its more important than the 15d ensemble suites for the time being anyway.

Yup, pre season is over, has all the hype been on the money...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yup, pre season is over, has all the hype been on the money...

Yes, what I mean by my last comment is that we have a good few more days yet before we need to see the re-emergence of Northern blocking in deep FI to find agreement with the monthly / seasonal models, where as if by this time tomorrow the Glosea5 and ECM46 have collapsed and show a mild or average December with No blocking at all, this place would be despondent and the writing would be on the wall.

[Snow Grain]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, from one who was a mere nipper, back in the days of Jack Armstrong, Bert Foord, Micheal Hunt, Michael Fish, Ian McAskill, Jack Scot - and so many others, I have only the utmost admiration for the Met Office...

Why are so many folk anti Met Office? The Met, together with computer models from all over the world, combine to give us all the best information available??

Be grateful?

There are many who do not like the met office, when they disagree with the models that they are viewing showing whiteout conditions, ice days etc.  The met office are always right, so it's best to check with them before coming to any conclusions regarding dodgy model outputs that change several times a day.

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Marked ENS spread again in ECMWF post-29th, in keeping with 00z suite. Magical mystery tour.... 

Whilst events this side of the Atlantic look less clear (though no sign that anything of a particularly wintry flavour likely - caveat that under the low anomoly through week 2 always a chance of a runner into the upper trough), we see a marked mean ridge establish over the aleutians end week 2. With signs that the ext eps now edging towards gefs split vortex solution with a nw of Greenland  portion, a big ridge from the n Pacific could throw up some opportunities for a cold pattern to set in

Edited November 23, 2016 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

33 minutes ago, fromey said:

Sorry big amateur here but what does this mean?? And what effect would this have??

cheers

fromey

A strengthening of the Strat vortex which if it propagates downwards through the Atmosphere all the way,i t could mean more zonal milld weather for us than for most of this Autumn.

[swfc]

30 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 tomorrow's EC Monthly update is a biggy! (As ever)

Id agree but if the varience and state of flux of the strat and nhp are so volatile how does it carry any weight ?.I have the total respect for ian and the met but if come  jan and the ec says late jan for a drop in temps and an - nao and it fails where are we forceast wise?.Im know expert but i can say that this winter or dec will be slightly below avg.if im wrong im wrong but know one on here will take my forecast with nothing but contempt!!!.I spoke to paul hudson the other week about the projected below average dec ete"not snowy"ete and he said "getting to grips with seven days is enough tbh"

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by swfc

[knocker]

The 6-10 anomalies this evening are all on the same page albeit one could argue about minor details.

A weak ridge in the eastern Pacific with trough in the southern States. Ridging NW from the Atlantic to the high positive anomalies over Canada and western Greenland with a trough Iceland area linking to the main trough in eastern Europe. Thus an upper flow NW/W and the expectation would be for systems to swing into the UK from that direction and probably effect Scotland and the north rather more than the south. The source of some of  this air ( I say some because there is a split upstream) is northern Canada so transient wintry outbreaks from the north cannot be ruled out as systems traverse the UK.

Looking further afield is more of a lottery although a certain trend is emerging and has been for a while.

The upstream pattern is essentially the same except it retrogressed a little but there is no agreement downstream. The GEFS wants to keep some ridging mid Atlantic with a trough to the NE of the UK thus retaining the cool NW flow whereas the ecm doesn't and has a flatter westerly upper flow with little indication of any trough to the east although still negative anomalies. There are still options open here at this range although the percentage play at the moment is for a westerly regime.

Edited November 23, 2016 by knocker

[ArHu3]

49 minutes ago, fromey said:

Sorry big amateur here but what does this mean?? And what effect would this have??

cheers

fromey

Amateur here too but anything with West in it sounds very bad (regarding weather of course)

[Guest]

A pretty good update on the BBC weather just now.... looks like the AO set to stat negative... confirm wetter spell in to the start of December but then a more blocked set up with it turning colder with increased ice and snow risk.... he also confirmed that the computer models are struggling greatly with the NH set up.... so im guessing we wont see anything consistent from the model output anytime soon....

[damianslaw]

A fair bit of uncertainty at the moment, and with this in mind, I'm minded to not look at the models until Sunday, as I feel they are prone to wide margins of error at the moment, in terms of looking beyond the 5 day timeframe. I'd advise others to do the same.

A temporary weak atlantic flow most likely as we enter December, quickly becoming overuled by more dominant forces taking place in the upper atmosphere which will manifest in an arctic profile ripe for cold air advection into mid lattitudes...

