Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Ravelin]

As I thought looking at the t240 chart, it's not a toppler and hangs around to the end of the run.

Could that big low off Canada even undercut? No, I'm getting too carried away now.

Edited November 23, 2016 by Ravelin

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the mean ecm and spreads and it says the gfs op days 8 thru 10 just isn't feasible to that degree. Maybe a brief northerly/norwester affecting the n of the country but if anything, the spread indicactes rising temps later on. London graph due in ten mins which may illustrate this better

"Isn't feasible" seems a little strong BA?? We're discussing north Atlantic heights here - true, the ECM got the last case right, but the GFS does often trumps the ECM in this specific area?

[Singularity]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the mean ecm and spreads and it says the gfs op days 8 thru 10 just isn't feasible to that degree. Maybe a brief northerly/norwester affecting the n of the country but if anything, the spread indicactes rising temps later on. London graph due in ten mins which may illustrate this better

How many ensembles follow the det. run in terms of the Newfoundland low cutting through any attempted mid-Atlantic ridging?

If many or most do and that solution turns out to be wrong (big if), the knock-on effects (door open for the indicated strong poelward surge of tropical maritime air to angle to the NE instead of N) mean that the whole ensemble guidance could be undermined.

The 06z GFS has surprised me with its magnitude of ridging, though!

[Jonan92]

Amazing run in FI

[Jonan92]

It should be noted that at 144h ECM is completely different to UKMO, GFS and even GEM

ECM

Ukmo

GFS

GEM

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

18 hours ago, IDO said:

 

 

Edited November 23, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Zakos]

The persistence of blocking in the atlantic and low heights over iberia on the 06z is remarkable

What a fantastic way to start winter, hopefully the ECM jumps on board.

[Frosty.]

I'm lost for words, magnificent Gfs 6z! reloads galore of glorious cold, severe frosts, snow..it's got the lot!

Edited November 23, 2016 by Frosty.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Apologies to all round here gang my phones having a mad moment it's not letting me delete a thing hahaha. 

 

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just looking at the mean ecm and spreads and it says the gfs op days 8 thru 10 just isn't feasible to that degree. Maybe a brief northerly/norwester affecting the n of the country but if anything, the spread indicactes rising temps later on. London graph due in ten mins which may illustrate this better

To be fair though the ecm has its moments we have many rogue runs then it drops it again. So although the ecm wins hands down its not untouchable. 

There's know reason why the gfs isn't on to something because we're all waiting for the next round of amplification to filter through and a mid Atlantic Ridge up into Greenland isn't completely a surprise? 

Let's see how the next few runs go 

[Gavin Hannah]

06Z just made me weep tears of joy...... lol. good consistency for the next 5 - 7 days and then a humdinger of a cold blast.  Bearing in mind this type of setup has been seen before in a few previous runs, what I want to see is a repeat of such a setup move closer into the reliable.

12Z will be interesting, I predict a major come down lol.

[booferking]

GFS Control looking good as well. Incoming 

 

[Yarmy]

The control run at T162 is nearly identical to the op:

 

The mean is consistent too:

 

The difference between these and the 0z runs is the increased amplification of the second ridge on the eastern seaboard.

[Nouska]

1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

To be fair though the ecm has its moments we have many rogue runs then it drops it again. So although the ecm wins hands down its not untouchable. 

There's know reason why the gfs isn't on to something because we're all waiting for the next round of amplification to filter through and a mid Atlantic Ridge up into Greenland isn't completely a surprise? 

Let's see how the next few runs go 

Absolutely! The monthly products have suggested a form of this pattern.

Examination of historical situations where the upper atmosphere is configured as now, allows for this pattern to develop.

Every situation is unique in how the lower atmosphere responds with surface features but IMO, absolutely no reason that some form of what we see in this run could not happen. The very fact complicated algorithms are producing the output is testament to that.

[booferking]

Just now, Yarmy said:

The control run at T162 is nearly identical to the op:

 

The mean is consistent too:

 

The difference between these and the 0z runs is the increased amplification of the second ridge on the eastern seaboard.

Yea that second ridge is the one to watch if it amplifies and joins the Atlantic ridge we are in business like the GFS OP has shown..

[karlos1983]

B-E-A-UTIFUL!! it's being modeled, so it most certainly IS possible.

What a run from the GFS. Likey likey, come to Blighty!!

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok, the next few days are going to be interesting. The next 5 days will be key to what happens next week. I'm seeing good run to run model consistency up to this sunday / monday. We've seen with the 06z what can happen if the chips fall just right. I'm keeping all my fingers and toes crossed.

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

B-E-A-UTIFUL!! it's being modeled, so it most certainly IS possible.

What a run from the GFS. Likey likey, come to Blighty!!

It's the best run of the season and a sign of better times this December compared to last December's horrors! 

[frosty ground]

To me there has been a shift in the Ensembles from the 0z, not just the Operation Run.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=239&y=30&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0&type=0 (0z)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=239&y=30&run=6&runpara=0&ext=1&type=0 (06z) (Currently short version only)

[tight isobar]

Gfs 6z..is synoptique stunning!  And time realms of to good also.

Perhaps more vividly' is tje evolution more than feasible. 

Hemispheric 'ramifications' being alluded to now via output. ..

Watch out for some cracking output coming into more reliable! !!

Edited November 23, 2016 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

Caveat re the 06z is if something upstream or over the arctic has signifcally changed -completely out of the ordinary - but we use ens to catch this. 

MWB - not feasible in respect of the ecm suite. Clearly, it's the atmosphere - anything is feasible more than a few days away!

at the moment, given the swings in op output from gfs and the wide range of ens members suite to suite, I'm not taking this too seriously. 

[Summer Sun]

Op and control on the cold side of the mean at the same time though the mean does go below 0 for a short time

[phil nw.]

Running through the different models it looks like bouts of further Atlantic ridging will show up through the next couple of weeks so even if the 06 GFS run is overdoing things we are likely to see further attempts.

The area to look out for this evening is whether the other models show the gap between the Greenland vortex and Newfoundland low that's on the 06 GFS and doesn't phase it with the main vortex around T120hrs. 

It's is all down to how strong the different runs calculate the Canadian height anomalies.

Either way a weakened vortex,a wavering and split jet with +ve height anomalies across N.America all make for fascinating model watching.  

[nick sussex]

Never has the phasing or not of two lows meant so much to coldies.  This phase drama is really the key or the latest possible phasing, if the ECM is correct then it all goes pearshaped because as the upstream pattern amplifies you end up with a swathe of shortwave energy stuck to the nw of the UK.

You can just about get away with it if the phasing comes much later but as you can see from the GFS 06hrs run how good the evolution could be without any phasing of those lows.

Lets see what the NCEP state forecasts make of this as to which model they prefer, either way we'll have to wait to this evening.

Edited November 23, 2016 by nick sussex

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Never has the phasing or not of two lows meant so much to coldies.  This phase drama is really the key or the latest possible phasing, if the ECM is correct then it all goes pearshaped because as the upstream pattern amplifies you end up wit a swathe of shortwave energy stuck to the nw of the UK.

You can just about get away with it if the phasing comes much later but as you can see from the GFS 06hrs run how good the evolution could be without any phasing of those lows.

Lets see what the NCEP state forecasts make of this as to which model they prefer, either way we'll have to wait to this evening.

The 6z is generally the least blockie of the GFS runs I always thought. I just find it hard to believe that both the op and control could be so wrong at such a timeframe.

The 6z has newer data too, hopefully they have picked up on a new signal.