Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[frosty ground]

Well the 12z is more like the 06z than its not like the 06z, so no backtrack in that regard. 

[Ravelin]

GFS goes for a second bite at the cherry, with the low at t192 off Greenland heading our way at t240..

 

 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Well the 12z is more like the 06z than its not like the 06z, so no backtrack in that regard. 

Well the 06Z had ice and snow for the first week of Dec and the 12Z has wind and rain for most so for a snow lover the difference is huge!  Usually when the outputs massively diverge we see a middle ground reached.  I fear this 12z is the middle ground between the 00z ECM and the 06Z GFS IE a slight ridge / high west of Greenland allowing lows on a mores southerly track from our NW,  but no full on Atlantic block with a strong northerly.  Fingers crossed the ECM later looks more like the 06Z GFS!

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Well the 12z is more like the 06z than its not like the 06z, so no backtrack in that regard. 

I think you need an eye test, deeply underwhelming too much shenanigans over to North America disrupting any chance of a decent ridge/block taking a hold - an incredibly unsettled run and throughly depressing too.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Changing Skies

[knocker]

Say good evening to the jet

[Ali1977]

As expected really, METO are good at this malarkey. Some form of temp Northerly, followed by some wet and windy phases , then who knows. Never a full on Zonal phase though, jet stream/PV/Strat all favourable for further into Dec possibly.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Changing Skies said:

I think you need a eye test, deeply underwhelming too much shenanigans over to North America disrupting any chance of a decent ridge/block taking a hold - an incredibly unsettled run and throughly depressing too.

Not sure I need an eye test to be honest..... The fact the run is not cold but is still unsettled is just the usual differences at that range compered to the predicted high pressure domminated outlook from the 12z's I would say the 06z was closer to the mark..... Not sure paying attention to detail at that range is useful. 

[tight isobar]

Upto 168 and compare is applicable. 

Tweaks are order of the day...and shortwave phasing was always on the cards.

Once again good modeling from a possible cold perspective. 

Evolution is developing and the models although struggling' output is  firming.

Over to the ecm 12z...for compare @216...

[bobbydog]

Fortunately it's FI so unlikely to happen. Just as well really as this storm would have countrywide consequences-

That would make storm Angus seem like a fart!

[nick sussex]

I'm underwhelmed so far , the GFS 12hrs which is like chewy chuck steak compared to a decent bit of entrecote on the 06hrs run.

The big issue with the GFS 12hrs is that the shortwave deepens rapidly and engages the low over the UK too far north, you want any shortwave weaker running se and allowing the ridge to the nw to help the colder air south.

The UKMO is difficult to judge, much depends where the low in the west Atlantic goes but we're in the bizarre scenario where an amplified upstream pattern is in danger of delivering zip apart from cold rain and some mountain snow for the goats to enjoy!

The models really seem to be making a drama over delivering a clean route to something colder and more wintry. We await the ECM which hopefully will stop the evenings descent into obscurity.

[Gael_Force]

55 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi

I did say the 06z is OK before D6 as the data is more relevant, but after that the lack of data will make it perform poorer. Of course over a period of a year where you have weather patterns that are much easier to predict the margins of error will be less and drive down the average, but in situations of high volatility like the current post D6 NH profile any poor data in = poor data out exponentially. 

Anyway the 12z is coming out and we will see if the 06z was onto something.

There were two occasions this summer where NOAA requested radiosonde data for the 06z and 18z runs. This happened over several days in the case of the awful to model Hermine and also for Matthew. I wonder if there are any back dated data to show if those runs performed better with extra soundings.

[Snipper]

Not been able to view postings. Is everything still next week?

[warrenb]

On the 6Z ENS there was a distinct split at the end and I suspect the 12z has gone with the mild.

[Mucka]

I don't think we can expect any run to run consistency yet, this is a new signal, could be something or nothing but at least it has some ensemble support and other models are sniffing a similar synoptic.

For example here is the 12z control which could easily have been the Op but would that have been any more conclusive?

The good thing is that the pieces of the puzzle are not scattered in FI but in the mid term so we should see quite a quick evolution toward a more blocked Atlantic if it is not another false dawn.

[Jonan92]

There has to be an error in the control run

 

180

192

 

Where does that low come from?

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

There are still some very interesting ENS at 192 , some very good!!