Edited November 23, 2016 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, More Snow said:

A pretty good update on the BBC weather just now.... looks like the AO set to stat negative... confirm wetter spell in to the start of December but then a more blocked set up with it turning colder with increased ice and snow risk.... he also confirmed that the computer models are struggling greatly with the NH set up.... so im guessing we wont see anything consistent from the model output anytime soon....

Sounds a lot better than last December then..phew

More encouraging output today, especially from the extended GEFS / Ecm ens mean which has improved from a colder perspective since the 00z.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

one of those times that the FIM is definitely the best model out there ! 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Sounds a lot better than last December then..phew

More encouraging output today, especially from the extended GEFS / Ecm which has improved from a colder perspective since the 00z.

Anythings better than last December.... yes the models over the last 24 hours seem to be getting the idea of what could be about to happen but then have a panic attack and go off track... wild swings for another 7-10 days i would guess... i defo think the UK is about to book a First Class ticket on the winter express one way to snowsville....

[Snowy L]

18z flatter and shifted eastwards compared to 12z. Though shortwave at t150 seems to have merged with bigger block of low pressure over Scandi. Could make a potential GH easier?

Edited November 23, 2016 by Snowy L

[Nick F]

 While the 18z trickles out ... the 12z GFS, unusually, more amplified with the upper flow looking at the northern hemisphere view than ECM on the 12z. Usually the other way round. ECM flat as a pancake days 9 and 10 compared to GFS. A lot more amplification upstream over U.S. on GFS ... wondering whether the GFS or ECM are handling properly the strong Pacific jet crashing into western U.S, with regards to mountain torque  that amplifies a trough over central/west U.S. of which there are a few at least over coming days. GFS too amplified? Or ECM not amplified enough? Either way, has ramifications for the flow downstream toward Europe

216                                                                  240

 

[Frosty.]

I'm very encouraged about early winter prospects, the models look so much more seasonal compared to this time last year and the LRF's offer hope of HLB, compare that to a year ago when we were staring down the barrel at a mushy exceptionally mild / warm and very wet December which is precisely what we got!..not this time

Edited November 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Geordiesnow]

Its actually quite funny too see the weak temp projected Scandi high would seems like it will not even land in Scandi but the set up is more or less the same that it will slip into Europe dragging up a SE'ly flow. Indications are this may not last all that long though.

Could be some cold air heading down from the NW for a brief time but when you hear all the constant hype about the end of November/start of December then you have to say the currents charts have been very underwhelming and looks like to my eyes going by the models the PV is forming strongly over the Arctic so I don't exactly see much of a negative AO as has been the case this morning.

Also why BBC weather feel it was right to even mention the AO at this range when there is no snowy set ups along the way, they just basically chucked themselves in the media spotlight which will no doubt get picked up by the media and taken out of context. They could be right but I would'nt bet on it,

 

[feb1991blizzard]

This is actually going to be a decent run, that shortwave is digging just the right amount SE, its not going to be a stonker but could be some snow showers.

[Snowy L]

Big difference in all of today's models compared to yesterday is that East Euro high weakens much quicker. Makes it easier for low pressure in Scandi to move south, which paves way for a Northerly.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Snowy L

[Banbury]

18 z lining up something from the North later next week

[Ali1977]

Well this looks pretty good to me, decent Greeny high forming and some cold Northerlies lining up to come in. Maybe not an all out snow blitz but I imagine some pretty harsh frosts in those slack winds. With coastal wintery showers up North.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs about to pounce with a northerly and  that Newfoundland shortwave ejected into the mid Atlantic,no phasing this time should be a cleaner route to cold

[January Snowstorm]

Indeed at 192hrs everything is primed for the mother of all northerlys!!

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Its actually quite funny too see the weak temp projected Scandi high would seems like it will not even land in Scandi but the set up is more or less the same that it will slip into Europe dragging up a SE'ly flow. Indications are this may not last all that long though.

Could be some cold air heading down from the NW for a brief time but when you hear all the constant hype about the end of November/start of December then you have to say the currents charts have been very underwhelming and looks like to my eyes going by the models the PV is forming strongly over the Arctic so I don't exactly see much of a negative AO as has been the case this morning.

Also why BBC weather feel it was right to even mention the AO at this range when there is no snowy set ups along the way, they just basically chucked themselves in the media spotlight which will no doubt get picked up by the media and taken out of context. They could be right but I would'nt bet on it,

 

Im pretty sure the BBC weather wouldnt have chucked themselves into the media spotlight without any advice from the met office first...it pretty much went along with what Ian F posted earlier...