Agreed

[A.J]

Genuine question......I read lots of comments about shortwaves which cause me confusion.....for example on today's 12z  GFS output, there has been mention of a spoiler 'shortwave' which manifests itself around the T168 mark off the canadian coast?.....I can see no shortwave, but can see a closed Low and to my (admittedly) untrained eye it first appears on the GFS output (atlantic pressure/T850) as a closed low at T75, and stays closed during it's evolution until it merges (phases) with a filling area of low pressure situated to the north of Scotland.....Synoptically a shortwave is shown as a kink in the pressure pattern, so am I missing something, or is it just an expression that is being used incorrectly?....cheers 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

Genuine question......I read lots of comments about shortwaves which cause me confusion.....for example on today's 12z  GFS output, there has been mention of a spoiler 'shortwave' which manifests itself around the T168 mark off the canadian coast?.....I can see no shortwave, but can see a closed Low and to my (admittedly) untrained eye it first appears on the GFS output (atlantic pressure/T850) as a closed low at T75, and stays closed during it's evolution until it merges (phases) with a filling area of low pressure situated to the north of Scotland.....Synoptically a shortwave is shown as a kink in the pressure pattern, so am I missing something, or is it just an expression that is being used incorrectly?....cheers 

I would say definitively that it is an expression being used incorrectly. Kind of like when people talk about F1 instead of FI  It doubles its powers of annoyance when used in conjunction with one of those horrible cliches, like 'bite of the cherry.' 

[knocker]

I don't

4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Genuine question......I read lots of comments about shortwaves which cause me confusion.....for example on today's 12z  GFS output, there has been mention of a spoiler 'shortwave' which manifests itself around the T168 mark off the canadian coast?.....I can see no shortwave, but can see a closed Low and to my (admittedly) untrained eye it first appears on the GFS output (atlantic pressure/T850) as a closed low at T75, and stays closed during it's evolution until it merges (phases) with a filling area of low pressure situated to the north of Scotland.....Synoptically a shortwave is shown as a kink in the pressure pattern, so am I missing something, or is it just an expression that is being used incorrectly?....cheers 

I don't know whether this helps but it's an upper trough that disrupts at T168 which then tacks NE to phases in with the Icelandic low.

 

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

I would say definitively that it is an expression being used incorrectly. Kind of like when people talk about F1 instead of FI  It doubles its powers of annoyance when used in conjunction with one of those horrible cliches, like 'bite of the cherry.' 

More runs are needed but let's get the cold air in first

I'm pleased with the models so far today, the Gfs 6z was a cracker and there is lots of potential in the GEFS 12z for an Arctic blast in around 1 week from now!

[SMU]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Steve

Could you post please?, I'm on mobile and cant access.

Hi mate

loads of charts above posted

heres the GFS mean at 168 & 192

certainly an upgrade-

assuming that all verifies then its all down to the energy moving ESE at 192 & whether it can slide like the control...

All in all a good 12z suite - Mean down to -3 after 192

S

 

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

Genuine question......I read lots of comments about shortwaves which cause me confusion.....for example on today's 12z  GFS output, there has been mention of a spoiler 'shortwave' which manifests itself around the T168 mark off the canadian coast?.....I can see no shortwave, but can see a closed Low and to my (admittedly) untrained eye it first appears on the GFS output (atlantic pressure/T850) as a closed low at T75, and stays closed during it's evolution until it merges (phases) with a filling area of low pressure situated to the north of Scotland.....Synoptically a shortwave is shown as a kink in the pressure pattern, so am I missing something, or is it just an expression that is being used incorrectly?....cheers 

You are correct in this case... its a closed low - although you can get this sheared apart with ridging to create 2 shortwaves - 1 moving back west towards canada & 1 sliding ESE towards Ireland...

Edited November 23, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Nouska]

57 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

Where does that low come from?

Some of the NWP has been suggesting tropical/subtropical genesis in the central Atlantic around the time frame - I suspect the rapid formation is just an example of the runs that develop.

Edit ... good grief - put the specs on before jumping to type. I've no idea is the answer to the low south of Greenland. Thought it was the cut-off low in the central Atlantic.

Higher up in the atmosphere good continuity for cross polar influences to be in evidence around day eight.

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by Nouska

[Summer Sun]

Op on the warm side of the mean at the end I make it 8 or 9 days when the 850's are at or below 0

[DOdo]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

More runs are needed but let's get the cold air in first

I'm pleased with the models so far today, the Gfs 6z was a cracker and there is lots of potential in the GEFS 12z for an Arctic blast in around 1 week from now!

I couldnt agree with you more Frosty. Noo wrist slashing doom and gloom in any of those models. I for one am enjoying  the Roller Coaster  Ride and Rides to follow.